Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 117, February 2022 ― Return to Normal ― What's Normal?
Once again, this newsletter is far too long but I keep finding more things that I'd like to share. As with the last one, this one needs a gentle browse over the coming weeks. My personal top picks are
If you are viewing this on a mobile, the newsletter and many of the links should work better in a horizontal format.
Restricted content. Articles marked * or ** are on restricted websites Click for more info including how to avoid the paywalls.
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WW 2022
Definite Departures
Time to repeat what we mean when we say a departure is "definite", "definite" means that we have the bookings we need to run a trip. Circumstances beyond out control can still force a cancellation. Those circumstances include.
- Multiple cancellations more than two months prior to departure could render the trip unviable. Less than two months out, we'll keep the cancellation fees and still run the trip, even if it loses money.
- A state border is closed or fails to open as scheduled. Covid has done this to us on multiple occasions over the past two years. If that happens, those booked get a 100% refund.
- The guide suddenly becomes unavailable and we can't find a replacement. This hasn't ever happened to us, but the current covid situation means that it is certainly possible.
Given the above, the following departures are as definite as we can make them.
- New trip. Top End Light: 18-25 March
I created a trip for a couple with a two year old. It's things I'd like to do myself so I've advertised it at a special price of $995. No other discounts apply.
- Centralian Highlights: 13 April - 3 May
It's green! There was widespread rain throughout the region in November with more in January and this month. This will be the best year for a visit in a long time.
I loved the trip I did last year. One of the clients on last year's trip liked it so much he's coming back for this one.
Five places still available.
- Kakadu Super Circle No. 2: 5-26 June
Only one place left on section two. Section 1 is full.
We may have to modify section two, full details on pages 5 & 6 in the PDF trip notes
- Kakadu Highlights No. 5: 19 June - 2 July
Two sections, either of which can be done on its own.
- Drysdale River No. 1: 19 June - 3 July
Because of a cancellation, we now have one place available. Because of the heavy bookings before we worked out the new price, we've left the 2021 price. It will cost an extra $1000 next year.
- Drysdale River No. 2: 3-17 July
Because of a change to the float plane landing site, we may decide to carry the food for the full two weeks as having a food drop would add a substantial return walk.
The trip was fully booked but some of the group switched to an easier trip because of the change.
- Mitchell Plateau No. 2: 24 July - 7 August
The trip is full but we are taking a waitlist.
Other Trips With Bookings
Covid and WW
Proof of Vaccination. The NT requires proof that you've been at least double vaccinated before you will be allowed to enter. WA will do the same when it finally re-opens. We've had to change our registration forms to ask for this information.
When the WA government changed its mind about opening the border on 5 February, we had no choice but to cancel our Bungles in the Wet trip. Given the lead in time we need to run out trips, we then cancelled every WA trip leaving before mid May.
As things change, we post updates on the Home Page on our website.
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Your Health ― Mixed News
Food
Tobacco
- New Zealand Plans to Eventually Ban All Cigarette Sales *
The proposal, expected to become law next year, would raise the smoking age year by year until it covers the entire population.
It's more sensible than an outright ban. The high prices for tobacco in Australia have caused some Aboriginal people to turn back to traditional bush tobacco. It's an addiction and should be treated as such. But, of course, the government gets so much money from tobacco taxes that they don't want to kill it completely.
- Illicit tobacco trade in Queensland 'exploding' with authorities powerless to stop it, industry groups say
"The illicit tobacco trade in Queensland is "exploding" with industry groups and police saying there are no state laws to stop it or the organised crime running it."
"In the past year, one tobacco shop has opened every week in south-east Queensland with around 70 stores now selling illicit tobacco in plain sight near legitimate retailers."
Misc
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$400 Reward
I have spent hundreds of hours working on our website. The constant updates have meant that some things have gone wrong. I didn't know just how wrong until one of my guides mentioned some broken links. When I couldn't find them, I asked for more detail and discovered that some things I hadn't realised were links really were ― and were wrong. I fixed those but have no idea how many more there may be.
It got worse. Someone found broken links in our registration form.
