Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 108, August 2020 — It's Live At Last

Our World Will Never Be The Same

Covid or no covid, our society was reaching a tipping point. Ten years from now, our world will look very different. Better or worse will depend on what we do now.

The Big Picture — Two Books & More

• The Fourth Turning
  • I recently read The Fourth Turning by William Strauss & Neil Howe. The authors see history as a repeating cycle, each one lasting about four generations. It was published in 1997 and seems to have foreseen the kind of changes society is undergoing today.
  • The Wikipedia article, Strauss-Howe generational theory gives a good (but fairly long) summary of the book.
  • History Creates Generations, Generations Create History is an edited transcript of a February interview with Neil Howe and contains a link to the full video. Here are a few quotes to whet your appetite.
    • Major civic crises help redefine who we are as a nation politically and institutionally in fundamental ways about once every 80 or 90 years.
    • When you look at this new populism — which basically believes in the power of ordinary people — it historically always means authoritarianism.
    • Millennials were raised with order and to be risk-averse. They're also very community oriented. The CDC has 150 youth risk surveillance indicators that are all way down. Millennials want to create a world in which people can live in a more supervised way, live a good life, and not have so much uncertainty and risk.
    • That era was an era full of populist dictators all around the world. It's very similar to the era we're in today. Think back on the mood in the late 1920s and 1930s. You had the desperation and the rise of all these authoritarian dictators with no global concert of nations to restrain them, much like today. Think of the world now. We no longer have a concert of nations. We're all going different directions. NATO is toothless. No one is signing treaties anymore. The mood globally was very similar back then. The mood in term of feelings of inequality was very similar, including the actual trend in inequality.
    One of these days the younger generations will wake up to just how badly my generation has shafted them. There is not enough money to pay all our 'entitlements'. I suspect that some of those 'entitlements are going to disappear.
  • They Predicted 'The Crisis of 2020 .... in 1991. So How Does This End? *
    Two scholars coined the term millennial and developed a fan base for their grim theories. Now, the surviving one sees a generational realignment happening in American politics that does not bode well for Republicans.
• The Storm Before the Calm
  • A much more recent book The Storm Before the Calm by George Friedman sees a similar pattern where two cycles of about 50 and 80 years are coming together for a crisis period now.
  • George Friedman on The Gallup Podcast: Will the 2020s Be a 'Storm' That Leads to 'Calm' in the U.S.? is a 42 minute podcast where the author discusses the book.
  • The Beginning of the Cyclic Shift is a more recent article discussing current events as they form part of the dramatic change that Friedman predicts will take place over the next decade.
• The Stumble-Through Economy by John Mauldin has some points about how the current situation fits with the above. Highly recommended. Here are a few quotes to whet your appetite.
  • Thanks to forces that were already in motion and coronavirus as the trigger, we are out of good choices. Every possible fiscal, monetary, social, and political policy will have negative effects, some larger than others. All we can do is choose who gets hurt and in what ways. That's a bad place to be, but it's where we are.
  • It is not 'capitalism" in any meaningful sense when people and businesses get bailed out of their mistakes. Repeatedly. Companies that should have failed become zombies, consuming resources and preventing innovation. The result is slow growth and inefficient capital allocation.
  • With interest rates arbitrarily low, it is now cheaper for large companies to buy their competition than to compete.
  • Debt is future consumption brought forward. You balance the scale by spending less in the future, which is why we talk about "burdening our grandchildren" with debt. Unproductive debt reduces future growth, which is yet another way our children pay for our spending today.
  • It has reached the point where these future generations can't bear much more. Our grandchildren have their hands full. So do our children. Which means, if we want to keep spending, we must pay for it ourselves. Which raises the question, not just in the US but all over the developed world, with what?
  • Having talked with both Neil and George, they both still see the true problems developing in the latter part of this decade. That coincides with my own concept of The Great Reset, centered around the accumulation of debt.

Final thought. "On the Left today is a push for a Cultural Revolution, washing history clean of the "olds"... and putting up a new regime, with special rules for special groups ... whilst the Right digs in its heels, determined to defend its way of life with more troops, more designated enemies, more Patriot Acts... more surveillance... more control..." I think things are going to get a lot worse before we settle into a new paradigm of how society should run.

