Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 112, February 2021 — A Post-Covid World

Covid Chaos

Our world will not go back to something resembling it's pre-pandemic state before 2022. Maybe never.

WW and Covid

We still had 15 people booked in two groups on our New Year trip three weeks before it started. Only seven began the trip. We had four people booked on our Bungles in the Wet trip four days before it began. Only three got there. We ran all three groups anyway.

Mandatory quarantine or not, as long as anyone is coming to Australia (or New Zealand) from overseas, we will continue to get occasional cases of community transmission. Victoria went back into lockdown at midnight on Friday 12 February. I suspect something similar will happen again. Governments will do what they can to stamp it out before it gets away but that means those booked on any particular trip may find they can't get here. Wherever possible, we will run the trip for those who can. I will repeat the notice near the top of our Availability and Specials page.

If any border restriction prevents someone from coming on a trip they booked, we will give them a 100% refund. That's a better deal than you'll get from some large companies which will give you a credit rather than your money back.

What's Happening

Here are a few things to consider when planning your next trip outside your home state.

• 'Vaccination certificates' needed for travel, work and play
  "Australians may have to prove they've had a COVID jab to travel overseas or access public services, with the federal government rolling out plans for digital and physical 'vaccination certificates." I suspect the day may come when you'll need a certificate for interstate travel.
• Vaccine Slippage
  "It is looking likely that most countries will miss their Covid-19 vaccination targets for 2021." .... "A return to pre-pandemic 'normal' is still at least a year away."
• Australia travel bubbles with New Zealand and beyond: Zero-risk approach pops bubbles
  Time and again, we've seen state borders close with almost no notice in Australia. This is not going to change any time soon.
• 'Dodged a bullet': Expert explains why WA may have escaped COVID spread
  But one comment was, "In any case, when you do a lockdown, the main people who are exempted from the lockdown are essential workers. So then just the people who are still moving around, and probably more likely, if anybody was infected, they would be." ... "So I think we got to be careful about how we're going to do this because we got this problem for another year or two. We need a more balanced approach, I think rather than a full lockdown if you have one or two cases."
• Viruses mutate. This has already caused problems and will inevitably cause more.
  • Study shows Oxford Covid vaccine has less protection against South African variant
    "Researchers say vaccines' focus must shift to protecting people from hospitalisation and death."
  • South Africa says AstraZeneca's vaccine is not very effective at stopping a variant from causing illness. *
    Having had the original version of the virus doesn't seem to prevent infection with the new one.
  • Covid-19 outbreak in Manaus suggests herd immunity may not be possible
    The outbreak "raises concerning questions as to how the coronavirus remains so virulent in a region where the majority of the population have already been infected.
• Many who have received the coronavirus vaccine wonder: What can I safely do? **
  The vaccinated ponder how to live their lives and, in a role reversal, are trying to protect their children.
  Experts "still don't know, for example, whether people who are vaccinated can get asymptomatic infections and pass them on to those who are not inoculated — which is why they urge people to continue to wear masks and practice social distancing even after receiving their shots. Scientists also are racing to determine how much protection vaccines offer against the highly transmissible variants popping up in the United States."
• For the scientifically minded: Inside the B.1.1.7 Coronavirus Variant *
  At the heart of each coronavirus is its genome, a twisted strand of nearly 30,000 "letters" of RNA. These genetic instructions force infected human cells to assemble up to 29 kinds of proteins that help the coronavirus multiply and spread.
  Incredible detail, probably more than you want to know but it does show what we're up against and how minor changes can have dramatic effects

The Zimbabwe Event

This one deserves a section on its own. The Zimbabwe Event Everything below is a quote from the article.

