Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 123, July 2023 ― Too Much Info?
Every remaining 2023 trip will be confirmed or cancelled by mid August. Our office will be closed from 26 September through 5 November. I will have occasional email access during that time and will do what I can to answer emails and refer questions about early 2024 trips to the guides most likely to be leading them.
Our economy depends on an ever increasing population spending money they don't have on things they don't need. There is a better way. See Less is More ― Our Unsustainable Economy for an alternative.
The last story in the section on Understanding China took me by surprise. It's something that should be given a lot more publicity than it has received to date.
If you are viewing this on a mobile, the newsletter and many of the links should work better in a horizontal format.
Restricted content. Articles marked * or ** are on restricted websites Click for more info, including how you can sometimes avoid the paywalls.
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In this issue
Willis's Walkabouts ― Too Much Info?
The photo at left shows one of our client's tent on the final morning of our Drysdale 1 trip in July this year. It's wet, very wet. Here's what he wrote to me when he sent the photo, "The wet weather that we encountered on Drysdale 1 was a complete surprise to me and others. To keep my pack weight down I don't carry a tent fly however after reading your notes I fortunately included a painting drop sheet. This kept me dry."
I don't think we'll ever get every single piece of useful info into a single document, but I do think we can do better. If you can help us do that, it could be VERY worth your while ― and many people will be grateful for what you've done. Here's a list of the important things. Our current website doesn't allow us to link to PDF files from outside the website, so the links will take you to the old site which still hosts all these newsletters.
- Bushwalking Essentials
This is so important that we'd rather that people who don't read it, don't come on any of our trips. Our registration form makes you say that you've read or will read it. Sadly, there is no way to ensure that everyone has actually done so. - The registration form also asks if you have received two other important documents. It doesn't ask if you've read them. Maybe I need to change that.
- Trip Notes
Every trip has its own set of notes. The sample here is for one of the few remaining trips this year. - The General Information Sheet
This has important info about our vehicles, cancellation policy and how we rate the level of difficulty of our trips. The Australian standard doesn't really apply as almost all our trips are off-track. That's why we've had to create our own standard.
- Trip Notes
- Travel Insurance
Our travel insurance document explains why it is important and why some insurance is paid for in grams on your back rather than dollars in your wallet. This is the document the bloke who provided the photo was referring to. - Last, but not least, our original Bushwalking Guide
This is the most comprehensive document we have. It needs a major update. Suggestions welcome.
Bushwalking Essentials Video
Many people don't like to read anything as long as the Bushwalking Essentials guide. We are considering putting its contents into one or more videos. A horizontal format is probably better at conveying the information than a vertical one. If you have any thoughts or suggestions about this, please send us an email and let us know.
WW ― The Rest of 2023
Four definite departures.
- Kakadu Yoga Retreat: 13-19 August
Only two places left. Guides: Cassie Newnes & Kate Roseth. - Kimberley Highlights No. 2: 17-26 August
$800 discount. Guide: Cassidy Gerken.
Two sections, either of which can be done on it's own. Section 1 is an easy acclimatisation paddle down the Ord River with a number of short walks along the way. Section two is a six day walk in the Carr Boyd Range, one of the few places we can be sure to find plenty of water at this time of year.
It's a very small group so we're offering the discount to encourage others to book. Our past client and membership discounts apply to the discount price. - Kakadu Day Walks: 8-12 September
Only one place left. Guide: Russell Willis
This is by far the easiest trip in our program. I was asked to put it on for a small group and agreed to run it for only three for only $995 each (plus expenses). There are still only four. I can only take five plus my wife. We may never offer a trip like this again. If you aren't fit enough for one of our other trips, this might be your best chance to do something with us.
We definitely still have one space available. Whether or not we can take more depends on whether or not we can add to some of the bookings we've already made. - $500 discount. Namibia: 28 September - 28 October
Guide: Russell Willis. I gave up and guaranteed the departure for four when I discovered that the two-day Tok Tokkie Trail had only space for six: myself, my partner and the four. The two who have joined since will have two days on their own. Plenty to do in the area, or just relax.
Only two places available. Want to know more? Check out our Namibia videos
Four trips that will be cancelled if we don't get more bookings by mid August.
- Kakadu Highlights No. 9: 17-30 September
$1000 discount.. Our past client and membership discounts apply to the discount price.