China vs The Rest

In some ways, China and America are already at war. Same is true on the border with India. With luck, it will never become a shooting war, but one small miscalculation somewhere and that's what could happen. The following collection should give you a better idea of what's really going on.

• From China to India
  "Giving the United States broad access to the Chinese market, on the financial order of Chinese exports to the United States, would have undermined the financial foundations of the Chinese system — a system that had to a great extent funded the creation of China's industrial system, and depended on both domestic consumption and foreign sales to balance it."
• Eroding Confidence in One Country, Two Systems
  "Beijing fears the ways the city can be used to stoke public unrest on the mainland more than it fears alienating investors. Don't expect it to back down."
• To 'Protect Young Minds,' Hong Kong Moves to Overhaul Schools *
  "China's leaders have pushed the territory to revamp an education system they see as having bred young rebels who have helped drive pro-democracy protests.
  This one shows just how far things have gone since the article above.
• This one is probably the best short piece for an overview.
  Back to the Future: China and the US
  "The solution on both sides is to hurl insults. The Americans hint that the Chinese are responsible for the coronavirus. The Chinese have a global effort to show that the virus has crippled the United States permanently and that China is now the leading power. Propaganda wars may be fun to watch, and hurling insults should perhaps be an Olympic sport, but power is not a matter of perception, at least not when bombs start landing and bankruptcies mount. The U.S. will continue to hurl insults while undermining the Chinese by shifting the supply chain. China will continue seeking a military advantage."
• China's Factories Are Back. Its Consumers Aren't. *
  The manufacturing giant is once again turning out steel and cellphones. But job losses and pay cuts have left its people reluctant to spend — a problem the U.S. and Europe may soon face, too.
• China warns Australia will pay an 'unbearable price' if it sides with the US in a 'new Cold War'
  China has warned that if Australia sides with the US in an impending 'Cold War', it will have a "catastrophic effect".
• U.S. Is Using Taiwan as a Pressure Point in Tech Fight With China *
  The Trump administration is challenging Chinese access to Taiwan's high-tech supply chain — and, by extension, Beijing's influence over the island it claims as its territory.
• China's 'OK Boomer': Generations Clash Over the Nation's Future *
  A commercial extolling Chinese youths has set off a debate over whether they are too nationalistic — and their prospects too limited — for the country's good.China's 'OK Boomer': Generations Clash Over the Nation's Future
• In Hong Kong, China Threatens Businesses and Workers *
  Beijing is using fear and pressure to drum up support for its increasingly hard-line stance in the Asian financial capital, threatening its status as a global business center.
• Chinese Agents Helped Spread Messages That Sowed Virus Panic in U.S., Officials Say *
  American officials were alarmed by fake text messages and social media posts that said President Trump was locking down the country. Experts see a convergence with Russian tactics.
• China Limited the Mekong's Flow. Other Countries Suffered a Drought. *
  New research show that Beijing's engineers appear to have directly caused the record low levels of water in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.

Stop Press

Just as I was almost ready to send the newsletter, I came across The Great Acceleration — How 2020's Crises Are Bringing the Future Faster is a PDF from a power point presentation. It sums up some of the major things happening in the world today better and more succintly than anything else I've seen. A lot of it is specifically about the US but the things it talks about affect us all.

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WW 2020 Trips

Money Back Guarantee. If any border restriction prevents someone from coming on a trip they booked, we will give them a 100% refund.

September

The two trips below each have three bookings. Both depend on more borders opening. If no one else books and no one else cancels, we will run them at a loss for the people who have been so patient in waiting to see what would be possible. Better still, save 20%. Our 20% advance purchase discount will remain in effect on the five trips below until 31 August.