• Like the 'Ireland Event' I've been writing about recently, what is happening in Zimbabwe (and every country in Southern Africa) is driven by a combination of relaxed social mitigation policies AND the introduction of a more infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus variant."
• What is different is that Zimbabwe is a "weak state", not a strong, stable state like Ireland.
• What is different is that Zimbabwe is being hit by the South African-variant (501.V2), not the UK-variant virus (B117).
• Weak states do not have an effective political steam valve for popular discontent and elite conflict, resulting in war and violent regime change when a Covid Event hits. If the events of January 6th and the storming of the Capitol can happen in the United States, can you imagine what's possible in Harare? In Tehran? In Moscow?
• I think 2021 will be a Year of Civil War in weak states that are desperately poor.
• There are now four independent medical studies showing that the B117 variant is both more infectious AND more lethal than the baseline virus, versus zero medical studies showing only the same lethality.
• We now have multiple examples of a B117-driven Ireland Event, not just in Ireland and the UK, but also now in Portugal, Spain and Israel, and coming soon to the rest of continental Europe.
• The 'Israel Event' is particularly chastening, as the explosion in Covid cases occurred despite the most advanced vaccination program in the world, with close to 40% of the population vaccinated even as the Event occurred. As I wrote last week, one of the major consequences of a more infectious viral strain is that the percentage of the population that must be vaccinated before herd immunity brings down the R-number is significantly higher than with a less infectious viral strain, so that even 40% is only a modest help in limiting new infections. Also, and this is even more problematic news, Israel reports that a single dose of the vaccines that originally contemplated a two-dose regimen is notably less effective than was suggested in clinical trials. Whether this reduced efficacy for one dose of a two-dose vaccine is because of something particular to the B117 variant is unknown. Either way, that gets us to the last and more important point.
• The potential for reduced vaccine efficacy is at the heart of why I think the 501.V2 variant is so important, both in real-world and in market-world.

Think the author is exaggerating? Consider the situation in Mexico, the 15^th largest economy in the world. 'The Death Market': Oxygen Shortage Leaves Mexicans to Die at Home *. I can't help but wonder what the country will look like in another year or two.

Covid Will NOT Go Away

Variants mean the coronavirus is here to stay — but perhaps as a lesser threat **
  • "The world will have to prepare for the possibility, even the likelihood, that over the long term, the novel coronavirus will become a persistent disease threat"
  • "There is little consensus about exactly how often immunity will need to be boosted, how often vaccines will need to be updated, or how long it will take for the interplay between the virus and the immune system to settle into a steady state in which disease is less severe."

Protect Yourself

It's more than just getting a jab. New Scientist published an article The 5 best things you can do to boost the chance of a vaccine working. If you don't want to catch the disease, click the link, read the article and follow the advice.

Covid Blog

If you haven't had a look at my Covid Blog recently, have a quick scroll through. Some of the stories there are as interesting today as when they first came out.

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Protect Yourself

Phone Scams & Cybercrime

• Who's Making All Those Scam Calls? *
  Every year, tens of millions of Americans collectively lose billions of dollars to scam callers. Where does the other end of the line lead
  It's as bad or nearly as bad in Australia. I've had my share of such calls
• Protect yourself against cybercrime
  Cybercriminals don't take holidays. This Australian government website will help you protect yourself.

Wasted Money

• Three in five Australians are paying for online subscription services they don't use
  "Australians spend $3.9 billion a year on unused subscriptions and apps, said Tim Nicholas, a consumer advocate and co-founder of free reminder app GetReminded."
• Mum creates money-saving app after chance encounter
• I had a look, seems to be worth while. Check it out for yourself. Get Reminded

Privacy May Soon Be A Thing Of The Past

There are ways to fight back, but they do require you to make an effort.