Three sections, any of which can be done on its own. Section three may be combined with the Family Walk below.
Kakadu Family Walk No. 3: 22 or 23 to 30 September
The original trip was scheduled to begin on 23 September. If those who book wish to join those doing Kakadu Highlights no. 9 for the night at Cooinda and Yellow Waters cruise, we will include these at no extra charge. - Kakadu Birdwatching Special: 1-14 October
No one else offers a trip quite like this. Want to know more? Check out our Kakadu Birdwatching videos - Kakadu Highlights No. 10: 15-28 October
This is a very special time of year. Want to know more, see Kunumeleng ― The Build Up ― The Most Dramatic season of All
Children's discounts apply to this trip.
We may offer a relatively easy short trip just after Christmas. If so, it will appear on our What's New Page sometime between September and mid November
Hold Them Accountable
Politicians, bureaucrats and CEOs will keep doing whatever is most convenient unless or until society demands a change in a form that they can't mistake. (In politics, that's probably giving your first preference to a minor party or independent.)
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Greens push to crack down on political donors winning government contracts
Senator Larissa Waters says move would bar firms that donated in the past 12 months from receiving commonwealth grants. -
Why is it legal to tell lies during the Voice referendum campaign?
It is perfectly legal to spread misinformation and disinformation and tell outright lies about the proposed constitutional amendment, just as it is legal to tell lies during federal election campaigns.
While Australia has laws banning businesses from engaging in deceptive and misleading advertising about their products and services, there are no equivalent federal laws that apply to politics. By contrast, South Australia and the ACT have truth-in-political-advertising laws applying to their state and territory election campaigns. -
Daniel Andrews calls Victoria's election funding laws 'perfectly fair' amid Climate 200 criticism
Simon Holmes à Court says the laws make it 'nearly impossible' for independents to successfully campaign -
Australia's online gambling regulation far behind global pack, advocates find
Analysis from the Alliance for Gambling Reform comes as parliamentary inquiry examines the harm caused by online wagering.
Money talks and politicians listen. Is there any other possible explanation? Thankfully, there have been a few moves that begin to curb it, but they are only a beginning. -
'Ineffective' anti-corruption rules should be reviewed: former judge
It's much harder to show corruption in Victoria than elsewhere. What do they have to hide? -
FOI commissioner resigns, says change needed to address timeliness of reviews
The government didn't give him the power (or money) to do his job properly so he quit. Neither side of politics really likes Freedom Of Information. It will only get worse if people don't force a change. -
Before importing migrants, utilise Australia's 1.3m hidden unemployed
Lies, damned lies and statistics ― governments define things to make them look good. When this story was written, inflation in the US would have been well over 10% if it were still defined the way it was back in the 1980s.
The Answer?
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Federal Icac should have power to sack parliamentarians, independent MP says
Kylea Tink says she was 'shocked' by misconduct at Parliament House and a code of conduct should apply to all who work there
Personally, I like the idea.
Less is More ― Our Unsustainable Economy
Our economy depends on an ever increasing population spending money they don't have on things they don't need. We live in a finite world. No mainstream politician that I am aware of truly recognises this and recognises that the sooner we make dramatic changes the better.
Less Is More
"Less Is More ― How Degrowth Will Save the World" is a book by Jason Hinkel that should be required reading for anyone we elect to public office as well as every member of a bureaucracy that is equally ignorant as to the only possible solution to the crisis we are facing. Here's quote from one of the reviews I read.
"Of the many disconcerting paradoxes of our time, perhaps the most jarring is the idea that as our understanding of the causes and possible consequences of climate change improves, politicians are often unwilling to connect the dots and design policies to avert a catastrophe. This is a catastrophe that is rapidly unfolding before our very eyes. However else the political class may justify their inaction, they won't be able to claim they weren't warned."
- The review from which the quote was taken can be found on the Australian Institute for International Affairs website.
- The Amazon page has some good reviews as well as a way to order the book.
It is also available from Dymocks, Booktopia and many other retailers. - Finally, The author has his own website which includes a page about the book.
Will Government Funded Retirement Have To Disappear?
If you are under the age of 40, you'd better be prepared. If you are over 65, maybe you'll be lucky and die before the crunch comes.
