Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 122, June 2023 ― Never To Be Repeated
Our loss could be your gain. Details in the first section below. Some of these specials will disappear by sometime on Friday 16 June. Get in fast if you're interested.
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In this issue
- WW 2023 ― Never To Be Repeated Specials
All sorts of things happening. Our loss could be your gain. - The Fourth Turning
- Water ― Too Much Or Not Enough
- Protecting Yourself from Scams etc.
- Understanding China
- WW 2023 Trips ― August Onwards
- The Lighter Side
- News About this Newsletter
WW 2023 ― Never To Be Repeated Specials
Due to circumstances beyond our control, we are stuck with spare seats on aircraft and trips that will run at a loss. Something is better than nothing so ....
- Drysdale 1: 18 June - 2 July
$3000 discount. Our charter aircraft have space for two more people. We want to sell the seats so we are offering it for only $3795. It will never be this cheap again.
Guides: Russell Willis & Cassidy Gerken. - Drysdale 2: 2-16 July
$3000 discount. It's a much smaller group than Drysdale 1 but our return aircraft has space for one more person, maximum weight including pack 100 kg. We want to sell the seat so we are offering it at $3795. It will never be this cheap again.
Guide: Cassidy Gerken.
Our YouTube Drysdale Playlist now has five short videos showing different parts of the\is trip. - Kakadu Highlights No. 6: 16-30 July
$2000 discount. We guaranteed the departure for a very small group .... and then had two cancellations. Ouch.
We'd like to salvage something so we are offering a $2000 discount on the full trip (new price $2495) or a $1000 discount on either section on its own.
Guide: Don Butcher. Special offer for those doing only one section in the PDF trip notes. - Kimberley Highlights No. 2: 17-26 August
$800 discount. New price $2695. We normally need five bookings to run our Kimberley trips. We have two. I'd like to run it so I'll run it for as few as three at the new discount price. - Kakadu Day Walks: 8-12 September
This is by far the easiest trip in our program. I was asked to put it on for a small group and agreed to run it for only three for only $995 each (plus expenses). There are still only three plus myself and my partner Carol. We may never offer a trip like this again. If you aren't fit enough for one of our other trips, this might be your best chance to do something with us. - $500 discount. Namibia: September-October, about 4 weeks.
Guide: Russell Willis. I gave up and guaranteed the departure for four when I discovered that the two-day Tok Tokkie Trail had only space for six: myself, my partner and the four. Anyone joining now will have two days on their own. Plenty to do in the area, or just relax.
If you think you might be interested, please send me an email and put Namibia in the subject line.
The Fourth Turning
In my last newsletter, the lead article was about The Fourth Turning, a major change to society that seems to happen every four generations.
I recently came across an interview with the author, Neil Howe. This is going to affect everyone now alive. Click the link to see the full interview. If you don't have time to read the full thing, here are a few quotes.
- ... we discovered in doing that, almost accidentally, was that generations don't just come at random. That is to say, generations differ from each other in a pattern. Certain generations always follow other generations. For example, coming after Boomer-like generations, what we call the Prophet Archetype, who always come of age during these great awakenings in American history, is typically a kind of cynical, pragmatic X-er type of generation.
- ... we also noticed that it fit, in an interesting way, with a recurring cycle in American history that many people had already noticed. Right? And that is that the country has gone through these wrenching civic crises, enormous conflicts, typically, between two communities, and civic crises, a reconstruction of our politics and economics, sort of the outer world of our political infrastructure, about every 80 or 90 years, about the length of a long human life.
- ... one thing we can talk about is about whether or not this cycle has become global. A lot of the trends we see, and a lot of the generational events that we've seen over the last century, are increasingly synchronized globally. Obviously, the Great Depression and World War II, the rise of fascism in much of the world and so on, everything that went on, of course, in the 1930s. Conservatives called it the Red Decade, but then leftists called it the Fascist Decade. That was a global phenomenon and encompassed much of the world. And the awakening of the 1970s was also a global phenomenon, youth everywhere protesting against oppressively authoritarian and establishment-minded rulers around the world, who had survived and come of age during World War II.
