Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 121, April 2023 ― The Fourth Turning Is Here

The Fourth Turning

In my Newsletter 108, I referred to a book called The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe. More than 20 years ago, they predicted the kind of chaos we are seeing today.

The Fourth Turning Is Here is a recent essay by Neil Howe expanding on their original. Here are a few good quotes. They refer to America, but they are really talking about the whole world.

• When will America's Fourth Turning end? Not until the early 2030s. Yet beware: History teaches that, before it ends, the nation must undergo a phase transition and experience a mood of national urgency, probably involving national conflict, on par with that of earlier Fourth Turnings ― the era of the Great Depression and World War II; the era of the U.S. Civil War; or the era of the American Revolution. By the time it's over, the old American republic will disappear. And a new American republic, as yet unrecognizable, will take its place.
• Incompetent governance, ebbing public trust, and declining public compliance all feed on one another in a vicious circle.
  One symptom is the rise of free-floating anger in public venues. Airlines, restaurants, hospitals, and police report an epidemic of unruliness. Road-rage traffic deaths are up, as are random mass shootings. Over the last two decades, Gallup's "negative experience" or sadness index for Americans has been steeply rising. So has the share of popular song lyrics that include synonyms for "hate" rather than "love."
• Today's rising generation, shell-shocked by the pervasive hollowing out of government, neighborhood, workplace, and family, is looking for any safe harbor it can find. Millennials seek not risk, but security. Not spontaneity, but planning. Not a free-for-all marketplace, but a rule-bound community of equals.
• To most Americans, the survival of democracy itself is not as essential as making sure their own side comes out on top. Just before the 2022 election, while 71 percent of voters agreed that "democracy is under threat," only 7 percent agreed that this was the biggest problem facing the country.
• Younger generations, meanwhile, are souring on democracy. At last count, Americans today in their thirties are less than half as likely as Americans over age sixty to agree that "it is essential to live in a democracy." A small but rapidly rising share of the young (about a quarter, twice as large as the share of the old) say democracy is a "bad" or "very bad" way to run the country. Most of these would prefer military rule. The young increasingly associate democracy with sclerosis and incapacity. For most of their lives, they've understood that the only organizations America still trusts to get things done are the Pentagon and Google. So many of them wonder: Isn't it time we just get on with it?

The full paper is ten pages. Skip the first three on economics if you want, the last seven is one of the most important things I've ever included in one of my newsletters.

Below is a collection of stories about how different parts of our society are breaking down.

• The American Crisis Intensifies is a similar, much shorter, article from Geopolitical Futures.
  "The brutal social issues, from race to gender to guns, create a public division that affects the functioning of government. Relations within the political system at all levels are increasingly venomous. The financial system has left an economic crisis. As forecast, the technological system will become increasingly inefficient, and the public appetite for its goods will be in decline. The financial system portends economic decline that will breed increasingly desperate and simplistic solutions, further drawing capital out of the financial system. For the first time in history, the institutional cycle and the social cycle will coincide."
  To some extent this applies to Australia.
• Shoplifting and customer abuse soar post-COVID, stores report
• The Year We Lost It *
  We're living in a rage-filled emotional dystopia. Is there a way out? "We know what the world used to be like." And the world is no longer like that.
  "We cannot be our old selves," Ms. Tawwab explained. "So many of us are trying to operate in the way that we used to, and we just can't do that anymore." And that's driving us a little bit nuts.
  Captures our times well. Has a link to finest freakouts youtube channel.
  "The basic thing is change," Dr. Epstein said. "People are afraid of change, unsettled by change, and made to feel helpless by random events that are beyond our control." Seen this way, the pandemic ― no matter your politics or personal masking policies ― has been the ultimate upheaval, leaving everyone feeling lost and unmoored.
• Capitalism Without Competition
  The article is 4 years old, even truer now than it was then. Do we really live in a capitalist society. I'd say no.
• Minimum wage increases often help rich households more than poor ones
  Counterintuitive. Worth the read.
• Gambling industry's dozens of free event tickets to federal MPs raise fears of potential conflicts of interest
  About 150 free tickets to sports, shows and hospitality have been given to politicians since the 2019 election, according to analysis
• Teen girls 'engulfed' in violence and trauma, CDC finds **
  "Nearly 1 in 3 high school girls reported in 2021 that they seriously considered suicide ―: up nearly 60 percent from a decade ago ― according to new findings from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Almost 15 percent of teen girls said they were forced to have sex, an increase of 27 percent over two years and the first increase since the CDC began tracking it."
  It's not as bad in Australia, but there are signs that we are moving in that direction. We created the society that allowed this to happen.
• How We Think About Politics Changes What We Think About Politics *
  "Belief polarization occurs when two people with opposing prior beliefs both strengthen their beliefs after observing the same data."
  Explains why America is not going to change anytime soon. Unlike America, in Australia third parties and independents can make a difference. This helps keep us some degree away from the kind of political polarisation that is destroying America.
• America the Merciless *
  What, if anything, makes this country different from other countries, or from the rest of the developed world, in terms of morals or ideals? In what ways do our distinct values inform how America treats its own citizens?
  I land on a distinct absence of mercy.
• Don't Let Republican 'Judge Shoppers' Thwart the Will of Voters' *
  One more example of just how badly the system in America is broken. Thankfully, we don't have the same problem in Australia.