Worse, it seems to be more than just broken links. Theoretically the website should automatically adjust so it works on desktops, tablets and mobiles. As far as I can tell, it works best on desktops and laptops, reasonably well on mobiles (probably better in a horizontal format than a vertical one) and badly on some tablets. In order to be sure what's going on, I need to be able to see what you actually see, especially if you're using a tablet. If you see something strange when you look at the home page, please please send me an email and attach a screen shot of what you saw. If we don't know what's wrong, we can't fix it.
I'm offering a reward credit of $400 to the person who is the most helpful at finding broken links and/or finding weird screen views of part of the website in the month after this newsletter comes out. To make it a real $400, it comes off the cost after all other deductions have been made. If the person who wins them doesn't want to do a trip, they can transfer it so someone else. The trip must be booked to finish before 31 December 2023.
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Corruption
Corruption and Politics
Wasting Your Money
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Bureaucratic morass in housing markets must end
"About half the cost of a home and land package comprises state and local government charges....that means that about half of new home bank lending in Australia is required to pay for local and state government bureaucracies and their taxes. In the process, a vast number of Australians are being priced out of the housing market and we are creating a terrible divide in our community.
If you can't see the article because of a paywall, click here
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Nauru offshore regime to cost Australian taxpayers nearly $220m over next six months
Brisbane firm Canstruct International awarded eighth contract extension to provide 'garrison and welfare services 'on the island
"It currently costs Australian taxpayers more than $4m a year to hold one person within the Nauru offshore regime ― a little over $11,000 per person per day."
$11,000 per person per day. Think of all the other, useful, things the government could be doing with that money.
- The COVIDSafe app was designed to help contact tracers. We crunched the numbers to see what really happened
"During the six months of our study, there were only 17 true close contacts identified by COVIDSafe who would have otherwise been missed ― a tiny fraction of the more than 25,300 close contacts detected and followed up through conventional contact tracing in NSW during the same period.
None of these 17 contacts became positive. So COVIDSafe did not contribute to preventing any new exposures in NSW during our evaluation period."
Read the article for all the details. It looks like it was a waste of money and time, created in haste so that the government could look like it was doing something useful
- Years of Delays, Billions in Overruns: The Dismal History of Big Infrastructure *
The nation's most ambitious engineering projects are mired in postponements and skyrocketing costs. Delivering $1.2 trillion in new infrastructure will be tough.
While this story is from America, the principle is the same in Australia. Big projects suffer huge cost overruns with no one being held accountable.
Government Overreach
Money is more important than people
- How Casinos Enable Gambling Addicts
Modern slot machines develop an unbreakable hold on many players ― some of whom wind up losing their jobs, their families, and even, as in the case of Scott Stevens, their lives.
"The manufacturers know these machines are addictive and do their best to make them addictive so they can make more money," says Terry Noffsinger, the lead attorney on the Stevens suit. "This isn't negligence. It's intentional."
"At least nine independent studies demonstrate that problem gamblers generate anywhere from 30 to 60 percent of total gambling revenues."
"The business plan for casinos is not based on the occasional gambler. The business plan for casinos is based on the addicted gambler."
We call them pokies in Australia. We're not quite as bad, "the patent application for virtual reel mapping, the technology that made all these deceptive practices possible, was straightforward about its intended use: "It is important," the application stated, "to make a machine that is perceived to present greater chances of payoff than it actually has within the legal limitations that games of chance must operate." Countries such as Australia and New Zealand have outlawed virtual reel mapping because of the harm the inherent deception inflicts upon players."
Governments collect taxes. Media outlets collect ad revenue. That's more important than the lives I've seen which get destroyed.
- Rugby player Dennis Tutty went to the High Court and changed Australian sport ― but there's still a tough issue left to tackle
We may not think of professional athletes as being just like other workers, but should that mean the fundamental right to a presumption of innocence is trumped by the primacy of the commercial rights of a governing body?
- Pandora Papers show mystery foreign investors making it harder for Australians to buy property
"You need to provide more proof of identity to get a library card or pick up a parcel from the post office than what you need to register a company in Australia."
I can't help but wonder, is this simple government incompetence or someone getting paid off ― or both?
