Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 120, January 2023 ― Where WW and the World Are Going

WW 2023 ― Last Chance

Nothing is available before March. March and April trips will be confirmed or cancelled by the end of the first week in February.

• Special offers on all but the first.
• March.Two trips remain available.
  • Sébastien's Drysdale River Pack Rafting: 26 March - 8 April
    This is already a definite departure. As far as we know, no one else offers a trip like this.
  • Even with a $1000 discount in addition to the advance advance purchase discount, I didn't get a single taker for Kakadu Highlights No. 2: 12-26 March. I gave up, cancelled it and replaced it with a shorter, somewhat harder trip.
    Our best offer ever. Kakadu Highlights No. 2A: 12-19 March, 8 days for the ridiculous price of $400, or only $250 if you provide your own transport. If it runs, it will be the first time in ten years or more that we've been able to do the Guluyambi wet season cruise, do the lower Motorcar Creek walk or the Barramundi Creek wet season walk.
    I am so keen to do it myself and get some new photos and videos that I'm will run it for as few as three people for no extra charge.
• April. Four trips remain available; two run into May.
  • Karijini National Park: 2-15 April
    Definite departure. It's a very small group so we're leaving the 15% advance purchase discount open until two weeks after this newsletter comes out.
    Guides: John & Mardi Barnes
  • Bungle Bungles & Osmond Range: 9-29 April
    Two sections, either of which can be done on its own. We currently have two bookings on section two (Bungles) and one on the full trip. We need five bookings to run the full trip. We can run section two on its own if we don't get the bookings to run section one. Probable guide: Paul Blattman.
    We want to run it so we're leaving the 15% advance purchase discount open until two weeks after this newsletter comes out.
  • Centralian Highlights: 12 April - 2 May
    Hard to believe. In spite of good and widespread rain which makes this is an exceptionally good year to go, we've had no interest in this trip.
    We'd like to see it run so we'll leave the 20% advance purchase discount open until two weeks after this newsletter comes out.
  • Gulf to Gregory: 30 April - 27 May
    Definite departure. Guide: Russell Willis
    We'd like to bring a second vehicle so we're leaving the 20% advance purchase discount open until two weeks after this newsletter comes out. This offer does not apply unless we get at least two more bookings.

  New Caledonia: 6-24 August
  This trip is a definite departure, still plenty of space available, BUT it is in the peak tourist season. Reasonably priced airfares and accommodation will soon disappear. Get in now of take a chance on paying much more later.
  Guide: Sébastien Heritier

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Crime in our Society

Crime, particularly juvenile crime, has been an increasing problem in the NT for many years. I suspect that it's the same in the rest of Australia and probably in much of the western world. Don't blame the kids. We, as a society, have CHOSEN to create the problem. The following article from the NY Times, is highly recommended. If you only look at a few articles, you should be able to see it without a paywall. If not, send me an email and I'll get you a copy.

What These 11 Cops Think People Don't Understand About Crime *

• The real issue is the lack of respect and parenting and these insane ideologies and teachings that we're bringing into these schools. If you don't change it, you'll never change crime.
• People see on TV that you can go into a Walgreens and just take what you want. There's no consequence to any of your actions, and that speaks volumes.
• Criminals know what they can get away with, and some of them know the law better than we do. You take that, and you mix it with a district attorney who does things certain ways, and it's a recipe for what we have.
• You don't take ownership of anything, because you didn't work for it. You don't care about it. The root cause of a lot of crime is a lack of respect for authority.
• While kids are in school, teach them about what happens after school. How is it that you're supposed to dress when you go to work? How do you speak? How do you conduct yourself? I think that if there were some of these opportunities, perhaps people would gain the knowledge that they don't gain at home. I wish they were taught so much more about life, about relationships. Maybe even as they get older, about parenting and what exactly that's going to take. It's so easy for you to say "I do" and get married. Wait till you see what comes if you have to get a divorce later on. But as far as policies, I just think so much comes from home, really. And I just don't know what policies force people to learn that there are other ways in life.
• Until we take our own accountability for our actions, for our child's actions and be held accountable for them, that's the only way we will possibly be able to somewhat reduce crime.