- Women Are Having Fewer Babies Because They Have More Choices *
The birthrate is falling. That's not necessarily a bad thing. - How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World *
- It's not just a fiscal fiasco: greying economies also innovate less **
That compounds the problems of shrinking workforces and rising bills for health care and pensions - Dangerous Assumptions
• Historically speaking, this phase of life we call "retirement" is a new concept. The idea you could stop working at a certain age was unknown until quite recently. People worked as long as they physically could, then died quickly unless they had family or servants to care for them. That was normal and accepted.
• "It's critical to understand, pension benefits aren't optional. They must be paid as defined, and failure to do so constitutes default. In some states, governments are constitutionally required to pay the full benefit as promised. Seems fair, but what happens when pensions become 50% or more of your budget, and you want to raise taxes?"
• The liabilities themselves also involve assumptions. I mentioned life expectancy. That's fairly predictable in a large enough group, but things can change. A cure for cancer or heart disease would be wonderful for humanity, but a big problem for pension liabilities.
• Then, there's inflation. Many (most?) DB (Defined Benefit) plans include cost-of-living adjustments based on CPI or some other benchmark. That means the calculations have to reflect real returns. They don't need just 3% (or whatever target they pick) for ten years etc. They need 3% more than inflation for that period.
• The real problem is uncertainty. Defined benefit pensions are structured around so many assumptions about things no one can know ― the long-term risks are incalculable. That's why private businesses largely abandoned them long ago.
• Those who have the luxury of imposing taxes think differently; hence DB plans are still popular in governments, which can transfer the problem to other people who didn't create it. • I think history will look back and see this dream of a long, leisurely retirement was never sustainable or scalable for the whole population. Most of those who expect such a retirement will be sorely disappointed. - Pension Sandpile is an article that preceded the one above.
Whether or not you approve of what he did during his time in politics, you should give Peter Costello credit for realising that the government was going to have a problem meeting all it's promises and setting up the 'Future Fund'. As long as it exists, the Australian government should be able to keep its promises to people like me. Sadly, the same is NOT true of some of the state pension systems.
Survival of the Richest
Some of us are likely to have a problem when it comes to retiring. Some won't.
Since 2020, according to Oxfam analysis of Credit Suisse Data, the wealth grab by the super-rich has accelerated, and the richest 1% have captured almost two-thirds of all new wealth. This is six times more than the bottom 90% of humanity. Since 2020, for every dollar of new global wealth gained by someone in the bottom 90%, one of the world's billionaires has gained $1.7m. More info in Survival of the Richest.
I knew it was bad but I had no idea just how bad. How long until the revolution? When writing this, I was reminded of a science fiction story I read many years ago where the only medication people over age 65 were allowed were painkillers. No other medical treatments were permitted as society couldn't afford them. Except for the fact that the super rich could find a way around such restrictions, we just might be on a path where that will become true for the rest of us.
• That story must be on the internet somewhere but I couldn't find it. If anyone can give me a reference ― and how they found it ― it would be most appreciated.
Understanding China
We depend on China for many of our imports and depend on them to take many of our exports. Like it or not, the two economies are intertwined. If we don't understand China, we'll always come off second best.
Chinese Youth
- In China, Young People Ditch Prestige Jobs for Manual Labor *
Some people who've walked away from China's gruelling corporate culture say it's worth the financial sacrifice. "I was tired of living like that," one said. - China's 11.6m graduates face a jobs market with no jobs
With youth unemployment at a record high, the problem of overeducated young people is acute - Burnt out or jobless ― meet China's 'full-time children'
- Youths' desperate 'four no' attitude worries China
Job-insecure youngsters are giving up not just on home-ownership dreams but also on dating, marriage and family
China and Social Media
- How Bots Pushing Adult Content Drowned Out Chinese Protest Tweets *
Chinese protesters shared videos and photos to Twitter. But their posts were swarmed by escort and gambling ads. - Social media campaign linked to Chinese government spreading disinformation about Australian politics, thinktank says
Posts amplify content about sexual assault and misconduct allegations in Parliament House to undermine trust in political system, researchers say. - China's cyber interference narrows in on Australian politics and policy
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China accused of using social media to amplify division
Five minute radio broadcast covering the story above.