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Understanding China
Like it or not, what happens in China affects almost everyone everywhere in the world. Ignore it at your peril.
China and Covid
Because the world depends on China for the supply of so many things, China's covid containment strategy will inevitably affect much of the rest of the world.
Misc
- Beijing's Dilemmas
From Mauldin Economics, this is the best brief summary of the situation in China, as it's seen in China, that I've seen.
- Dan Wang 2021 Letter
I found this link in the Mauldin article above. Far more detail here. A few excerpts.
- Chinese schools teach math the way that American schools teach sports: with the expectation that every child is capable. As a former maths teacher, this one really hit home. I remember an amazing experiment from back in the late 1950s or early 1960s where they took some competent mathematicians who were also teachers and put them into a primary school class to teach the kids maths they wouldn't normally have encountered for another 3-4 years. No problems learning. But getting competent maths teachers into a majority of primary school classrooms where they are needed most costs too much to consider.
- China's semiconductor industry remains weak, but broader science efforts haven't done too poorly. China's space program, for example, might be years or decades behind NASA, but it has shown the capability to learn from past missions and take on increasingly difficult tasks. A steady capacity to execute on bigger and bigger projects also describes China' energy infrastructure buildout. These produce the sort of national confidence to do hard things that the US had in the '50s and '60s.
- The Chinese state has long placed greater value on resilience over efficiency, which has dragged down its performance on metrics that economists care about, like return on equity. In my view, that is as often an indictment of the economic profession. The US focus on efficiency has revealed the brittleness of its economy, which has neither the manufacturing capability to scale up domestic production of goods nor the logistics capacity to handle greater imports. Decades of American deindustrialization as well as an aversion against idle capacity has eroded domestic manufacturing.
- Since the US government is incapable of structural reform, companies now employ algorithm geniuses to help people navigate the healthcare system. This sort of seventh-best solution is typical of a vetocracy. I don’t see that the US government is trying hard to reform institutions; its response is usually to make things more complex (like its healthcare legislation) or throw money at the problem.
- 'Unsilenced' tells a tale of Chinese repression
A movie worth watching. I wonder if it will be shown in Australia
- A Digital Manhunt: How Chinese Police Track Critics on Twitter and Facebook *
Authorities in China have turned to sophisticated investigative software to track and silence obscure critics on overseas social media. Their targets include college students and non-Chinese nationals.
- Why Peng Shuai Has China's Leaders Spooked *
This article is from some time ago. China seems to have done pretty well in silencing her. Even though they had to back down, the Australian tennis ban on 'Where is Peng Shuai?' shirts shows how much power they wield.
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China's sixth plenum will consolidate Xi Jinping's power and chart the country's ambitions for the next 5 years
- To Steer China's Future, Xi Is Rewriting Its Past *
A new official summation of Communist Party history is likely to exalt Xi Jinping as a peer of Mao and Deng, fortifying his claim to a new phase in power.
- Private Equity Beware: Botox Could Be China's Next Target **
Young women account for 80% of China's medical aesthetics market. It may not be long before a People's Daily editorial calls botox a 'mental toxin.'
- Little red children and ‘Grandpa Xi': China's school textbooks reflect the rise of Xi Jinping's personality cult
- How the U.S. Lost Ground to China in the Contest for Clean Energy *
Americans failed to safeguard decades of diplomatic and financial investments in Congo, where the world's largest supply of cobalt is controlled by Chinese companies backed by Beijing.
China takes a long term view. The US and most other western countries seem unable to do this.
- China's Births Hit Historic Low, a Political Problem for Beijing *
The demographic crisis, a challenge to the economy, also signals a limit to the reach of the government, which has struggled recently to grow the population.
On the other hand, the world's population cannot grow forever. Maybe all countries should start looking at what kind of society we'll have when the growth stops or reverses. The sooner the reverse, the better the average lifestyle will be.
- She Is Breaking Glass Ceilings in Space, but Facing Sexism on Earth *
Sanitary pads and makeup: A Chinese astronaut's six-month stay aboard the country's space station has revealed conflicted cultural values toward gender.
- China's Economy Is Slowing, a Worrying Sign for the World *
Economic output climbed 4 percent in the last quarter of 2021, slowing from the previous quarter. Growth has faltered as home buyers and consumers become cautious.