There is a lot more in the article. Well worth the read.

Juvenile Crime

• More states consider laws to punish parents if children fire unsecured guns **
  Australia has a lot of juvenile crime. What should we hold parents responsible for? Nothing shouldn't be an option.
• Father of Highland Park shooting suspect charged with reckless conduct **
• After Michigan shooting suspect's parents are arrested, town grapples with an awful new reality: 'Everyone's on edge' **
• Many parents of school shooters ignore glaring warning signs. This grandmother didn't. **
  When Catherine O'Connor discovered her grandson was planning an attack, she did what few parents or guardians do: reported a child she loved to police.
  Her grandson is now in gaol but he is alive. If he'd carried out his planned attack, he'd be dead along with lots of others.
• A 6-year-old is accused of shooting someone at school. He isn't the first. **
  The boy who allegedly shot a teacher in Newport News, Va., is not the only young child to wreak havoc at an elementary school with a loaded gun
• School downplayed warnings about 6-year-old before teacher's shooting, staffers say **
  "The Virginia teacher who was shot by a 6-year-old student repeatedly asked administrators for help with the boy but officials downplayed educators' warnings about his behavior, including dismissing his threat to light a teacher on fire and watch her die, according to messages from teachers obtained by The Washington Post."
  I wonder if anything even remotely positive can come of this.
• Va. school ignored warnings boy had gun before he shot teacher, attorney says **
  Allegation came on same day Newport News School Board voted to relieve superintendent of his duties

To Show or Not to Show

News organizations grapple with showing horrific Nichols, Pelosi videos **
Television networks chose to air footage of the beating of Tyre Nichols by police and of a hammer attack on Paul Pelosi, but with copious warnings.
Sometimes it helps put an end to rumours that say something really wasn't as bad as it was.

Final Thought

Police gun violence is glorified on screen. But more armed and aggressive policing doesn't actually make us safer.

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WW 2023 Trips ― Special Mention

We've already made some major changes to the program. There will be others. If you are interested in a particular trip, the sooner you get in, the more likely it is that we can run it for you.

Australia

• Cassie's Kimberley NVC trip: 4-13 May still needs another booking or two before we can guarantee departure. It's very different to our other trips. Those who have done similar trips in the past have all thought they were excellent. Click the link and see what you think.
• Kakadu Super Circle No. 2: 15 June - 9 July
  Because of a route closure, we've had to change the route and extend it so that it still includes almost all of the highlights that were on the original schedule. It already has the bookings we need to be a definite departure.
• Drysdale River
  • Drysdale 1: 18 June - 2 July already has the bookings we need to be a definite departure.
  • Drysdale 2: 2-16 July has bookings but not enough for us to guarantee departure. If we get If we get enough bookings to run Drysdale 2, it will save us on transport so we'll pass that saving along and drop the new list price of $6795 by $500 for everyone on all Drysdale trips.
  • Drysdale 3: 16-30 July also has bookings but is unlikely to run unless Drysdale 2 does.
• Mitchell Plateau No. 2: 23 July - 6 August
  Our new permit has finally come through.
• Our easiest dry season trips, both of which have strong Aboriginal cultural components.
  • Kakadu Short Overnight Walks: 5-12 September
    Two, two-night walks with minimal pack carrying combined with a number of day trips.
  • Kakadu Day Walks: 8-12 September
    Our only fully accommodated trip. Needs only two more to be a definite departure.
  • My personal preference would be the longer one. If you might be interested, please make sure you read the PDF trip notes as well as the web page. The two trips are very different to most of what we offer.
• Watch our Availability and Specials page for further offers as they happen.

Overseas

At this point, it looks as if we'll only be able to offer two trips this year.

• New Caledonia: 6-24 August
  As mentioned in the first section, this trip is a definite departure, still plenty of space available, BUT it is in the peak tourist season. Reasonably priced airfares and accommodation will soon disappear. Get in now of take a chance on paying much more later.
  Guide: Sébastien Heritier
• Namibia: September-October, about 4 weeks.
  I finished a major update to the trip notes on 29 January. We can now take bookings.

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The Amazon ― Too Late?

This newsletter is already too long so I'll leave most of the environmental stories for the next issue.