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Water

It is conceivable that 2023 or 2024 will be the year when water finally makes the world change.

From Geopolitical Futures

• Don't Forget About Water in 2023
  This finite resource will have plenty of countries on edge in the coming year.
• Water Scarcity in the Arab World
  It's a problem with no solution in sight.
• Romania: Warnings of water crisis across Eurasian World Island. Antonia Colibasanu, Geopolitical Futures.
  15 minute podcast

California Floods

• Before and after: See the impact of California storms from space **
• California's paradox: Confronting too little water, and too much **
• California's not done. Three more atmospheric rivers are on the way. **
  The strips of deep tropical moisture are deluging the state, causing flood concerns and mountain snows.
• Northern California sees historic deluge as atmospheric river slams state **
  San Francisco's second-wettest day on record brings flooding, while Sacramento County braces for 'an imminent levee failure'
• As California's wells dry up, residents rely on bottled water to survive **
  groundwater in some places has fallen in one year by hundreds of feet.
• How Droughts in Mexico Could Shape the Future of the Beer Industry *
  Brewers and other heavy water users have landed at the center of the climate fight in Mexico as the government and industry confront water shortages in the north.
• A 'megaflood' in California could drop 100 inches of rain, scientists warn **
  It hasn't happened since 1862, but California is due for another one
• The coming California megastorm *
  More detail than the one from Washington Post
• These maps illustrate the seriousness of the western drought **
• Rio Grande runs dry in Albuquerque for the first time in 40 years **
• Record rain is hitting drought-stricken areas. That's not good news. **
  A warmer climate is driving precipitation to higher extremes in both flooding and drought
• Five 1,000-year rain events have struck the U.S. in five weeks. Why? **
  Precipitation extremes are now more feast or famine because of climate change
• California got all the snow and rain it needed. Now those could threaten a disaster. **
  Rapid melting could mean catastrophic damage to communities and aging flood-control systems in the valleys below the Sierra Nevada
• See What California's Record Snowpack Looks Like, Up Close *
  Sensors on low-flying planes can measure mountaintop snow with great precision, helping forecasters predict what will happen as it melts.
  Good, bad or both?

Colorado River

• As the Colorado River Shrinks, Washington Prepares to Spread the Pain ** *
  The seven states that rely on the river for water are not expected to reach a deal on cuts. It appears the Biden administration will have to impose reductions.
  Little or none of the rain that hit California hit the Colorado basin
• Disaster scenarios raise the stakes for Colorado River negotiations **
• Officials fear 'complete doomsday scenario' for drought-stricken Colorado River **
  
• Long Stretches of the Mississippi River Have Run Dry. What's Next? *
• The Coming Crisis Along the Colorado River *
  Lake Mead, the nation's largest reservoir by volume, fed by the Colorado and three smaller tributaries, is nearly three-quarters empty and at its lowest level since April 1937, when it was first being filled.
  Agriculture is by far the biggest user. What happens when the US can no longer feed itself?
• The Colorado River Is Running Dry, but Nobody Wants to Talk About the Mud *
  It's time to drill holes in Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River and empty Lake Powell.

Ground Water

• Groundwater Decline and Depletion
  This is some years old but it shows the scale of the problem. It's worse now.
• Water wells are at risk of going dry in the US and worldwide
  Graph shows how much India's extraction has increased in recent years. How long before the catastrophe?
• Millions of Groundwater Wells Could Run Dry
  Overpumping, drought and climate change are lowering water tables worldwide.
  "As much as 20% of the world's groundwater wells may be facing imminent failure, potentially depriving billions of people of fresh water.
• Closer to home, after a particularly poor wet season a few years ago, the springs that are the main feature of the Howard Springs Nature Park ran dry as did a number of wells in the Darwin rural area because of too many people pumping too much water out of the ground. It can only get worse.

