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  Newsletter 124, September 2023 - Willis's Walkabouts

Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 124, September 2023 ― 2024 First Chance

Our office is closing. The office will be closed from 26 September through 5 November. I will have occasional email access during that time and will do what I can to answer emails and refer questions about early 2024 trips to the guides most likely to be leading them.

If you are viewing this on a mobile, the newsletter and many of the links should work better in a horizontal format.

If you read nothing else, read the first link in the Your Money section. It could save you from financial ruin.

If you have financial problems, I strongly recommend the links in the Jared Dillian Money part of the Your Money section.

If you want to make sense of where our world is going, I recommend making time to read all the links in the The Fourth Turning section.

Restricted content. Articles marked * or ** are on restricted websites Click for more info, including how you can sometimes avoid the paywalls.

. Willis's Walkabouts logo

Summer Done Differently

Tourism NT is running a campaign called "Summer Done Differently" to try and encourage more people to visit during the summer months. Here's a link to their pools video. Nice enough but you still have company. Come on one of our summer trips and you will share the pools with no one but your walking companions. Here's a link to a play list of four short videos from our Kakadu Light trip and one from a harder walk to Barramundi Creek.

We've finalised the details of three major summer expeditions.

If there is any chance you might be interested in one of the above, the best place to begin is to read our Kudjewk ― The Wet Season page.

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The Fourth Turning ― Our Society Is Undergoing a Huge Change.

I've written about this in a number of newsletters, most recently in Newsletter 122. John Mauldin, who writes the free economic newsletter Thoughts from the Frontline has recently done a series about what's happening. In order they are,

  • Turning Time
    introduces you to Neil Howe's concept of generational archetypes and how they lead to a "Fourth Turning" crisis.
  • Turning Time, Part 2
    is about the Baby Boomer generation;s unique traits and values, which he thinks will produce a surprising final act.
  • Turning Time, Part 3
    looks at the Millennials, the "Hero" generation who will lead society through the Fourth Turning and then build a new, better world after it ends.
  • Storms and Patterns
    reviews George Friedman's Storm Before the Calm book and how two overlapping cycles are both about to peak at the same time.
  • The Science of Cycles
    turns to Peter Turchin's "cliodynamics" method of historical analysis, which reveals societies everywhere have recurrent waves of instability as elites both fight each other and use a "wealth pump" to extract resources from the population.
  • Noble Sacrifices
    goes deeper into Turchin's ideas, looking closely at how 19th-century Britain and Russia handled their secular cycles far better than others. We then discuss whether the US can do the same.
  • Cycle Review
    is a summary with links to all the above.

    • If you are interested in what's happening to our society and want to get some idea of where it is likely to be going, I can't recommend anything better than the above. Ten years from now, we may look back and wonder how we got through the crisis. It's the getting there that hurts.

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Your Money

Scams

Scammers are getting better. A friend of mine recently got a text from her 'daughter'. The scammers knew how the two of them texted each other, had all sorts of things down perfectly. Right at the end, something seemed not quite right. She asked the person to give a relative's surname. Click. Close but not quite. But what happens when the person on the other end is speaking to you? The first story below shows what is now possible. Read and be warned.

Cash or Card?

  • Using a Credit Card? At These Restaurants It'll Cost You. *
    As inflation and high credit card fees continue to affect a restaurant's bottom line, more owners are tacking on a new charge for using a credit card.
    It's not just America. Buy an airline ticket with a card and you get charged. There are many places in Australia where you pay a fee for using a card.
  • Australians among lowest users of cash in the world, report finds
    I prefer using cash for smaller purchases or when there is a surcharge. Many of the stalls at Darwin's local markets are cash only. But it can be hard. In Woolies or Coles checkouts, there is often a line to use cash machine when card machines have no one there.

Jared Dillian Money

Jared Dillian is an American financial writer who puts out a free newsletter called Jared Dillian Money. Following his advice will keep you out of financial trouble, or help get you out of it if you are already there. Here are a three recent articles I particularly liked.

  • Don't Light Your Money on Fire
    "I know a lot of people who have gone broke because they told themselves, "I can afford the monthly payment."
    Every dollar you spend in interest is a dollar that you are lighting on fire. It's a complete and total waste.
    Yet the average person spends 10%–20% of their income on interest every year. This is a big reason people never get ahead.
  • Why Aren't You Rich
    Money is a choice. We get to choose how much money we have. It's a powerful concept, and once you understand it, you'll see that you get to choose your wealth. It's your responsibility. If you wanted to be rich, you could be. You could figure it out.
    I'm not rich, but I'm not poor either. I could have had a lot more money but that would have meant giving up other things that meant more to me than the extra dollars. However rich or poor you may be is the result of the choices you've made along the way.
  • Establish a Healthy Relationship with Money
    "your relationship with money is important because it affects all your other relationships. If you cheap out on college for your kids, everyone is going to end up in therapy. If you blow cash on six-figure cars when you make five figures, everyone is going to end up in therapy.

