Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 114, June 2021 — Crazy Times

More Covid Chaos

Our world will not go back to something resembling it's pre-pandemic state before 2022. Maybe never.

Australian lockdowns will almost certainly continue until a large majority of the population has been vaccinated. I've had my shots. Have you?

Here are a couple of recent stories to show what I mean.

• 'Increased transmissibility': WHO warns that Delta strain is taking over the globe
  The mutation, first identified in India, is taking over the world because of its extreme ability to spread with seemingly the most fleeting exposure.
• Herd Immunity ― Is It Possible?
  • Reaching 'Herd Immunity' Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe *
    Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.
    Just as true in Australia as in the US.
  • Will We Struggle to Reach Herd Immunity? *
    An earlier story along the same lines.
  • A City in Brazil's Amazon Rain Forest Is a Stark Warning about COVID to the Rest of the World
    Manaus and cities like it will continue to generate dangerous viral variants if vaccination campaigns are not expanded to broadly reach all nations, rich or poor.
  • South African Covid variant may cut antibody protection from Pfizer vaccine by two-thirds
    Study finds fall in antibody activity ― but scientists say jab should still protect against severe disease and death
  • I think this one is so important that I've put it in my Covid blog as well as here.
    They Relied on Chinese Vaccines. Now They're Battling Outbreaks. *
    More than 90 countries are using Covid shots from China. Experts say recent infections in those places should serve as a cautionary tale in the global effort to fight the disease.
    The article also suggests that the AstraZeneca vaccine is less effective than some of the others.
• Long-Covid
  • Many Post-Covid Patients Are Experiencing New Medical Problems, Study Finds *
    An analysis of health insurance records of almost two million coronavirus patients found new issues in nearly a quarter ― including those whose Covid infection was mild or asymptomatic.
  • This article from The New Scientist has the best summary of the problem I've seen.
    Long covid: Do I have it, how long will it last and can we treat it?
• Another one from The New Scientist
  New coronavirus variants detected in sewage before showing up in tests
• Coalition in talks with international airlines on digital vaccine passport for travel
  Controversial tech has already been adopted by some countries despite privacy concerns.

What We've Lost

Why get vaccinated? Click the link and see. I'll be seeing you

Covid Blog

I've managed five updates to my Covid Blog since the last newsletter. If you are at all interested in how covid is affecting Australia and the world, click the link and have a quick scroll through. The two June entries are particularly worthwhile.

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Bushwalking Tips

Keep the Pack Weight Down

My pack is still fairly heavy but it's been getting lighter for years. Here are some sites which might help you bring your own pack weight down.

• BackpackingLight
  It's full of all sorts of good ideas well worth a browse.
• Ultralight Gear
  is a page on the NSW Federation of Bushwalking Clubs website. It's got a good Australian slant to the content.
• Journey Towards Ultralight is a more personal story of how one couple did it.
• You almost certainly won't want to try this, but you might enjoy the story.
  Packing Light with 95 lbs: 40 Days Without Resupply in Far-Eastern Russia

New Fees

The NT has joined the growing list of places where you have to pay a fee to go bushwalking.
NT parks to charge fees to tourists
For now it applies only to a few specific trails but I suspect that it will be rolled out further in time.

Bushwalking and Covid

This came out a year ago, but it's still worth a read.
Hiking in the time of COVID-19

Something Different

Happy World Nude Hiking Day!
It was for the summer solstice in the northern hemisphere. Not so good for most of Oz. Maybe we need out own day on our summer solstice.

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The Environment

A miscellaneous collection of stories I found interesting.

Government vs Environment

• Environment department tried to bury research that found huge underspend on Australian threatened species
  Exclusive: Briefing note prepared for a meeting with government-funded scientists suggested they 'don't publish the paper'
• Morrison government's new environment commissioner 'toothless', conservation groups say
  Proposal criticised for not allowing the auditing of individual decisions about developments or the environment
• Government ignores concerns gas donors are getting whatever they want
  "Seven months on, the government has refused to answer how many jobs the gas-led recovery will create and is attempting to conceal documents about fast-tracking fossil fuel projects from the public."