• New Date. * Kakadu Short Overnight No. 2: 6-12 September
  List price: $2095. Because of the current border closure, we have delayed departure by a week. We have also added a night at the Kakadu Billabong Safari Camp, owned and operated by the local Aboriginal traditional owners.
• Finke Gorge & Watarrka National Parks: 6-26 September
  List price: $3695. Two sections, either of which can be done on its own.
  Note. The date was originally listed as starting on 1 September. It will now start a bit later, but maybe before the listed date. Also, we will have a vehicle driving from Darwin to Alice Springs to do the tour. Free ride for anyone who is interested.
  Special note. If we can't do the advertised program in central Australia, we may replace this with an exploratory trip to the NT Gulf Country.

Late 2020

• Kakadu Family Walk No. 3: 27 September - 3 October
  List price: $1995.This trip would suit anyone looking for a particularly leisurely trip, even if not bringing their own children.
• Kakadu Birdwatching & Nature Special: 4-17 October
  Assuming borders open, this is a definite departure. List price: $2895. Much more than birds. This trip would suit anyone looking for a particularly leisurely trip, even if they are not 100% interested in birds.
• Kakadu Highlights No. 10: 18-31 October
  List price: $2795. I enjoy this trip so much that I ran it for a group of family and friends when we didn't get enough bookings last year.

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Covid Tales

In early April, I began a Covid Blog page. In it, I've been putting updated statistics from around the world as well as stories I've found interesting which might not have made it into popular consciousness. There is a lot to think about there. Here are a few more worth a browse.

What We Know — And Don't Know — About The Disease

• 'Superspreading' events, triggered by people who may not even know they are infected, propel coronavirus pandemic
  Most spread the virus to only a few people — or none at all. But studies show a small percentage transmit it with alarming efficiency.
  Story includes a link to a very informative short video. One of the best I've seen. I put this on my covid blog page but it's too good not to share here as well.
• From The New Scientist, Why strange and debilitating coronavirus symptoms can last for months
  From extreme fatigue to weight loss, numbness, breathing difficulties and chest pain, some people's covid-19 symptoms are proving very hard to shake.
• A similar story from The Guardian, As Covid-19 persists around the world, death is not the only outcome to fear
  There are worrying trends about long-term damage, even in those with milder symptoms. "Some patients with mild symptoms are saying that they have had symptoms for weeks or months, a far cry from our usual ideas of "mild" disease. There is some evidence that symptoms like fatigue, which can be very long-lasting, are hitting people who barely had any issue earlier on in their affliction."
• This health crisis has turned into a social, economic and imminent financial crisis
  "It is important to remember that a return to "normal" will not be possible until there is an effective treatment and/or a vaccine. After all, we are still a long way away from herd immunity; even in a very severely hit city like New York, only 20 percent of the population has developed antibodies."
• Coronavirus may never go away, even with a vaccine
  Embracing that reality is crucial to the next phase of America's pandemic response, experts say.
• Six Months of Coronavirus: Here's Some of What We've Learned *
  Much remains unknown and mysterious, but these are some of the things we're pretty sure of after half a year of this pandemic.
• This coronavirus mutation has taken over the world. Scientists are trying to understand why.
  "The mutation doesn't appear to make people sicker, but a growing number of scientists worry that it has made the virus more contagious."
• The ultimate covid-19 mystery: Why does it spare some and kill others?
  And why does it kill some young people with no obvious other conditions. Interesting video link in article. So much remains unknown.
• Coronavirus autopsies: A story of 38 brains, 87 lungs and 42 hearts
  "....the virus appears to attack the lungs the most ferociously. They also found the pathogen in parts of the brain, kidneys, liver, gastrointestinal tract and spleen and in the endothelial cells that line blood vessels, as some had previously suspected. Researchers also found widespread clotting in many organs."
  If you are interested in learning just what the virus can do to you, this one is well worth the read.
• People probably caught coronavirus from minks. That's a wake-up call to study infections in animals, researchers say.
  The minks on Dutch fur farms first got sick in mid-April, showing symptoms ranging from runny noses to severe respiratory distress. They had caught the novel coronavirus from human handlers, the government later said, and soon farmed minks appeared to have passed it back to two other people, in the world's first reports of animal-to-human transmission since the pandemic began.
  Cats get Covid. they are definitely a potential problem.
• Our Covid Blog page has links to many more things that didn't get much of a mention in the mainstream news. Definitely worth a browse.