- ... it's a Fourth Turning. It's a time of great upheaval. Then coming out of this is a First Turning, a period of renewal.
- ... one thing to understand about a crisis is that it always ends in a radical mobilization of community life. If there is one thing that's missing in America, and all of the opinion polls show this, is Americans sense an utter loss of national community. And one thing coming out of a Fourth Turning is that is refound, emphatically. That requires a mobilization of community. And the historical track record is that is always done through extreme conflict.
- Today's kids, who are coming of age, have less in common with Americans coming of age in the early 1960s, who left high school, got married, had kids, had permanent jobs in a couple of years, and were already entering what we would call adulthood. Today you have Jeffrey Arnett and many sociologists saying we need to invent a new term called "emerging adulthood." Adulthood is no longer starting today until the late 20s. People are looking forward to capstone marriages by age 30 or 31 or something. What's changing it is the fact that the economy is no longer growing for young people, and they find it much harder to get started.
- "Young adults are significantly less likely to say they adhere to traditional values than older Americans, but few regard money as a replacement for what has been lost. Most young adults, in fact, look for employment that offers stability and security rather than a chance to get rich. Money is simply all that's left over. Once you no longer feel that you belong to a common country or a common community, money is simply all that's left over."
John Mauldin who I have often quoted in these newsletters had two recent articles about the crises we're facing. I think his points are so important that I've included more quotes than usual. both articles are well worth reading in their entirety.
- A Much Needed Crisis
- "the futility of budget negotiations. Any change significant enough to matter draws vigorous opposition from those who depend on the status quo. Every spending program has a well-organized constituency. Politicians of both parties pay attention, so we get a lot of noise and little real action."
- "we're talking relative debt here. Governments, households, and businesses are all in trouble. In the end, Bill thinks we may see both very high inflation and deflation as well. None of the scenarios are good. They're simply different. ... once we get past the initial stages, people will start questioning the institutional structures that let it all happen. That crisis of confidence in institutions and government, coupled with the economic chaos that it creates, will make the public want to 'fix things.'"
- "What we face over the next decade is a very sobering environment. We have two leaderless parties in the United States, driven by debilitating partisanship, leading a government that's currently heading into default in a world surrounded by building great power threats… Moreover, we have all of the long-term recession indicators pointing to a downturn at the outset of a decade, which we know, in demographic terms, is going to be record-low economic growth, not only for the United States but for the developed world and even the emerging economies, just driven by demographic reality, very little working-age population growth. This is a very challenging environment which could go critical at any time.
"I think the upside of the decade we're moving into is that great challenges, particularly when they become crises, galvanize people to engage. And that's what gives me optimism because Americans always have a wonderful track record once they are fully engaged citizens. This is a country capable of miracles, but it is going to require that kind of urgency, that kind of engagement." - "Neil has been saying since the 1990s the Fourth Turning would shake the country to its core and one particular generation would lead us out of the abyss. Last time around it was what we now call "The Greatest Generation" who pulled the country through the Great Depression and fought World War II. Their successors are the Millennial generation, children of the 1980s and 1990s. They will gain influence as my generation begins leaving the scene. Neil Howe thinks they will do what it takes.
We only touched briefly on the fact that both Neil Howe and George Friedman and others are predicting a serious conflict accompanying this economic crisis. The problem is we don't know where the conflict will come from or what it will be. Will it be an internal conflict within the US and other countries? Will it be a geopolitical conflict? We have no way of knowing today."
- Storm Cycles
- "the rage and mutual loathing of today ― and their failure to recede ― are odd, particularly when the institutional issue, which neither Roosevelt nor Reagan had to deal with, is included. The degree and type of rage and contempt today's American public has for other members of the public are different."