• Company That Might End Privacy as We Know It *
  A little-known start-up helps law enforcement match photos of unknown people to their online images — and "might lead to a dystopian future or something," a backer says.
• I found the above from a link in Here's a Way to Learn if Facial Recognition Systems Used Your Photos *
  An online tool targets only a small slice of what's out there, but may open some eyes to how widely artificial intelligence research fed on personal images.
• A Vast Web of Vengeance *
  Outrageous lies destroyed Guy Babcock's online reputation. When he went hunting for their source, what he discovered was worse than he could have imagined.
  A single person with a grudge can destroy dozens of lives anywhere in the world where there is internet. And yes, when you read the details, you too could become a victim.
  I've seen it first hand. Someone I know was slandered when someone confused him with a child molester who shared the same name.
• What We Learned From Apple's New Privacy Labels *
  Requiring that app makers list the data they collect reveals a lot about what some apps do with our information (ahem, WhatsApp) but creates confusion about others.
• U.S. Smartphone Location Data Without Warrants, Memo Says *
  The disclosure comes amid growing legislative scrutiny of how the government uses commercially available location records.
• Your Apps Know Where You Were Last Night, and They're Not Keeping It Secret *
  Dozens of companies use smartphone locations to help advertisers and even hedge funds. They say it's anonymous, but the data shows how personal it is.
  The article contains several good links including one about how games can target kids.
  Scary stuff. Highly recommended.
• How to Stop Apps From Tracking Your Location *
  Hundreds of apps can follow your movements and share the details with advertisers, retailers and even hedge funds. Here's how to limit the snooping.
• The Tech That Will Invade Our Lives in 2021 *
  Spoiler: We're looking at another year of internet services dominating many aspects of our lives.

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Short Term Pain For Long Term Gain

The Four Horsemen: How did the world get into this mess, and how do we get out of it?
This article is written from a conventional economic point of view but it makes a lot of good points.
"choices will be further complicated by the need to make tradeoffs over time, since policy measures often have different effects in the short run and the longer run. This latter consideration is of particular importance. The first human imperative is always survival. Unfortunately, this implies a bias to near-term solutions without adequate consideration of their longer-term implications. Indeed, this human bias largely accounts for our current problems."

• Australia listened to the science on coronavirus. Imagine if we did the same for coal mining
  New research reveals how governments ignored decades' worth of scientific advice on how the Adani mine threatened to damage precious water supplies.
• Imagine if We Listened to Scientists Before the Hurricane *
  When community members know more about how to protect their homes and businesses, they become more resilient to disaster.
• Where 2020's Record Heat Was Felt the Most *
  2020 was effectively tied with 2016 for the hottest year on record, as global warming linked to greenhouse gas emissions showed no signs of letting up.
• I've Said Goodbye to 'Normal.' You Should, Too. *
  Climate change is upending the world as we know it, and coping with it demands widespread, radical action.
  "we won't see 'normal' again in our lifetimes."
  "The first thing we need to do is let go of the idea that life will ever be normal again"
• Forecast: Wild Weather in a Warming World *
  The polar vortex is experiencing an unusually long disturbance this year because of a "sudden stratospheric warming." Bundle up.
• Every Country Has Its Own Climate Risks. What's Yours? *
  Flooding, heat stress, fires? Tell us where you live and we'll tell you the threats.

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Making Sense of America

If you can't make sense of the recent election or how America functions (or doesn't function) these days, these articles will all help. There are lessons here for Australia. We ignore them at our peril.

Beyond Trump

• Why They Loved Him *
  The president tricked working-class voters. But the problems he railed about are real.
• The Next Trump *
  There is no one quite like him in the Republican Party. So where should we look for the president's inheritors?
  The link at the end is well worth a read. This could be the future. If Trump had been even half competent and if he had lived in the real world, I think he would have been re-elected. Could this man be the next?
• Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing
  The Fox News host's ratings have gone gangbusters, and many Republicans think he'd be a force in a Republican primary.
• Lincoln Knew in 1838 What 2021 Would Bring *
  Before Jefferson Davis there was John C. Calhoun. What rougher beasts do Trump, Hawley and Cruz prefigure?
• Trump's Rebellion Against Reality
  What the riot in the Capitol reveals.
  Yuval Levin's historical analysis of the dysfunctions that brought us here.
• The Coronavirus Becomes a Battle Cry for U.S. Extremists *
  White supremacists seek to stoke the fear and disruption caused by the pandemic to push their agenda and to recruit.
• The Art of the Lie? The Bigger the Better *
    • Lying as a political tool is hardly new. But a readiness, even enthusiasm, to be deceived has become a driving force in politics around the world, most recently in the United States.
    • "In the case of many people, "it is possible to make them feel and believe practically anything." No matter how untrue something might be, he wrote, "for the people who believe it, it becomes true. It attains validity and all the powers of truth."
    • "ordinary people who, Hitler realized, "more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie" because, while they might fib in their daily lives about small things, "it would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths."
    • Lies don't even need to be plausible to work. "On the contrary," he wrote, "the grosser, the bigger, the cruder the lie, the more readily is it believed and followed."