Two things to remember. Money can't buy everything. Poverty can't buy anything. There is a middle ground.

Misc

Inflation

Money and Politics

  • How to Profit Like Pelosi ― Get Elected
    this is a podcast which has a Link to a transcript if you'd prefer to read.
    Matt exposes why the average congressperson is many times wealthier than "Joe Six-pack," and how the elected get even richer. He shares the tactics and loopholes used to fund a lifestyle that is corroding American politics and dissolving social cohesion.
    Book link: Filthy Rich Politicians: The Swamp Creatures, Latte Liberals, and Ruling-Class Elites Cashing in on America
  • Only in America? Don't you believe it. In Australia, property perks aren't going away. Politicians have too many.
    Politicians and their property portfolios: how many do they own?
    When compared with wider Australia, the percentage of politicians with at least one investment property (44 per cent) is higher than the 15 per cent of Australians who own an investment dwelling.
    About 44 per cent of federal politicians own at least one investment property, 20 per cent own at least two investment properties and about 8 per cent own at least three investment properties.When compared with wider Australia, the percentage of politicians with at least one investment property (44 per cent) is higher than the 15 per cent of Australians who own an investment dwelling.

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AI ― Artificial Intelligence

If you haven't read the first link in the Your Money do so. It not only shows what is now possible, it could save you thousands of dollars.

Jobs ― Will AI Take Yours?

Deception

Faster, Ever Faster

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Understanding China

We depend on China for many of our imports and depend on them to take many of our exports. Like it or not, the two economies are intertwined. If we don't understand China, we'll always come off second best.

Breaking News

The Chinese Mystery
Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu has disappeared. Some reports say he was meeting with Vietnamese officials when he was escorted away, but according to other reliable reports, he was detained before the meeting and thus had to cancel it. Chinese sources report that he is under investigation for corruption. In addition to leading the Ministry of Defense, Li is one of China's five state councilors, which makes him an extremely important figure outranking other ministers.
.... Xi's enemies may well believe that he sees all and has the power to stop them, but that simply motivates them to be more effective. Xi can't resign or admit failure. So ministers must disappear, and former presidents must be removed from meetings in sight of the world.

Women in China

Chinese Youth ― Videos

Misc

  • China universities waste millions, fail to make real use of research, audit finds in indictment of tech-sufficiency drive
    A review by the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region found that an alarming number of colleges are underproducing, and a professor says it's because China's higher-level research system is flawed
    Worrisome findings seen 'reflecting a nationwide trend' at a time when attaining hi-tech self-sufficiency has never been more important for China
    The 15,000-word audit report briefly appeared two weeks ago on the website of the Audit Office of Guangxi before being removed.
  • China's Economy Might Look Good on Paper, but It Feels Like a Recession **
    Official data will likely show solid growth in the most recent quarter, but many say conditions in world's No. 2 economy are grim
  • Why China Has a Giant Pile of Debt *
    A major lender abroad, China is facing a debt bomb at home: trillions of dollars owed by local governments, their financial affiliates, and real estate developers.
  • A lesson from China's disappearing data: Nobody hides good news **
  • Benchmarking China
    "China's economic miracle began around 1980 following the Cultural Revolution, which was as brutal as any war. In need of reconstruction, China followed the American and Japanese models of relying on exports, first based on price and later on technical sophistication. China's gross domestic product exploded, and it became the second-largest economy in the world. But there was a flaw in thinking of it that way, as its per capita GDP ranked 76th in the world. Because of its vast population, China can be relatively unproductive and still generate amazing numbers. This made China's rise different from those of the U.S. and Japan, where the growth of GDP reflected efficient productivity."
    What next?
  • China's Slowdown Triggers Changes
    Recent policy shifts indicate an acknowledgement of disappointing economic figures.
    Interesting thought on former foreign minister.
  • Rock 'n' Roll According to the Chinese Communist Party *
    A man spends decades working a monotonous factory job. His wife grows increasingly insecure about the future. Their son is withdrawn, seemingly struggling at school. Then a building collapses, and their world comes crashing down. It was a story of disillusionment and hopelessness in the industrial city of Shijiazhuang, and it was one of China's most influential indie rock songs.
    Then a local Communist Party group decided to rewrite it.
    ... Still, as musicians the world over have long known, putting out a song is one thing. Making people actually listen to and resonate with it is another. And so far, on Chinese social media, the reaction to the revised effort has been decidedly unimpressed. "Somehow this version is even more depressing," one of the most popular comments read.