• The Tipping Point. If the Amazon does reach a tipping point, there will be dramatic changes to the weather worldwide.
  • From the NY Times, Has the Amazon Reached Its 'Tipping Point'? *
    Some Brazilian scientists fear that the Amazon may become a grassy savanna ― with profound effects on the climate worldwide.
    "In a healthy rainforest, the concentration of carbon should decline as you approach the canopy from above, because trees are drawing the element out of the atmosphere and turning it into wood through photosynthesis. In 2010, when Gatti started running two flights a month at each of four different spots in the Brazilian Amazon, she expected to confirm this. But her samples showed the opposite: At lower altitudes, the ratio of carbon increased. This suggested that emissions from the slashing and burning of trees ― the preferred method for clearing fields in the Amazon ― were actually exceeding the forest's capacity to absorb carbon. At first Gatti was sure it was an anomaly caused by a passing drought. But the trend not only persisted into wetter years; it intensified."
    The world may have passed a tipping point. Even if not, we show no signs of making the short term sacrifices needed to avoid it.
  • From Scientific American, Amazon Rain Forest Nears Dangerous 'Tipping Point'
    It is losing its ability to recover from disturbances such as drought, wildfire and human development, researchers say
  • From the BBC, Amazon rainforest reaching tipping point, researchers say
• The Amazon, undone **
  As the Amazon rainforest goes dry, a desperate wait for water
• Ending Amazon deforestation: 4 essential reads about the future of the world's largest rainforest

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Your Health

The Most Important Link In This Newsletter

This short video is the most important link in this newsletter. It's less than 1½ minutes. It might save your life. It might save the lives of people you love. Watch it through to the end or the message is lost.

Staff Shortages

In the 'Your Health' section of the last newsletter, I had a number of stories about major problems with a system that rewards 'speed not need'. Unless something changes, we are heading for a crisis.

• Nurses Are Burned Out and Fed Up. For Good Reason. *
  One striking nurse I interviewed last week told me that he routinely had to juggle 15 to 20 patients, significantly more than the recommended number.
  This story is from the USA. We're not all that much better.
• Should I stay, or should I go? Australia's nurse retention dilemma
  One-fifth of Australia's registered nurses say they intend to leave their current role in the next year.
• Last November, Western Australian nurses and midwives strike after rejecting pay and conditions offer
  Something similar had happened in NSW early in the year. If we don't treat staff right, why should they stay?
• Drastic medical overhaul needed amid dire GP shortage, warns peak body
  "General practice will cease to exist unless there's a drastic overhaul of frontline medical services, the new head of Australia's peak body for GPs warns." "As soon as you move past the eastern seaboard, there are practices just closing left right and centre, and that's devastating for communities," she said.
  At the other end of the spectrum, Higgins says she's concerned that most politicians seem to have "very low levels of literacy around health systems and general practice".
• Fears national doctor shortage will soon force metropolitan GP clinics to turn away patients
• Do a search and there are many similar stories. A system that emphasised prevention over treatment would go a long way to overcoming the problem.
  Preventive Medicine: Prevention vs. Treatment
  "Practicing preventive medicine can also save you money. That's because we spend about 75 percent of our annual health costs on chronic and largely preventable diseases."
• The Wikipedia article on Preventative Healthcare has a wealth of info for those who'd like to learn more.

Drugs

• It's Not Just About Pot. Our Entire Drug Policy Needs an Overhaul. *
  No logic at all. Australia is, I think, better but still a long way from being rational about the issue.
• Victorian Greens push for cannabis to be legalised, taxed similarly to alcohol
  Plan would see a 30% tax imposed, which analysis suggests will add $1.21bn in revenue over a decade
  Makes sense. Cannabis is no more harmful than alcohol or problem gambling. Pity the government doesn't have nerve to axe gambling ads like it did with tobacco.
• Cause of death: Washington faltered as fentanyl gripped America **
  "Fentanyl is now the leading cause of death for Americans ages 18 to 49, according to a Post analysis."
• Why is fentanyl so dangerous? **
  More people have died of synthetic-opioid overdoses than the number of U.S. military personnel killed during the Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined.
• Tranq Dope: Animal Sedative Mixed With Fentanyl Brings Fresh Horror to U.S. Drug Zones *
  A veterinary tranquilizer called xylazine is infiltrating street drugs, deepening addiction, baffling law enforcement and causing wounds so severe that some result in amputation.
• Fentanyl warning following Australia's largest detection of deadly opioid
  The AFP is seeking information from anyone with knowledge of the attempted importation and is warning the public about the dangers of the drug, which can be fatal from a dose of just 2mg ― or about the same weight as two grains of salt.