The Great Divide

The more I thought about it, the more I thought that this article was important enough to deserve a section on its own.
Two States. Eight Textbooks. Two American Stories. *
What is the truth? We analyzed some of the most popular social studies textbooks used in California and Texas. Here's how political divides shape what students learn about the nation's history.
The article has a number of interesting links for those who'd like to know more.

Health in America

• Why is life expectancy in the US lower than in other rich countries?
  The unequal development over recent decades led to an inequality between the US and other rich countries. In the US health spending per capita is up to four times higher, yet life expectancy is lower than in all of these countries.
  In the graphs, you can click to add a country to see how Australia, New Zealand or others compare.
• How Rich Hospitals Profit From Patients in Car Crashes *
  Hospitals use century-old lien laws to bypass insurers and charge patients, especially poorer ones, the full amount.
  One more example of how the American medical system fails so many of the people who depend on it.
• He Got Tested for Coronavirus. Then Came the Flood of Medical Bills. *
  Hidden costs for E.R. visits and other fees could cost people thousands of dollars.
• The article above got me wondering how many Americans go bankrupt because of medical bills. I found lots of stories. Details differed but they all agreed that medical bills influenced a large percent (some said over 60%) of bankruptcies. 2021 medical debt statistics had a good quote comparing America to Australia. "The average hospital stay in the U.S. costs $5,220 per day — compared to just $765 in Australia." The whole article is worth a read and has good links to other articles if you'd like to learn more.

Crossroads: Challenges and Choices in a Low Trust World

Crossroads: Challenges and Choices in a Low Trust World
Don't scroll through too quickly or you'll miss some very important points.

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Australia

• Think of coronavirus as a test run: Australian military leaders warn we must prepare for worse
    • "Our preparedness planning was probably a D-plus or a C-minus, but our response was much better"
    • "Almost all our trade — 98 per cent of our trade, imports and exports — depends upon foreign-owned shipping systems, so we are actually in a pretty fragile position."
    • It predicted that within three months, the nation as we know it would cease to function. Australia would be racked by social unrest and widespread unemployment.
  I suspect that this is true of many countries. This is one of the most important articles in this newsletter.
• Australia is out of the top ten in global anti-corruption rankings — why?
    • Out of 180 countries, NZ is #1. Australia is tied with several other countries at #11. The US is tied with Chile at #25.
    • "It is a wake-up call and raises serious questions about the ethical underpinnings of politics in this country."
    • Australia's decline since 2012 matters because trust in our institutions is fundamental to our functioning as a society. A lower score also sends a note of caution to those likely to invest in Australia.
• Australia's FoI system worst of any country involved in Julian Assange case
  "Italian investigative journalist Stefania Maurizi has spent the past five years trying to secure documents about the Julian Assange case. She has used freedom of information (FOI) laws in Sweden, Australia, the US and UK, and says Australia is by far the worst of the four jurisdictions when it comes to accessing documents through FOI. Maurizi says the problems she has had with Australia compel her to "unearth" what its authorities have to hide."
• Money matters more than people.
  • Scrapping responsible lending laws a 'disaster' that could drown Australians in debt, consumer groups say
    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg wants the law changed to help the Covid recovery despite the banking royal commission saying it should not be touched.
  • West Gate Tunnel saga shows risk of 'lock-in' on mega-projects pitched by business
    States across Australia are increasingly using market-led proposals to build infrastructure. The emerging problems reflect the inherent risks of projects that bypass proper public planning processes.
  • Morrison government flouts own review by proposing 'watered down' environmental standards
    Document given to Senate crossbenchers outlines plan to transfer environmental decision-making powers to states and territories.