Climate Change

• Climate explained: rising carbon emissions (probably) won't make the Earth uninhabitable
  Contains two interesting, very short, videos
• Biden's Climate Plan Means Tough Choices: Which Homes Get Saved? *
  The proposal represents an enormous effort to fight climate change, but it sidesteps the question of who will be forced to move because of rising water.
  Given the increasing number of floods we are seeing in Australia, it's time we started asking those questions.
• A gas tanker & icebreaker made it from China to Yamal in the 1st transit of the Northern Sea Route in February,
  "confirming that year-round safe navigation is possible," Russia says. There's no multi-year ice left there. Russia is now able to export natural gas from its frozen north to Chinese and other Asian ports without pipelines or longer sea voyages around Africa or through the Mediterranean.
• Drought Indicators in Western U.S. Flash Warnings of the 'Big One'
  Based on paleohydrology data, this ranks as one of the driest periods of the last 1,200 years, according to Elizabeth Klein, senior counselor to the Department of Interior who testified at Congressional hearing last month. California endured a six-year drought that ended in 2017, one of the state's longest and most severe dry spells. Experts warn of worse conditions in the state this summer. "We have never seen drought at the scale and the intensity that we see right now, and it is possible that this may be the baseline for the future," Klein warns.
• Texas Blackouts Point to Coast-to-Coast Crises Waiting to Happen *
  Continent-spanning storms triggered blackouts in Oklahoma and Mississippi, halted one-third of U.S. oil production and disrupted vaccinations in 20 states. As climate change brings more frequent and intense storms, floods, heat waves, wildfires and other extreme events, it is placing growing stress on the foundations of the country's economy: Its network of roads and railways, drinking-water systems, power plants, electrical grids, industrial waste sites and even homes. Failures in just one sector can set off a domino effect of breakdowns in hard-to-predict ways.
• Alternative Viewpoint
  • Judith Curry's Alternative View
  • Who is Judith Curry?

Diet and Climate

• Climate explained: how the climate impact of beef compares with plant-based alternatives
  Food choices make a difference to the climate impact of our diet. Every step towards eating a more plant-based diet results in lower emissions, better population health and reduced healthcare costs.
• If you don't eat meat but still wear leather, here are a few facts to chew on
  Leather isn't just a by-product of the meat industry, and raises serious moral questions for anyone who cares about animal rights.
• The Business of Burps: Scientists Smell Profit in Cow Emissions *
  Cattle produce more methane than many large countries. A solution could be an ecological and financial breakthrough ― and a Swiss biotech company may be on the cusp.

NT and Kimberley

• Glencore's McArthur River Mine rock dump expansion compared to Juukan Gorge in briefing document
• Fitzroy River in the Kimberley is
  • Fitzroy River under threat
    The Fitzroy River is under serious threat from massive industrial agriculture proposed by Gina Rinehart and NSW cotton agribusiness.
  • Environs Kimberley is the major local group trying to protect the Kimberley Environment.
  • Environmental water needs for the Fitzroy River
    You need to click the different sections to see the information.
  • Wikipedia article on the Fitzroy

Misc

• Worsening NSW mouse plague now an 'economic and public health crisis'
  Has some amazing video clips.
• A Man Found 15,000 Bees in His Car After Grocery Shopping *
  An off-duty firefighter in Las Cruces, N.M., whose hobby is beekeeping, safely removed the swarm from the man's car in an Albertsons supermarket parking lot.
• Could Covid give New Zealand's struggling tourism sector a chance to go green?
  A new report suggests the pandemic could present an opportunity to make the sector less environmentally harmful, but some operators are not so sure.
• Cats have lived around dogs for tens of thousands of years. So using dingoes to control feral cats will not protect our wildlife.

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Your Money

Would You Burn a $100 Note?

Master Your Personal Finances
Would you take a $100 note and burn it? If you have too much credit card debt, that's almost exactly what you are doing. The only difference is that the credit card company gets the money rather than it disappearing.

If your finances aren't in perfect shape, I highly recommend a browse of the website above. Here's another great quote from the author, "I don't dislike debt because I am a pessimist ― I dislike it because interest is about the dumbest thing in the world to spend your money on.