- Xi Jinping puts his stamp on Communist Party history, but is his support as strong as his predecessors?
Xi's current position in the party is different to that of former leaders Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping when they initiated the previous resolutions on party history in 1945 and 1981, respectively. Both Mao and Deng had well-established political authority that was in many ways independent of their formal positions in the CCP.
Taiwan
At present, a huge percentage of the world's computer chips come from Taiwan. What happens there affects us all.
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Understanding America
American Politics
- Why the US Is a Failed Democratic State
The self-governing republic works only if it expresses the will of the majority. But one party is now committed to minoritarian rule by any means.
- Can You Gerrymander Your Party to Power? *
Gerrymandering is the intentional distortion of political districts to give one party an advantage, and it has been criticized for disenfranchising many voters and fuelling deeper polarization.
To help you understand it better, we created an imaginary state called Hexapolis, where your only mission is to gerrymander your party to power.
I found it a fun way to stand something of political importance. Not as bad in Australia but we have some.
- Democrats Decried Dark Money. Then They Won With It in 2020. *
A New York Times analysis reveals how the left outdid the right at raising and spending millions from undisclosed donors to defeat Donald Trump and win power in Washington.
"Some good-government activists worry that the exploding role of undisclosed cash threatens to accelerate the erosion of trust in the country’s political system."
"The scale of secret spending is such that, even as small donors have become a potent force in politics, undisclosed money dwarfed the 2020 campaign fund-raising of President Biden (who raised a record $1 billion) and Mr. Trump (who raised more than $810 million)."
- David Shor Is Telling Democrats What They Don't Want to Hear *
Long article, political analysis from US, helps make sense of what's going on and what's likely in the relatively near term
- Is the US really heading for a second civil war?
- Opinion: 3 retired generals: The military must prepare now for a 2024 insurrection **
Misc
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The World in 2022
I thought these two were so important that they deserved a section on their own.
- Top Risks for 2022
Short, sharp and to the point. Very much centred on the USA ― but what happens in the USA affects the entire world.
- The World in 2022
This "document is intended to be a forecast not of great powers but of the things that will shape the world in 2022. The economic fallout of the pandemic is just one of them. Others include the United States, the EU, Russia and China. No other powers have the combination of global weight, economic heft and military might to bend the world to their interests, and so to varying degrees they influence competition in and among all nations throughout the world."
It's a much longer document than the first one and goes into much more detail. If you want to try and understand the world, well worth the read.
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The Environment
Bushfires
Happier News
Climate Change
I'll start with something personal. 3,000 Miles From Glasgow, a Town and Its Polar Bears Face the Future *
I visited Churchill twice in 1969 & 1971 before polar bear tourism got big. The town is smaller now than it was way back then.
- Did We Miss Biden's Most Important Remark About Russia? *
Biden told President Vladimir Putin that Russia has something much more important to worry about than whether Ukraine looks East or West ― namely, "a burning tundra that will not freeze again naturally."
"Russia's territory is warming 2.5 times faster than the planet on average, and the situation there is going to get only worse. On June 20, 2020, the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk, about 70 miles north of the Arctic Circle, hit 100.4 degrees (38C) ― the highest temperature ever recorded north of the Arctic Circle."
- What drove Perth's record-smashing heatwave ― and why it's a taste of things to come
I wonder how long places like Perth will remain habitable
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Climate crisis: last seven years the hottest on record, 2021 data shows
Global heating continued unabated with extreme weather rife and greenhouse gases hitting new high. "The Copernicus data shows 21 of the 22 hottest years have come since the year 2000."
- The three-minute story of 800,000 years of climate change with a sting in the tail
Nice little video included
- A Slow-Motion Climate Disaster: The Spread of Barren Land *
Brazil's northeast, long a victim of droughts, is now effectively turning into a desert. The cause? Climate change and the landowners who are most affected.
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Russia allows methane leaks at planet's peril **
- The Arctic could get more rain and less snow sooner than projected. Here's why that matters. **
"What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic," one researcher said of the potential consequences.
- The seas are coming for us in Kiribati. Will Australia rehome us?