Civilisations Fall

• Drought may have doomed this ancient empire ― a warning for today's climate crisis **
  Seems to be true of several of the civilisations in the Americas as well as others around the world.
• Jordan Is Running Out of Water, a Grim Glimpse of the Future *
  The small Middle Eastern nation is already one of the driest countries in the world and rising heat, coupled with a growing population, is making things much worse. A lot of that population growth has been refugees. Using ground water keeps things going in the short term but it WILL run out. And then ....
• Back in the USA, As Drought Drops Water Level in the Mississippi, Shipwrecks Surface and Worries Rise *
  The river known for its vast reach and powerful currents has withered to levels not seen in decades, choking shipping lanes and endangering drinking water supplies.

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True Freedom

As I've gotten older, I've discovered that real freedom is a combination of three things ....

1. The ability to feel gratitude, no matter your circumstances
2. The ability to consciously form your own opinions, regardless of their popularity
3. The ability to pick the path you want to follow, no matter what the world thinks of you

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The World

Australia is so tied to trade and the world economy that what happens elsewhere affects us. Here are some interesting stories from around the world.

India

India will soon overtake China as the most populous country in the world. It's a democracy, but that democracy is under threat.

• Leader of Indian Party Opposing Modi Is Sentenced in Defamation Case *
  Rahul Gandhi, who leads the main opposition party, received a two-year sentence for a comment in 2019 criticizing Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
• The World’s Biggest Democracy Is Jettisoning Freedom and Tolerance *
  Even though the documentary, "India: The Modi Question," which was made by the BBC, could not easily be watched in India, the government cracked down hard. It used emergency powers to ask that Twitter and YouTube block links to bootlegged clips, and the platforms quickly complied. When groups of students tried to screen illicit copies on campuses, the police roughed up and detained them. On one campus in New Delhi, administrators shut off the electricity to prevent a screening.
• Tracking rising religious hatred in India, from half a world away **
  the website has angered the increasingly authoritarian government of right-wing Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which critics charge promotes the idea that the Hindu majority is superior and tolerates deadly crimes against Muslims and Christians.

Japan

• Older Japanese men, lost in the kitchen, turn to housework school **
• Japan's Business Owners Can't Find Successors. This Man Is Giving His Away. *
  An owner's struggle in Japan's northern dairy region illuminates one of the potentially devastating economic impacts of an aging society. But maybe this is what the world needs if our civilisation is to survive.
• A 95-Square-Foot Tokyo Apartment: 'I Wouldn't Live Anywhere Else' *
  Meet the young Japanese who have decided to live in a shoe box. 95 sq feet is a bit less than 3 sq metres.

Germany

• First Black Woman in Bundestag Wants to Change Image of ‘Germanness' *
  After a deadly racist attack, Awet Tesfaiesus considered leaving Germany. Instead, she ran for Parliament with a "courage to change" slogan and won.
• Can Germany's New Chancellor Revive the Left in Europe? *
  Olaf Scholz wants to win back workers who defected to the populist far right. Success could make him a model for Social Democrats everywhere.
• Germany Has a Problem *
  A reckoning with the far right is long overdue.

Other Europe

• In Finland, a Partying Prime Minister Draws Tuts, and Cheers *
  Leaked videos featuring Sanna Marin dancing have raised the question of whether she is held to a different standard than older, male leaders are.
• She remained popular and her party increased its vote, but her coalition collapsed and she lost her job.
  Finland's election: what happened to Sanna Marin and what to expect next
  As far as I can tell, the new coalition government hasn't officially been sworn in.
• An engineering marvel just saved Venice from a flood. What about when seas rise? **

Africa

• Mapped: Visualizing the True Size of Africa
  The familiar Mercator map projection tends to distort our geographical view of the world in a crucial way ― one that often leads to misconceptions about the relative sizes of both countries and continents.
  The African continent has a land area of 30.37 million sq km (11.7 million sq mi) ― enough to fit in the U.S., China, India, Japan, Mexico, and many European nations, combined.
• 'Life Brought Me Here.' An Island Nation Adapts to a Changing Climate *
  Droughts, cyclones and floods have forced the people of Madagascar, a poor country in the southern Indian Ocean, to find new homes, new livelihoods and even new diets.
  We used to offer trips to Madagascar and would like to do so again. Click here to see what we might have been able to do in 2020 if Covid hadn't got in the way. Please use the contact us form on our website if you think you might be interested in a 2024 trip like the one described.

Iran

• Rise in Iranian assassination, kidnapping plots alarms Western officials **
• Is the poisoning of schoolgirls in Iran a new front in the war against girls' education?