Misc ― There should be something here for everyone

• The Young Fall for Scams More Than Seniors Do. Time for a Warning. *
  Stop it with the ageism and delusions of invincibility. Young adults often don't recognize the bad checks coming at them, or fake job offers, either.
• All of the World's Money and Markets in One Visualization
  Read the explanatory notes next to 'derivatives' at the bottom. The world economy is likely due for a shock that will make the Covid lockdown seem insignificant.
• Capital Gains Problem
  The average worker's productivity has been growing steadily since World War II. Until about 1979, average hourly wages grew at about the same rate. Then something changed: Productivity kept growing, wages didn't.
  Good explanation of why the above is true.
• Treasurer Josh Frydenberg moves to permanently 'water down' ASX continuous disclosure rules
  Forcing firms to make major, financially sensitive information public as soon as they become aware of it limits the scope and temptation for company insiders to trade on that knowledge to make profits, or avoid losses, at the expense of uninformed investors.
  But the laws that make companies and their directors liable to litigation for failing to disclose important information are set to be relaxed.
• Beyond the Bitcoin Bubble *
  Yes, it's driven by greed ― but the mania for cryptocurrency could wind up building something much more important than wealth.
  It's an old story, but worth reading if you want to understand the way that blockchain technology could change the internet ― and lots more.
• Danes can take on a 20-year mortgage at exactly 0.0%
  I wonder how high real estate prices would skyrocket here if we had the same. And what would happen if interest rates ever went up.
• House hunters are rarely told the home energy rating ― little wonder the average is as low as 1.8 stars
  Somewhat misleading. My house would rate very low because it is designed for ventilation rather than air conditioning. Since I don't need aircon, my electricity bill is less than a quarter of the bills of many people I know in Darwin.
• Why Are Australian Homes So Cold? *
  Another issue the pandemic has thrown into sharp relief: our houses' lack of insulation. My first year in Australia was mostly in Sydney. I had never before been so cold indoors.
• Inflation Is Higher Than the Numbers Say *
  While government statistics say inflation is low, the reality is that the cost of living has risen during the pandemic, especially for poorer Americans.
  Easier to read than some of the more technical articles I've seen. Increasing inflation and devaluing the currency is the only way governments are going to be able to pay down their debt. I may yet see the day when a loaf of bread will cost $100.
• The "Long COVID" Economy
  "even if the virus disappears, we are going to spend years repairing the economic damage already done ... and more may be coming."
  The article suggests that the problems may be anti-inflationary. Australia, at least so far, doesn't have the same problems but most of the world does and we do a lot of trade.

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Our Society

"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong." Thomas Sowel. That quote sums up a lot of what I think is going wrong in our society today.

Disappearing Freedom

• Laws used to fight pandemic are in some cases weakening democracies, report says. *
• Charities slam government plan to deregister organisations that may commit crimes
  Charities say they could be stripped of their status for supporting protests and whistleblowers.
  A plan by the Morrison government that could see organisations stripped of their charity status because they might commit a crime will have a "chilling effect" on Australian democracy, the sector says.
  Guilty before a crime takes place!! ― is that the kind of society we want?
• Fears online safety law could censor all adult content and force sex workers off internet *
  Civil liberties groups say 'fast-tracked' bill goes beyond stopping bullying and blocking extremist content
• In Canada, Did a Comedian's Joke Go Too Far? *
  A Supreme Court case focused on a comedy routine mocking a disabled teenager could help shape the limits of free speech ― and humor ― in Canada.
  This one isn't as black & white as some of the others. What are the limits to free speech? If you limit it in one case that seems obvious, where do you then draw the line. Lots to think about here.

Reasoning With The Unreasonable

The Science of Reasoning With Unreasonable People *
Don't try to change someone else's mind. Instead, help them find their own motivation to change.

"There is a lack of personal responsibility everywhere, not just among managers. Our entire society has forgotten how to take responsibility. We have forgotten that life consists of setbacks and that you have to have safety margins for difficult times. We live in a spoiled society where people think they are entitled to a wonderful life. Well, this right does not exist in reality." Felix Zulauf