Shingles

A friend of mine sent me this piece about Shingles. It's a nasty disease, mostly preventable. If you've never been vaccinated against chicken pox, reading this could save you a lot of pain. (Having had chicken pox makes you more susceptible, not less.) Excerpts.

• If you live to a good age, you have a 1 in 2 or 3 chance of developing shingles. This is where the chickenpox virus re-emerges and hits you. You get a rash, that almost always is on one side of your body only ― characteristic for diagnosis. The rash is nasty and very painful, depending on where it is located. If you are lucky, it goes away. However, it damages nerves. And if the damage is severe enough, those nerves stay damaged for a long time, even for the rest of your life. The damaged nerves send junk signals to the brain, which it interprets as pain, itch or a combination of these. Potentially severe pain. That never goes away.
• The federal government, in their infinite wisdom, recognised the increased danger to older people from the vaccination of children against chicken pox. In fact, they offered free shingles vaccines for all older people, I think of ages 50-70 for some years. But they didn't bother advertising it well, so chances are you probably haven't heard of it, like me. So very few people took up the offer. So, they changed the rules so that now you can only get the free vaccine at age 70. Not before. Not after. And still poorly advertised. And you can certainly get shingles well before 70, although the risk increases as you age.
• If drawing other people's attention to shingles results in even 1 person avoiding ongoing severe pain or worse, then I will be happy.

Food & Health

• 9 Nutrition Tips for the New Year *
  This simple and surprising advice will help you have a healthy 2023.
• The Worst Foods and Drinks for Your Teeth *
  When assessing how likely a given meal, snack or drink is to harm your dental health, there are two main things to consider, experts say.
• Mediterranean Diet Really Is That Good for You. Here's Why. *
  It has become the bedrock of virtuous eating. Experts answer common questions about how it leads to better health.
• They Rejected Diet Culture 30 Years Ago. Then They Went Mainstream. *
  Once considered radical, Elyse Resch and Evelyn Tribole's method of intuitive eating has become the cornerstone of the modern anti-diet movement.
• Is It Bad to Drink Coffee on an Empty Stomach? *
  Your gut is adaptable, experts say, but there are a few facts you should keep in mind.
  More benefit than damage in most cases.
• What Should I Eat or Drink When I Have a Cold? *
  From hot toddies to chicken soup, there are a few important things to keep in mind, experts say.
  Hydration is particularly important. Soups help with that.

Misc

• Widening Gap
  This chart shows life expectancy for the US vs. an average of all the other OECD developed countries. Both dipped in 2020 thanks to COVID, but that's not the most interesting part. Note how the gap between the two lines has been widening over time.
• Can politics kill you? Research says the answer increasingly is yes. **
  "Covid death rates were 11 percent higher in states with Republican-controlled governments and 26 percent higher in areas where voters lean conservative. Similar results emerged about hospital ICU capacity when the concentration of political power in a state was conservative."
  Political views affected vaccine take up in Australia. Our problem wasn't as big but it did, and still does, exist.
• U.S. agency examines secret pollution source in 40 million homes: Gas stoves **
  The hidden hazard of these appliances, indoor air quality exposure and asthma is finally getting attention
• How the humble gas stove became the latest flash point in the culture wars **
  Regulators have no plans to ban gas stoves, but Republicans are slamming the Consumer Product Safety Commission for announcing it will examine the health impacts of the appliances
• What do we do when air conditioning is a matter of life and death? **
  Phoenix, our hottest city, endured 53 days above 110 degrees (43.3C) and suffered more than 300 heat-related deaths in 2020. But Phoenix exists as a major American city only because the popularization of air conditioning after World War II spurred a population explosion there ― from fewer than 250,000 in 1950 to more than 4.5 million in 2022. That's millions of people living somewhere that, by design, requires them to find a way to stay cool to survive.
  The story is from America but there are places in Australia that are as bad, if not worse.