• What Can U.S. Democracy Learn From Brazil? *
  Both nations had presidents who attacked their elections. But their responses ― and the aftermaths ― were much different.
• 'We Have to Come Here to Be Seen: Protesters Descend on Lima *
  Peru's unrest continues unabated as the demonstrations move to the country’s capital and the government doubles down on portraying demonstrators as pawns for nefarious interests.
• They depend on Machu Picchu to survive. They shut it down anyway. **
  A few small video clips and a good story that reporters really had to work to get.

Elsewhere

• In Sweeping New Law, Indonesia Outlaws Sex Outside of Marriage *
  An earlier version of the bill was shelved in 2019 after tens of thousands of young people protested in the streets, arguing that the law threatened their civil liberties.
  Authorities say it won't apply to tourists, but who knows what will happen in the longer term
• The unique ways Filipinos are protecting their homes against floods **
  People in Australia who are going to remain in flood prone areas need to consider things like this.
• Remember that big earthquake in Turkey not long ago? See the earthquake’s total devastation through before and after images **
  Brings it home better than most with before & after pics
• Women in South Korea Are on Strike Against Being 'Baby-Making Machines' *

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Education

Australian Universities

• 'Appallingly unethical': why Australian universities are at breaking point
• 'No actual teaching': alarm bells over online courses outsourced by Australian universities
  Exclusive: degrees marketed as being from major universities are increasingly run by third-party companies with pre-recorded lectures and no tutorials
• Australian universities split on using new tool to detect AI plagiarism
  Turnitin claims its device is 98% accurate but some institutions are concerned about not having enough time to make a decision despite Turnitin's alleged high efficiency rate, it hadn't had the opportunity to test the claim prior to the public release of the tool.
  "Education providers .... are also concerned the tool has been trained using out-of-date AI text generator models"

Three stories I liked

• The Wondrous Connections Between Mathematics and Literature *
  The idea that one would have to choose between mathematics and literature is, I think, something of a tragedy ― not only because the two fields are inextricably, and fundamentally, linked, but also because understanding these links can enhance your enjoyment of both.
  Good mathematics, like good writing, involves an inherent appreciation of structure, rhythm and pattern. That feeling we get when we read a great novel or a perfect sonnet ― that here is a beautiful thing, with all the component parts fitting together perfectly in a harmonious whole ― is the same feeling a mathematician experiences when reading a beautiful proof.
  Back in the 1960s, the American education system didn't force you to choose to anywhere near the same degree as it did in Australia. I studied both arts & sciences right through my post-graduate years.
• At This School, Computer Science Class Now Includes Critiquing Chatbots *
  Move over, coding. Some schools are asking student programmers to think critically about rapid advances in artificial intelligence.
• How Finland Is Teaching a Generation to Spot Misinformation *
  The Nordic country is testing new ways to teach students about propaganda. Here's what other countries can learn from its success.

American Censorship

• Parents, be warned! There will be art in this art class! **
  The principal of Tallahassee Classical School was forced to resign this week after sixth-grade art students were shown images of Michelangelo's David and parents complained. It's a bit tongue in cheek but the full article shows just where we could be going.
• A Look Inside the Textbooks That Florida Rejected *
  The state rejected dozens of math textbooks. The New York Times reviewed 21 of them to figure out why.
• The Fight Over 'Maus' Is Part of a Bigger Cultural Battle in Tennessee *
  State lawmakers, led by the governor, are rethinking what public school students should read and learn.
• The Censoring of an Iranian American Artist *
  "I think this moment, when we're facing down a wave of censorship inspired by religious fervor, is a good time to quash the notion that people have a right to be shielded from discomfiting art. If progressive ideas can be harnessed to censor feminist work because it offends religious sensibilities, perhaps those ideas bear rethinking."
  "in the 20th century, the avant-garde imagined its audience as numb, repressed and in need of being shocked awake. The 21st-century model, by contrast, "presumes the audience to be damaged, in need of healing, aid, and protection."
• Art Spiegelman on Life With a '500-Pound Mouse Chasing Me' *
  Known for his Pulitzer Prize-winning comic book, "Maus", the author has had a busy year, after the book was banned and jump-started a fresh debate about the sanitization of history. Frankly, he's ready to get back to work.
  To Spiegelman, the decision to remove "Maus" from schools reflects a more insidious campaign to sanitize disturbing chapters of history, under the guise of "protecting" children.
  "They want a kinder, gentler, fuzzier Holocaust," he said.

If we feel that we can't face what actually happened in the past, I believe we are doomed to repeat those same kinds of behaviours.

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