Government & Politics

• The Year the Earth Stood Still ... and ... The Year the Earth Still Stood
  "for someone like me, who is a WWII history buff, the contrast with how rapidly and effectively the US government responded to the attack on Pearl Harbor and how ineptly it has reacted to Covid is both shocking and depressing."
  "The most successful states diverged from overly stringent federal government guidelines and rapidly deployed vaccines to the elderly and essential workers. States that did so ― like North and South Dakota, Alaska, and West Virginia ―left those such as California in the dust. This once again illustrates that smaller, more nimble government is preferable to a lumbering bureaucracy. The experience in even more sclerotic and bureaucratic Europe, where vaccine rollouts have made the US look like a well-oiled machine, underscore this point. (The UK shifted in late December to a rapid-deployment, looser-restriction model similar to US states like West Virginia.)"
• A Top G.O.P. Pollster on Trump 2024, QAnon and What Republicans Really Want *
  Kristen Soltis Anderson has done some of the most in-depth surveys of the party's voters to date. Her findings are unnerving.
  Unnerving is a word from the NY Times. Not one I'd use. Very interesting for anyone interested in learning about America. Podcast has a link to a transcript.
• A sign of hope? Bipartisan group in Congress. *
  Even in highly polarised America, there is still a trace of cooperation between some parts of the major parties.
• Treasury warns JobMaker could encourage firms to lay off older workers

Work

• Thousands of unemployed Australians take up fruit picking
  A further 3500 who are fit and willing to do the work applied and were rejected ― calling some to question the insistence that farmers are 'desperate' for boots on the ground.
• Breaking the Garage's Glass Ceiling *
  Women are vastly outnumbered in the auto trades, but one pioneer, who died in 2019, is still inspiring others to pursue their dreams and lift one another up.
• A different way to make a living. Thieves Nationwide Are Slithering Under Cars, Swiping Catalytic Converters *
  The pollution-control gadgets are full of precious metals like palladium, and prices are soaring as regulators try to tame emissions. Crooks with hacksaws have noticed.

Big Tech

• Why Is Big Tech Policing Speech? Because the Government Isn't *
  Deplatforming President Trump showed that the First Amendment is broken ― but not in the way his supporters think.
• As Amazon Rises, So Does the Opposition *
  Stacy Mitchell knew that taking on a trillion-dollar company would be a lopsided fight. But the pandemic has not only made Amazon more essential. It has also made it vulnerable.
• Amazon Sues New York Attorney General to Block Covid-19 Charges *
  The company said the attorney general, Letitia James, had overstepped her authority in investigating workplace safety.
• The Radical Guidebook Embraced by Google Workers and Uber Drivers *
  A book based on ideas associated with a labor group from the early 20th century has provided a blueprint for organizing without a formal union.

Misc

• 'I Was Invisible': The Maid-Turned-Star Who's Taking On Racism in Brazil *
  Joyce Fernandes was a third-generation maid ― until an employer caught her reading a book. Now a rapper, author and TV host, she is spurring "uncomfortable" conversations on race.
  I suspect something similar could happen here.
• Christian Prophets Are on the Rise. What Happens When They're Wrong? *
  They are stars within one of the fastest-growing corners of American Christianity. Now, their movement is in crisis.
  "It's a symptom of our time. People don't trust institutions, and people think that all mainstream institutions are corrupt: universities, science, government, the media. They’re searching for real sources of truth."
  The result is that many congregations are awash in misinformation.
  Helps you to understand what's happening in the USA. Glad I'm not there.
• The Pandemic Emptied Europe's Cities. What Will Bring People Back? *
  City life came to a standstill from London to Berlin when the coronavirus struck. Now worries of a lasting exodus are pushing urban authorities to address long-festering problems.
• Will American Ideas Tear France Apart? Some of Its Leaders Think So *
  Politicians and prominent intellectuals say social theories from the United States on race, gender and post-colonialism are a threat to French identity and the French republic.
• An Outspoken Student Union Positions Itself at the Vanguard of a Changing France *
  To its critics, the 114-year-old Unef is the incarnation of the American-inspired ideas that threaten France's founding principles. Its leaders say it is the future.
• I've Studied Terrorism for Over 40 Years. Let's Talk About What Comes Next. *
  "We spent decades looking for a threat from overseas, when we needed to be looking closer to home."
  "a long process of erosion of governing structures and prevailing social and political norms that precedes terrorism. A crisis of the legitimacy of democratic institutions aptly describes what the United States faces now, but the crisis need not culminate in terrorism if we understand how it happens."
• Policing Is Doing What It Was Meant to Do. That's the Problem. *
  Blaming racist violence on "bad apples" misses the point.
• Why the Wealthy Fear Pandemics *
  The coronavirus, like other plagues before it, could shift the balance between rich and poor.
• The Boredom Economy *
  The pandemic is terrible. It can also be tedious. And that tedium is shaping what people buy and how productive they are.
• Surprise! New data shows decreasing proportion of younger drivers on our roads, but more seniors staying behind the wheel
  A greater percentage of over 80s than 18-24 year olds are driving.
• 'Politics of Hate' Takes a Toll in Germany Well Beyond Immigrants *
  As the far-right gains traction, harassment and intimidation of local officials are growing, threatening democracy at the grass roots.
  Germany is the 4^th largest economy in the world. Not just the US for violence.
• Remote Work Is Here to Stay. Manhattan May Never Be the Same *
  New York City, long buoyed by the flow of commuters into its towering office buildings, faces a cataclysmic challenge, even when the pandemic ends.