Mental Health

• What Psychologists Want Today's Young Adults to Know *
  The generation entering adulthood now faces novel, sometimes debilitating, challenges. Experts offer tools to navigate a "quarterlife crisis."
  Mental health is important. We've raised a generation to be less resilient than previous ones. We need to face the consequences.
• Hundreds of Suicidal Teens Sleep in Emergency Rooms. Every Night. *
  With inpatient psychiatric services in short supply, adolescents are spending days, even weeks, in hospital emergency departments awaiting the help they desperately need.

The Pandemic

There is a lot we've failed to learn. The next one ― and there WILL be a next one ― could be worse.

• 9 Pandemic Narratives We're Getting Wrong *
• Why Isn't the U.S. Embracing This Pandemic Prevention Strategy? *
  Vaccine hoarding cost more than a million people their lives, according to a recent study in the journal Nature Medicine.
  To avoid a repeat of this tragedy, every region of the world must be able to make its own vaccines. Right now, Africa, Latin America and parts of Southeast Asia rely primarily on imported vaccines.
  "The only way to prepare the world for a pandemic outbreak is to regionalize production and access to medical countermeasures like vaccines," said Rick Bright, a former director of the Department of Health and Human Services' Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, or BARDA.
• The End of Vaccines at 'Warp Speed' *
  Financial and bureaucratic barriers in the United States mean that the next generation of Covid vaccines may well be designed there, but used elsewhere.

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Ukraine

There is far more at stake with the war in the Ukraine than the fate of a single country. Here are a collection of stories to help you make sense of what's going on and what may yet happen.

The Beginning

• Garry Kasparov: How the free world gave Putin the green light
  Well worth reading. If the West had taken a different course, the invasion might not have happened.
• Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion **
  Very long but good to get an understanding of what was happening before the invasion began.

Inside Russia

• The Russian men fleeing mobilization, and leaving everything behind **
• Fighting-age men in Russia are still hiding in fear of being sent to war **
• An Alternate Reality: How Russia's State TV Spins the Ukraine War *
  Leaked emails detail how Russia's biggest state broadcaster, working with the nation's security services, mined right-wing American news and Chinese media to craft a narrative that Moscow was winning.
• In Moscow, a Quiet Antiwar Protest With Flowers and Plush Toys *
  Amid Russia's crackdown on resistance to the war in Ukraine, some have dared to lay bouquets and other offerings at a statue of a Ukrainian poet, protesting the recent Russian strike on civilians in Dnipro.
• "Very Dangerous People: Russia's Convict Fighters Are Heading Home*
  Tens of thousands of inmates have joined a mercenary group fighting with the Kremlin's decimated forces in Ukraine. Some of them are returning to civilian life with military training and, in many cases, battlefield traumas.
  This will affect Russian society for years, perhaps decades.

The War

• Global Economic War
  "When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, it didn't just start a ground war in Europe ― it opened up what would become a worldwide economic war involving nearly every major power.
  This is five months old but it predicted some of what happened. Many countries around the world, even some of America's allies, have seen what happened and are looking for alternatives to the US dollar for international trade.
• With scant options in Ukraine, U.S. and allies prepare for long war **
• Russia and Ukraine are fighting the first full-scale drone war **
• Battle for Kyiv: Ukrainian valor, Russian blunders combined to save the capital **
• Western Tanks Appear Headed to Ukraine, Breaking Another Taboo *
  The West has sent an array of weapons once seen as too provocative, and it looks like tanks will be next. With a new Russian offensive expected, officials see an urgent need to shift the balance.
  Since the above was written, both the USA and Germany have announced they will be sending tanks to the Ukraine.
• Inside the monumental, stop-start effort to arm Ukraine **
  The U.S. supply of weapons has never been enough for Kyiv. But for Washington and the Pentagon, there are broader concerns.
• In Bucha, a Final Rampage Served as a Coda to a Month of Atrocities *
  Hours before Russian troops began withdrawing from the suburban town, a Russian soldier left a trail of blood and devastated lives in a last paroxysm of violence.
• Caught on Camera, Traced by Phone: The Russian Military Unit that Killed dozens in Bucha *
  Times reporters spent months in Bucha, Ukraine, collecting troves of evidence to identify the Russian regiment behind one of the worst atrocities of the war so far.