Interesting question. Proportional to population, Australia is one of the highest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world.
Ferals
Natives
Yellowstone's migrating bison manipulate springtime green-up
Interesting how hoofed animals can be beneficial to the environment where they belong while so destructive in Australia where they are not native.
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Covid
Covid has changed our society forever. The 'new normal' won't be the same as the old one. I've regularly updated my covid blog since it first began in March 2020. If you haven't visited it recently, it's worth having a look. Browse down through the past few posts and click on any links that interest you. You'll find some things that never made it into the mainstream press.
Covid and Travel
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Why COVID-19 means the era of ever cheaper air travel could be over
"By 2019 the average pre-COVID profit margin per passenger on a long-haul international return flight was about US$10. It's difficult to see how running on razor-thin margins can continue to be the industry model."
I think we'll see some nice cheap airfares as things re-open but I think the average cost will begin to rise shortly after that.
Covid and Society
- Covid's New Divide: Risk Takers vs. the Risk Averse *
In Italy, with its high vaccination rate, the social schism revolves less around who’s gotten a shot, and more around lifestyles and comfort levels of living with the coronavirus.
The story is from Italy but it is just as valid in Australia, the US and most other developed countries.
- Moderna and U.S. at Odds Over Vaccine Patent Rights *
Moderna's patent application names several employees as the sole inventors of a crucial component of its coronavirus vaccine, excluding three government scientists.
Interesting implications for further down the track.
- The staggering number of infections among the vaccinated is changing Americans' pandemic mindset.
- 1+1=4? Latin America Confronts a Pandemic Education Crisis. *
With economies reeling and millions cut off from the classroom, Latin America's students are leaving school in alarming numbers, experts say.
It's not just Latin America. Education, especially education for the less well off, has suffered in most countries.
It's not just education, Here's a quote from the Latin America section in The World in 2022 mentioned earlier in this newsletter.
Latin America "accounts for just over 8 percent of the global population, but as of the end of 2021, it accounted for approximately 18 percent of confirmed cases worldwide and 30 percent of deaths. Poor health infrastructure, insufficient vaccine availability and the inability of much of the labor force to work online conspired to wreck the region. A third of registered jobs lost globally were from Latin America, and the regional average loss of income was double the global average. Inflation in the region’s five largest economies is also outpacing the average inflation rate of emerging economies. Unsurprisingly, poverty is at a 12-year high, and extreme poverty at a 20-year high. Economic and development gains from the past decade have been wiped out in the past two years."
We've been offering trips to South America since 1990. I can't help but wonder how they will be affected.
- Where Did the Coronavirus Come From? What We Already Know Is Troubling. *
Even if the coronavirus did not emerge from a lab, the groundwork for a potential disaster had been laid for years, and learning its lessons is essential to preventing others.
Misc
From the Blog
I thought these three articles deserved a wider audience than just those who look at the blog.
- There Will Be Another Variant. Here's What the World Can Do Now. *
- The Republic of COVID-19
"In some ways, the medical establishment became the government of the United States and other countries. The doctors of this community are not stupid or corrupt. They have done extraordinary work. However, their work cannot bring the disease under sufficient long-term control, so it cannot bring the economic and social consequences under control. It is not their jobs to take into account these costs; it’s their job to submit medical solutions regardless of social and economic cost. But this is why they cannot be permitted to pose solutions that are adopted by the state. The cure may carry a massive price if it leads to shortages of staple goods."
- Vaccine Mandates: What The F**K Is Going On In Australia??!
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WW 2022 ― Special Mentions
Some of these were mentioned in the first section. Some not. All Assuming borders are open and we don't get too many cancellations, the following are already definite departures.
- Centralian Highlights: 13 April - 3 May
The Green Centre. Central Australia has had more rain in the past few months than in the previous few years. It's likely to be a long time before we get another year like this.
- Gulf to Gregory: 22 May - 18 June
• Limmen National Park ― I was amazed at how healthy the land looked in comparison to most of the places we walk.
• Judbarra/Gregory ― our first exploration of some of the southern part of the park
I'm so keen to do it, that I'll run it for as few as four people.