The Chinese Economy
- China's Economy Might Look Good on Paper, but It Feels Like a Recession **
Official data will likely show solid growth in the most recent quarter, but many say conditions in world's No. 2 economy are grim - Why China Has a Giant Pile of Debt *
A major lender abroad, China is facing a debt bomb at home: trillions of dollars owed by local governments, their financial affiliates, and real estate developers. -
China Locks Information on the Country Inside a Black Box **
Restrictions on Wind database and other information channels add to campaign to curb foreign influence. - China Extends a Hand to the West
Structural problems and an underwhelming economic recovery are driving Beijing to seek an accommodation. - China's property meltdown is gathering pace ― and it's bad news for Australia it's a longish article but well worth a read. Some quotes....
• China's economy is in serious trouble. The country's property sector, once a powerhouse of national economic growth, is in meltdown with predictions of worse to come.
• local media reports of civil servants enduring pay cuts and salary delays point to more challenging conditions than that implied by the official statistics.
• China's property sector is of unusually vital importance to Australia. It accounts for up to 40 per cent of the nation's steel demand. Hence, it is a crucial factor in the demand for our two biggest exports, iron ore and coal, the prices of which have both been declining.
Misc
- China Says Chatbots Must Toe the Party Line *
The Communist Party outlined draft rules that would set guardrails on the rapidly growing industry of services like ChatGPT. -
Chinese Dissidents' New Weapon Against Beijing: Sell-Out New York Comedy Shows **
Exiled activists rewrite playbook for resistance after being muzzled at home -
Wang Yi replaces Qin Gang as Chinese FM: What to know
• Qin Gang's removal is seen as an 'enormous shock' as the Chinese government reappoints Wang Yi to the post he once held.
• "There will be limitless speculations on what's behind this. Qin Gang was said to be a favorite of Xi Jinping, then suddenly disappeared and was now suddenly dismissed. These things don't happen without a reason."
• It's too early to say what the reason was but it definitely indicates something interesting happening behind the scenes.
Drugs
- This one needed a section of its own.
For the US, Fentanyl Is All About China
• In the U.S. alone, overdose deaths as a result of fentanyl use have skyrocketed over the past eight years to almost 110,000 in 2022.
• Chinese companies provide nearly all the precursor materials for fentanyl production in the Western Hemisphere. Not only that, but at least four Chinese companies offer information on optimizing fentanyl manufacturing, including providing customers with ingredients, advice on substitute ingredients, instructions on mixing and access to chemists. Other Chinese companies provide false labels on shipments and/or ship chemicals without keeping customer records.
Travel
Jetstar ― Number 3 in the World
Jetstar ranks as the third most unpopular airline in the world.
They achieved that distinction only because of a lack of competition and a government that is unwilling to give passengers the rights they have in many other countries.
Misc
- How to make it off a long-haul flight healthy and happy
- The 25 Travel Experiences You Must Have *
A pair of internationally minded writers, a chef, an architect and a landscape photographer made a list of the most extraordinary adventures a person should seek out. Here are the results. - As delays force airlines to cool their jets, there's a push to lawyer up irate passengers
If penalties come into effect, you might expect airfares to rise ― on the other hand, flights elsewhere where penalties apply are just as cheap. - Whatever Happened to Those Self-Service Passport Kiosks at Airports? *
More than 80 percent of all travellers entering the U.S. are now verified by facial recognition. The loss of older, seemingly more convenient methods has many perplexed. And then there are the privacy issues.
WW in 2024
Trip links in this section are for past years. The dates will change but the itineraries will be the same or nearly so. The links are so you can see what the trips are like. If no one is interested, they may not make it into the final 2024 program.
Kudjewk ― The Wet Season
We plan to offer at least two major expeditions and one much easier trip. Click the heading above for information about walking in the Wet.
- Major expeditions.
- Kakadu Super Circle No. 1: January
Depending on what people want, we may offer a three week or a four week version. The four week one would be easier.
It's too early to be sure, but we've been told that park management hopes to re-open the route west across the plain from Twin Falls to Surprise Falls. If that happens in time for this trip, it will allow us to miss some of the highlights that we haven't been able to visit for the past couple of years. - Bungles in the Wet: February
We fly in and out by helicopter. Those who've seen it in the Wet can hardly believe just how different it is to the dry season.