Can You Make A Difference?

Yes! There are many things you can do. One of the simplest is to vote. I find that independents and minor parties almost always agree with my views more than the major parties so they get my first preferences. In the last NT election, 3 of 25 seats were decided by margins of less than 25 votes. (5, 13 and 22). In three other seats, the margin was less than the number of informal votes. The government has a majority of two. It wouldn't have taken much to change the outcome.

Australia in the World

This Fascinating World Map was Drawn Based on Country Populations
Scroll down to Asia and Oceania. Where did Australia go? The continent is completely dwarfed by neighbouring Indonesia and the Philippines.

Save the S.A. Outback

Just as I was about to send this newsletter, someone sent me a link to a petition to Save the S.A. Outback. The petition opposes legislation which, among other things, would remove stocking limits on pastoral leases and remove scientific expertise on the Board (the current Act requires an ecologist and a soil scientist). I see it as yet one more example of short term profit at the expense of long term environmental sustainability. I signed and urge you to click the link and do the same.

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Aboriginal Australia

WW on Aboriginal Land

The type of title varies, but most of our Australian tours take place on Aboriginal Land. Where possible, we attempt to work with traditional owners. Here are some of the ways we've done so or tried (we can't run a trip without bookings) to do so.

• Our tours on the Mitchell plateau have been approved by the Wunumbal Gaambera people who receive a payment for each visitor to their land.
• We include the Guluyambi Cruise on the East Alligator River in a number of our Kakadu trips.
• When we stay in accommodation in Jabiru, we try and stay at the Aboriginal owned and operated Anbinik Resort
• On some trips, we try and stay at the Aboriginal owned and operated Kakadu Billabong Safari Camp where we do a short cultural tour.
• It's harder to schedule, but on one trip we try and include the Animal Tracks Safari

There are other individuals and groups we want to work with, but, until the final agreements are in place, we can't say more than we hope to be able to offer more experiences where you get to interact with some of the local people and gain an understanding of their culture as it exists today.

The Old Days

• 65,000-year-old plant remains show the earliest Australians spent plenty of time cooking
  Charred plant remains from one of the oldest archaeological sites reveal that the first Australians ate a varied — and sometimes labour-intensive — diet.
• Burnt ancient nutshells reveal the story of climate change at Kakadu — now drier than ever before

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News About This Newsletter

Restricted websites. The NY Times allows non-subscribers to look at ten free articles each month. I've got more links than that in this newsletter so I've marked them with a red asterisk (*) so that you can choose which are of most interest to you. Bloomberg allows three free articles. The Washington Post and The Economist both have limits but I'm not sure what the current limits are so I've marked their articles with a double red asterisk (**).

Next Newsletter — March? April? Depends on how much time I have and how much changes with regard to our trips.

As always, I welcome a bit of feedback about some of the things in this newsletter and suggestions for the next one.

Sending the newsletter

I'm now using a paid version of MailChimp to send all of the newsletters. I'm not sure what I'll do if the list goes over 2500.

walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au is the contact address on our website. If you would like to continue to receive these newsletters, please include this address in your "friends list" so that it isn't blocked.

Emails sent to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au are currently automatically forwarded to rrwillis at internode.on.net. If you want to send an email to that address, replace the word "at" with the symbol @. I am trying not to put that address any place where it can be harvested by spam bots.

We don't want to add to the mass of email spam. If you don't want our newsletter, please send us an email and let us know. We'll then delete your name from our newsletter list.

Our email address is walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au.

Note. Both MailChimp and the other program we use to send some of these newsletters have an automatic delete at the bottom. Clicking that link will delete you from the mailing list on the server but it will not delete you from our main database. One of the programs will not allow the auto delete to send me an email notifying me that a deletion has been made. If you want to be sure that you are removed from all further mailings, please send an email to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au

If you know someone you think would enjoy this newsletter, please forward it to them. The more people who get it, the more likely it is that I'll be able to run the trips which might interest you.

If you care about Kakadu, please have your say.
Best wishes.
Russell Willis

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