The Ruling Class

America Has a Ruling Class *
Why do members of the political elite insist that they're not?

Crises, Public vs Private Life

• The Institutionalization of Crises
• The Origins of the Public and Private
• In Praise of Private Life
  "It is important to remember that there were millions of Americans who did not vote, and millions who voted without believing that it mattered all that much who won. Who would become president was simply not an important dimension of their lives, and regardless of all the urgency that was pressed on them, they occupied themselves with other affairs."
  Many other great quotes. Highly recommended.
• We're embarrassingly unprepared against real threats | RANT with John Cadogan

The United Nations

The Top 10 Worst UN Actions of 2020
Despots take heart. The UN is NOT doing what it was originally set up to do. The rest of us can read this and weep.

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Aboriginal Art

• App that enhances art site pics
  Now there is a good way to make the paintings stand out without having to touch them in any way.
• Injalak
  Injalak is an art centre just over the border in Arnhem Land. To watch videos of artist profiles, weaving demonstrations, music and stories visit the link above.
  To find out how to visit, see their main website, Injalak - Visiting Us
• People often ask how old the art is. One of our clients took his curiosity to an extreme and has done major work on dating rock art sites.
  Dating Gwion art sites
  When the author sent me the link, he sent me the wonderful comment below.
  "You must take some credit for this work! If you hadn't been brave enough to take Krys and me out, as less-experienced bushwalkers in 2010, then 2011, then 2012 etc., I would never have started down this path. I am most certain you have had a significant and positive impact on very many people's lives; this is just one point of tangible evidence!"
• In Cave in Borneo Jungle, Scientists Find Oldest Figurative Painting in the World *
  A cave drawing in Borneo is at least 40,000 years old, raising intriguing questions about creativity in ancient societies.

First Footprints the untold story of how Aboriginal people came to Australia over 50,000 years ago and adapted and thrived in this harsh continent is again available on SBS On Demand.

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Globalisation

I'd pretty much finished this newsletter when I realised I hadn't included the articles about globalisation. Increasing globalisation has been the story of most of this century. Now it's getting wound back. That will affect us all.

• Global Chip Shortage Challenges Biden's Hope for Manufacturing Revival *
  A global shortage of a key component for cars and electronics has shuttered American factories and set off fierce competition to secure supplies.
• The Stuck Container Ship on the Suez Canal Was a Metaphor *
  Long-distance supply chains hide costly risks and those risks may help usher in a new stage of global commerce.
• Ship Is Freed After a Costly Lesson in the Vulnerabilities of Sea Trade *
  A single stuck ship stymied global trade for nearly a week. That raises fundamental questions about risks in the supply chain industry.
• In Suez Canal, Stuck Ship Is a Warning About Excessive Globalization *
  The shutdown of the vital waterway and its impact on trade underscore the world's reliance on global supply chains.
  An excessive reliance on just-in-time manufacturing helps explain how medical staff from Indiana to Italy found themselves attending to Covid-19 patients during the first wave of the pandemic without adequate protective gear like masks and gowns.
  Health care systems ― many under the control of profit-making companies answerable to shareholders assumed that they could depend on the web and the global shipping industry to deliver what they needed in real time. That proved a deadly miscalculation.
  "As we become more interdependent, we are even more subject to the fragilities that arise, and they are always unpredictable," said Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization at Oxford University. "No one could predict a ship going aground in the middle of the canal, just like no one predicted where the pandemic would come from. Just like we can't predict the next cyberattack, or the next financial crisis, but we know it's going to happen."

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