- Kakadu Super Circle No. 1: January
- 40th Anniversary Special
In February 1984, before I had registered the name "Willis's Walkabouts", I took my first paying clients into the Top End bush. That route is no longer accessible. Even if it were, I'm not sure that I could manage the route as the main guide so I'll celebrate with a special two to three week trip combining parts of Kakadu Light and the Green Kimberley. Those two trips will be replaced by the new one in 2024.
Special offer. For the first month after the new trip goes onto the website, I will accept bookings only from people who have walked with me (Russell) before. Next in line will be anyone else who expresses an interest by sending me an email shortly after this newsletter goes out.
Vehicle Based Trips
We have a number of trips which include more driving than most. They all include long day walks. Most include overnight walks as well. Examples include the Gulf to Gregory, Centralian Highlights and the Gibb Road Gorges trip (which we haven't been able to offer for some years). We are considering adding at least one more and linking trips together and offering big discounts depending on how many in a row run. We MIGHT even be able to include the Canning Stock Route in 2025.
If you have any thoughts about this kind of trip and whether or not you'd be interested, please send me an email and let me know what you think.
Kakadu Circle
If you look at our 40 year history, the single most popular bushwalking route is the Kakadu Circle. We haven't been able to run it for the past few years due to problems with feral animals on one short section. We have, however, been told that it should be possible to re-open that section next year. If that happens, we will offer three trips.
- Kakadu Circle No. 1: May, 3 weeks
I like the relatively leisurely pace of this trip. It was my favourite long trip in Kakadu. If it runs, I'll try and do is as one of two guides. - Kakadu Circle No. 2: June-July, 3 weeks
Slightly abbreviated and slightly faster. - Kakadu Circle No. 3: July-August, 16 days
The original route.
Numbers 2 & 3 will be divided into two sections, either of which can be done on its own. Number 1 will have a food drop, but it won't be possible to do only half.
Fire Walking
In the two weeks before this newsletter went out, I was approached by two different traditional owners from two different parts of Kakadu asking whether or not I thought any bushwalkers would be interested in accompanying them on a multi-day walk where they did some traditional burning from the ground rather than by dropping firebombs out of aircraft. I would be very interested, so I immediately said yes. I hope I'm right.
If you think you might be interested in a walk like this, please send me an email and I'll put you on a list for future updates.
The Lighter Side
Videos
- Try not to laugh
- Optical Illusion?
I have no idea how this was done. - Pedestrian Crossings
Some would say we need these.
Stills
News About This Newsletter
Restricted websites. The NY Times allows non-subscribers to look at ten free articles each month. I've got more links than that in this newsletter so I've marked them with a red asterisk (*) so that you can choose which are of most interest to you. Bloomberg allows three free articles. The Washington Post and The Economist both have limits but I'm not sure what the current limits are so I've marked their articles with a double red asterisk (**).
How to Get Past a Paywall to Read an Article for Free
Even if you regularly support journalism by paying, sometimes you need to get around it.
Coming Next Issue
• Younger generations. They will make the decisions that affect the end of our lives.
Not sure what else. It will be a surprise to me as well as you.
• When? Before I go overseas in late September.
As always, I welcome a bit of feedback about some of the things in this newsletter and suggestions for the next one.
Sending the newsletter
I'm now using a paid version of MailChimp to send all of the newsletters. I'm not sure what I'll do if the list goes over 2500.
walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au is the contact address on our website. If you would like to continue to receive these newsletters, please include this address in your "friends list" so that it isn't blocked.
Emails sent to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au are currently automatically forwarded to rrwillis at internode.on.net. If you want to send an email to that address, replace the word "at" with the symbol @. I am trying not to put that address any place where it can be harvested by spam bots.
We don't want to add to the mass of email spam. If you don't want our newsletter, please send us an email and let us know. We'll then delete your name from our newsletter list.
Our email address is walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au.
Note. Both MailChimp and the other program we use to send some of these newsletters have an automatic delete at the bottom. Clicking that link will delete you from the mailing list on the server but it will not delete you from our main database. One of the programs will not allow the auto delete to send me an email notifying me that a deletion has been made. If you want to be sure that you are removed from all further mailings, please send an email to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au
If you know someone you think would enjoy this newsletter, please forward it to them. The more people who get it, the more likely it is that I'll be able to run the trips which might interest you.
I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed preparing it.
Russell Willis