- "the precise mix of events that leads to crisis varies, but two drivers of instability loom large. The first is popular immiseration ― when the economic fortunes of broad swaths of a population decline. The second, and more significant, is elite overproduction ― when a society produces too many superrich and ultra-educated people, and not enough elite positions to satisfy their ambitions."
- "The Over-Production of Elites in China. In a stunning reversal, about a quarter of young Chinese cannot find jobs. This employment malaise says something about the youth of both countries who have lost their most precious possession, a vision for their future."
- "Few realize that by the end of this century America's population could exceed China's. The rate of population decline matters in terms of GDP growth. In general, we overestimate China's resources and economic strength. As I have been saying for many months now, the country is not going to recover from the Zero-Covid lockdowns quickly, or perhaps ever.
I hope I live long enough to see the start of what comes next. More than that, I hope it will be a society I would like to live in.
Water ― Too Much Or Not Enough
Too Little
- Severe Drought Forces Panama Canal To Impose Shipping Restrictions
It's got worse since then. It's going to increase prices of all sorts of things around the world. - Arizona Limits Construction Around Phoenix as Its Water Supply Dwindles *
In what could be a glimpse of the future as climate change batters the West, officials ruled there's not enough groundwater for projects already approved.
How long before parts of Australia need to do the same?
Too Much
- Potholes, warped rail lines and washed-away roads: flood-hit regions face infrastructure crisis
Even with the deployment of extra staff and machinery, repairs are likely to take 'many months' ― and cost billions
The scale of the damage means that it is likely to affect food supplies. - Insurers slashed Hurricane Ian payouts far below damage estimates, documents and insiders reveal **
A Washington Post investigation has found that some policyholders had their claims cut by more than 80 percent
Could it happen here? If claims are high enough, probably yes. Why should companies insure people in homes on floodplains if they know that they will eventually lose money? - Warming seas are carving into glacier that could trigger sea level rise **
New research provides a startling look at how warmer oceans, driven by climate change, are gouging the West Antarctic's Thwaites Glacier
Sea level in Darwin has risen enough for me to notice in the time I've been here. If you live near the coast, it's coming to you.
Protecting Yourself from Scams etc.
Scams
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Australians lost more than $3bn to scammers in 2022. Here are 5 emerging scams to look out for
- Why knowing how to spot a scam doesn't always protect you **
For years, I've coached people on how to avoid cons. Still, the red flags aren't obvious to victims.- Love-struck Aussies lost $40.6 million to romance scams in 2022
That's what was reported. "The ACCC estimates only about 13 per cent of scams are reported." That could put it up close to $300 million.- Retirees Are Losing Their Life Savings to Romance Scams. Here's What to Know. *
Con artists are using dating sites to prey on lonely people, particularly older ones, in a pattern that accelerated during the isolation of the pandemic, federal data show. Can talk about my own experience. If it seems too good to be true, it is. - Why knowing how to spot a scam doesn't always protect you **
Other
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Supermarket psychology ― tactics to get you to spend more
How to stay alert to the sales tricks used in the supermarket aisle and save money when you shop. - Unwanted Connection: Who Has Control of Your Smart Home? *
The proliferation of devices creates more opportunities for people to lose access or power over aspects of the home. -
Domestic Abusers Can Control Your Devices. Here's How to Fight Back. *
Here's how to record abuse without being discovered, safeguard your devices, and, ultimately, protect yourself. An article published in the Journal of Family Violence in January 2020 found that between 62 and 72 percent of women (the only gender surveyed) have been stalked, and 60 to 63 percent have experienced technology-based abuse by an intimate partner.
I had no idea how bad things like this were.