- Karijini National Park: 5-18 June
Karijini rain is very irregular. Good rain in early February means that there should be more water than average in June.
- Kakadu Day Walk Special: Early August
The link takes you to the notes for a special charter trip that had to be cancelled due to border closures. It will be at about the same time and about the same itinerary. Some of those who couldn't come last year have already said they want to come in 2022. If you think you'd be interested, please get your name on the list as soon as possible.
- Kakadu Short Overnight Walks For people who want to see wonderful places you can't get to by vehicle without carrying more than two night's food.
• Kakadu Short Overnight 1: 21-27 August
• Kakadu Short Overnight 2: 28 August - 3 September
The two short overnight trips are very different from our other trips and are designed so they can be combined to give you the ultimate Kakadu experience possible without going on a major expedition. The combination includes a Yellow Waters cruise and tour with an Aboriginal guide which is not included in either on its own. List price: $3995
I have NOT finished updating the trip pages and trip notes. I may combine them into two sections of a single trip. I should be able to include most of the best Aboriginal cultural experiences Kakadu has to offer. The old web pages, links below, are two years out of date, but they will give you an idea of what the trips will be like.
• Kakadu Short Overnight 1: 21-27 August
• Kakadu Short Overnight 2: 28 August - 3 September
- Kakadu Birdwatching and Nature Special: 2-15 October
This trip includes a five night bushwalk. We have had a request to split the group and so something easier for those who aren't able to do the long walk. If you might be interested in this option, please let us know ASAP or it won't happen.
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The Lighter Side
A miscellaneous collection of things I enjoyed.
- An amazing record.
- Growing Up In Kakadu
This story from one of the local traditional owners should help you understand what it's like.
- 1 millipede, 1,306 legs: we just discovered the world’s leggiest animal hiding in Western Australia
- Five ice-age mammoths unearthed in Cotswolds after 220,000 years
- Birds Aren't Real ― just for fun, worth a look.
- Notable Deaths 2021 *
Includes one I found particularly interesting,
- Ruthie Tompson *
Worked for Disney, includes a link to a WWII Disney cartoon, Der Fuehrer's Face. The film won the 1943 Academy Award for Best Animated Short Film and was the only Donald Duck cartoon to win an Oscar. In 1994, it was voted #22 of "the 50 Greatest Cartoons" of all time by members of the animation field.
It's interesting to see the kind of propaganda we put out back then. Watching Donald Duck vs the Nazis reminded me of some WWII Popeye cartoons I saw on TV in a restaurant where I was having breakfast in Peru in the late 1990s. The first one made no sense to me until I saw the second one about the Japanese.
Here's a link to - Popeye Anti-Japanese Cartoons which contains info about the time and links to some of the cartoons.
The originals were in black & white. Some were turned into colour in the 1980s as was the case with the ones I saw in Peru.
- This one was playing when we entered the restaurant. I hadn't seen the title and couldn't make sense of it until I saw the next one and realised it was WWII propaganda.
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News About This Newsletter
Restricted websites. Theoretically, the NY Times allows non-subscribers to look at ten free articles each month. I've got more links than that in this newsletter so I've marked them with a red asterisk (*) so that you can choose which are of most interest to you. If you want to read more than ten or if you get blocked with fewer, There is a way to get around this. You can find out how to do so at How to continue reading the new york times online for free. I hope that helps.
Bloomberg allows three free articles. The Washington Post and The Economist both have limits but I'm not sure what the current limits are so I've marked their articles with a double red asterisk (**).
Coming Next Issue
• Not so clean, clean energy
• Your Money ― includes something that MIGHT save you tens of thousands of dollars
• Updates on our trips and more, much more
• When? Probably March, but it could be later if I run out of time.
As always, I welcome a bit of feedback about some of the things in this newsletter and suggestions for the next one.
Sending the newsletter
I'm now using a paid version of MailChimp to send all of the newsletters. I'm not sure what I'll do if the list goes over 2500.
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If you know someone you think would enjoy this newsletter,
please forward it to them. The more people who get it, the more likely it is that I'll be able to run the trips which might interest you.
I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed writing it.
Best wishes.
Russell Willis
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