How Covid Will Change The World

• The pandemic is making people reconsider city living, trading traffic for chickens
  Freed from — or pushed out of — cities, people are making big moves to less-populated areas
• Coronavirus Threatens the Luster of Superstar Cities *
  Similar to the above. Urban centers, with a dynamism that feeds innovation, have long been resilient. But the pandemic could drive a shift away from density.
• 'Covid baby bust' could lead to half a million fewer births next year
• A warning from South Korea: the 'fantasy' of returning to normal life
  Vigilance and nimbleness over coronavirus outbreaks are critical in restarting economies.
• 11 ways the pandemic will change travel
  It will be a long time, maybe never, before travel gets back to where it was.
• Retail won't snap back. 3 reasons why COVID has changed the way we shop, perhaps forever
  Even in places that are now COVID-free spending remains subdued, and different.
• The Virus Changed the Way We Internet *
  With many stuck at home during the pandemic, Americans have been spending more of their lives online. This is how our habits have changed.
• Frustrated and struggling, New Yorkers contemplate abandoning the city they love
• We Need Amazon During the Coronavirus. That's a Problem *
  With competitors closing, online retail giants are poised to be the only ones standing after the pandemic.

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We May Need More Guides Next Year

Our business is incredibly seasonal. In an extreme case like this year had been shaping up to be, something like 75% of our total business was going to come in a two month period. We need guides who are happy to lead one or two trips per year. The more flexible he or she can be the better it is for us — and them. More flexibility means more likelihood of getting work.

If you have done one of our trips, you know the kinds of things the guide needs to be able to do. If you think you might be interested, please start by reading our Willis's Walkabouts Guide Qualifications document. After reading that, if you still think you might like to become a guide, send us an email and we'll send you more info. There is a lot of work and a lot of reading involved. Please keep that in mind before sending the email.

Assistant Guides

Our prices do not allow us to pay assistant guides on any trip. We can, however, offer a free place on some trips to experienced bushwalkers who are prepared to help with a lot of the work and carry a bit of extra weight. It's not easy, but it can be very rewarding. It might also help me keep leading trips for a few more years than would otherwise be the case. If you think you might be interested in acting as an unpaid assistant on a trip, send me an email and we can take it from there.

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News About This Newsletter

Restricted websites. The NY Times and Bloomberg Business Week both allow non-subscribers to look at ten free articles each month. I've got more links than that in this newsletter so I've marked them with a red asterisk (*) so that you can choose which are of most interest to you. The Washington Post and The Economist both have limits but I'm not sure what the current limits are so I've marked Washington Post (other than their free Covid coverage) and Economist articles with a double red asterisk (**).

Next Newsletter — September? October? I'll keep heading bush whenever I can. The more feedback on the new website and the sooner I get it, the more likely it is that I can get one out sooner rather than later.

As always, I welcome a bit of feedback about some of the things in this newsletter and suggestions for the next one.

Sending the newsletter

I'm now using a paid version of MailChimp to send all of the newsletters. I'm not sure what I'll do if the list goes over 2500.

walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au is the contact address on our website. If you would like to continue to receive these newsletters, please include this address in your "friends list" so that it isn't blocked.

Emails sent to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au are currently automatically forwarded to rrwillis at internode.on.net. If you want to send an email to that address, replace the word "at" with the symbol @. I am trying not to put that address any place where it can be harvested by spam bots.

We don't want to add to the mass of email spam. If you don't want our newsletter, please send us an email and let us know. We'll then delete your name from our newsletter list.

Our email address is walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au.

Note. Both MailChimp and the other program we use to send some of these newsletters have an automatic delete at the bottom. Clicking that link will delete you from the mailing list on the server but it will not delete you from our main database. One of the programs will not allow the auto delete to send me an email notifying me that a deletion has been made. If you want to be sure that you are removed from all further mailings, please send an email to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au

If you know someone you think would enjoy this newsletter, please forward it to them. The more people who get it, the more likely it is that I'll be able to run the trips which might interest you.

It's great to be going bush again.
Russell Willis

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