Understanding China
- The Overproduction of Elites in China
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China's New Tech Weapon: Dragging Its Feet on Global Merger Approvals **
Beijing has slowed down antitrust reviews of proposed deals by American firms, people close to the process say - China Draws Lessons From Russia's Losses in Ukraine, and Its Gains *
With an eye on a possible conflict over Taiwan, analysts have scrutinized the war for insights ranging from the importance of supply lines to the power of nuclear threats. - In China, Marriage Rates Are Down and 'Bride Prices' Are Up *
Chinas one-child policy has led to too few women. Grooms are now paying more money for wives, in a tradition that has faced growing resistance. - Chinese balloon part of vast aerial surveillance program, U.S. says **
Spy balloon effort operates in Hainan province off China's south coast and has for years collected information on military assets in several countries, officials said - China Sends Spy Balloons Over Military Sites Worldwide, U.S. Officials Say *
The balloons have some advantages over the satellites that orbit the earth in regular patterns. They fly closer to earth and can evade radar. - In China's Covid Fog, Deaths of Scholars Offer a Clue *
After Covid ripped uncontrolled through China, the government announced that 80,000 people had died. But that is likely a vast undercount. We scoured obituaries of the nation's top academics for clues about the true toll of the outbreak. - China Aids Russia's War in Ukraine, Trade Data Shows **
Despite sanctions, Moscow equips its jet fighters, submarines and soldiers with help of Chinese companies
I got past the paywall using the Facebook trick mentioned in the last section. - China and the U.S. Are Wooing Indonesia, and Beijing Has the Edge *
The resource-laden nation of nearly 300 million is a big prize in the strategic battle between the United States and China for influence in Asia.
WW 2023 Trips ― August Onwards
Click here and scroll down to see the trips we are still offering this year.
- Four of those trips are mentioned in WW 2023 ― Never To Be Repeated Specials at the beginning of this newsletter.
- Three others are definite departures.
- Mitchell Plateau No. 2: 23 July - 6 August
Only 4 places left. Guide: Cassie Newnes. - New Caledonia: 6-24 August
Fully booked. Definite departure, guide: Sébastian Heritier. We are taking a waitlist. If you might be interested in a similar trip in 2024, Click the link and see what it's like. - Cassie's Kakadu Yoga Retreat: 13-19 August is now a definite departure. It's very different to our other trips. Those who have done similar trips in the past have all thought they were excellent. Click the link and see what you think.
- Mitchell Plateau No. 2: 23 July - 6 August
- None of the other trips through to the end of the year have bookings. Our guides all have other things to do. They need plenty of notice to make sure they are available. Some of those trips be cancelled. If any of those trips interests you, the sooner you contact us, the more likely it is that it will run.
The Lighter Side
- Here are some of the best entries in the 2023 Australian Geographic Nature Photographer of the Year contest
Fantastic photography! - Our recent Gulf to Gregory trip had to have major modifications to the Gregory end do to floods earlier in the year. Here's a video from the Victoria River roadhouse. The river is normally at least ten metres below the bridge.
When I first tried the link, I saw a collection of earlier videos, now I only see one. Maybe you'll have better luck - Someone you probably never heard of is worth remembering.
Tony Vaccaro, 100, Dies; Photographed War From a Soldier's Perspective *
After carrying a camera across battlefields, he became a magazine photographer known for his images of famous subjects like Georgia O'Keeffe and Greta Garbo.
News About This Newsletter
Restricted websites. The NY Times allows non-subscribers to look at ten free articles each month. I've got more links than that in this newsletter so I've marked them with a red asterisk (*) so that you can choose which are of most interest to you. Bloomberg allows three free articles. The Washington Post and The Economist both have limits but I'm not sure what the current limits are so I've marked their articles with a double red asterisk (**).
How to Get Past a Paywall to Read an Article for Free
Even if you regularly support journalism by paying, sometimes you need to get around it.
Coming Next Issue
• Not sure. It will be a surprise to me as well as you.
• When? When I have time. That might be a while.
As always, I welcome a bit of feedback about some of the things in this newsletter and suggestions for the next one.
Sending the newsletter
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I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed preparing it.
Russell Willis