Elsewhere in the World

• Inside the Face-Off Between Russia and a Small Internet Access Firm *
  The cat-and-mouse experience of Proton, a Swiss company, shows what it's like to be targeted by Russian censors ― and what it takes to fight back.
• Russian disinformation is demonizing Ukrainian refugees **
  On social media, pro-Kremlin networks are exploiting German anger over its energy crisis to undermine support for Ukraine
• Putin Wants Fealty, and He's Found It in Africa *
  As Moscow wages war in Ukraine, its mercenaries have already established control in the Central African Republic ― with scant Western reaction. Tired of Western hypocrisy and empty promises, stung by the shrug that war in Africa elicits in Western capitals as compared with war in Ukraine, many people I met were inclined to support Mr. Putin over their former colonizers in Paris. If Russian brutality in Bucha or Mariupol appals the West, Russian brutality in the Central African Republic is widely perceived to have helped quiet a decade-old conflict.

The End Game

• Time is not on Ukraine's side **
  Vladimir Putin remains fully committed to bringing all of Ukraine back under Russian control or ― failing that ― destroying it as a viable country. He believes it is his historical destiny ― his messianic mission ― to reestablish the Russian Empire and, as Zbigniew Brzezinski observed years ago, there can be no Russian Empire without Ukraine.
• Are We in the West Weaker Than Ukrainians? *
  If the war ends in a way favourable to Russia, he argues, it will be a world less safe for Americans. One lesson the world would absorb would be the paramount importance of possessing nuclear weapons, for Ukraine was invaded after it gave up its nuclear arsenal in the 1990s ― and Russia's nuclear warheads today prevent a stronger Western military response.
  "If Ukraine falls, there will certainly be a wave of nuclear proliferation," Clark warned.
  Don't think so? Would this have happened if the Ukraine hadn't given up it's nuclear arms when it became independent of the Soviet Union?

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News About This Newsletter

Restricted websites. The NY Times allows non-subscribers to look at ten free articles each month. I've got more links than that in this newsletter so I've marked them with a red asterisk (*) so that you can choose which are of most interest to you. Bloomberg allows three free articles. The Washington Post and The Economist both have limits but I'm not sure what the current limits are so I've marked their articles with a double red asterisk (**).

How to Get Past a Paywall to Read an Article for Free
Even if you regularly support journalism by paying, sometimes you need to get around it.

Next Issue I hope to include
  • more on the changing climate
  • our changing society
  • news from around the world
  • your money and general finances
  • Updates, probably major updates, on our trips and more, much more
  • When? Probably February or March. Too much happening to leave it later.

As always, I welcome a bit of feedback about some of the things in this newsletter and suggestions for the next one.

Sending the newsletter

I'm now using a paid version of MailChimp to send all of the newsletters. I'm not sure what I'll do if the list goes over 2500.

walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au is the contact address on our website. If you would like to continue to receive these newsletters, please include this address in your "friends list" so that it isn't blocked.

Emails sent to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au are currently automatically forwarded to rrwillis at internode.on.net. If you want to send an email to that address, replace the word "at" with the symbol @. I am trying not to put that address any place where it can be harvested by spam bots.

We don't want to add to the mass of email spam. If you don't want our newsletter, please send us an email and let us know. We'll then delete your name from our newsletter list.

Our email address is walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au.

Note. Both MailChimp and the other program we use to send some of these newsletters have an automatic delete at the bottom. Clicking that link will delete you from the mailing list on the server but it will not delete you from our main database. One of the programs will not allow the auto delete to send me an email notifying me that a deletion has been made. If you want to be sure that you are removed from all further mailings, please send an email to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au

If you know someone you think would enjoy this newsletter, please forward it to them. The more people who get it, the more likely it is that I'll be able to run the trips which might interest you.

I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed preparing it.
Russell Willis

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