Drugs

A link to a story about how China is supplying the US market with illegal drugs in the last issue was behinc a paywall. This link to a podcast should be free. China's Deadliest Export: Fentanyl topics covered include
  • How fentanyl finds its way from China to the US.
  • The role of Mexico’s drug cartels in the fentanyl trade.
  • The surprising profit margins that fuel this drug trade.
  • The need to counter the influence of China in Latin America.
  • Who has the weaker hand in Latin America, China or the US?
  • Is China trying to gain a foothold in Cuba as leverage against the US?
  • Has the US hit the limit of its ability to handle major geopolitical conflicts?
If you'd prefer to read, there is a link to a transcript just below the video link.

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Education

Is Tertiary Education Worth The Cost?

In America, the answer is now often no. In Australia .... ?
When you look at how much a tradesperson can make in a job that finishes at knock off time, compared with a white collar worker who is on call after hours, you have to wonder. Maybe our politicians have decided that the less educated we are, the easier it will be to get elected.

Make Shakespeare Dirty Again

Make Shakespeare Dirty Again *
It seemed, for a moment, that Shakespeare was being canceled. Last week, school district officials in Hillsborough County, Fla., said that they were preparing high school lessons for the new academic year with some of William Shakespeare's works taught only with excerpts, partly in keeping with Gov. Ron DeSantis's legislation about what students can or can't be exposed to.

Education and Covid: America and Australia

My experience in doing this short section shows that if you are interested in finding out the truth about something, you often have to look at multiple websites.

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WW 40th Anniversary

In late 1983, I put a small ad in the Weekend Australian travel section. In February 1984, before I had registered the name "Willis's Walkabouts", I took my first paying clients into the Top End bush. Those routes are no longer accessible. Even if they were, I'm not sure that I could manage them as the main guide so I'll celebrate with two trips.

  • The first will be a special three week trip, Russell's 40th Anniversary Wet Season Special: 4-25 February 2024 which consists of the things I most want to do myself. The price is $1495 for the whole trip, $995 for sections 1 & 2, or $595 for any one of the three sections. No discounts apply. And no expenses. Transport, food and accommodation will all be extra and I'll pay exactly the same as the rest of the group.
    Until 10 November, I will accept bookings only from people who have walked with me (Russell) before. Next in line will be anyone else who expresses an interest by sending me an email shortly after this newsletter goes out.
    This trip is different. Please do not try and book before reading the trip notes. And note, it would be very hard to read the notes on a mobile phone screen.
  • Kakadu Circle No. 1: 5-26 May
    It has been years since we've been able to offer this trip. At this point, it looks as if it can run. Of all the trips we offer in Kakadu, this is my personal favourite. I'm hoping I'll be able to do it one last time.
    As with the Anniversary Special, Until 10 November, I will accept bookings only from people who have walked with me (Russell) before. Next in line will be anyone else who expresses an interest by sending me an email

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The Referendum

There is a lot of misinformation on both sides. Here are some good links.

  • What is the Indigenous voice to parliament, how would it work, and what happens next?
    Good background.
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander parliamentarians in Australia: a quick guide
    I heard someone make a seemingly outrageous claim about the number of Aboriginal representatives in parliament. It was wrong, but according to the official figures, the percent of federal politicians who are Aboriginal is 1˝ times the percent of Australians who are indigenous.
    For what it's worth, 24.5% of the NT population is indigenous. 24% of our Legislative Assembly are indigenous. Given the increasing problems we have, simple numbers are not the answer.
  • The Uluru Statement from the Heart is one page long, not 26
    The Uluru Statement from the Heart is a one-page document, as confirmed by its authors. Papers released under FOI contain the statement, but also include 25 pages of background information, including minutes of meetings held with Indigenous communities, which are not part of the Uluru Statement from the Heart.
    It was hard finding a link to the plain text of the statement. click below to see it and judge for yourself.
  • Uluru Statement from the Heart
  • Unless you live in the NT or ACT, my vote is worth less than yours.
    State and territory ballots will be counted differently at the Voice referendum ― is that fair?
    It's not a simple question.
    I thought that I could't vote. When we asked the day before this newsletter went out, we wre told no pre-voting, no postal ballots and no chance to vote in absentia in Namibia where we'll be on polling day. A day later, we were told that postal ballots were possible. Someone should have got their act together sooner.
  • The Voice: The Search for Equity Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price
    "The idea that decisions affecting people's lives should be made locally is a good one. But does it need the proposed complex political solution? Could a similar result be achieved by simply advising public servants to consult with the local people whose lives they propose to change before implementing new policy? Why have they not been doing this already? Has the National Indigenous Australians Agency, which has similar aims to The Voice and a staff of over 1000, been ineffective?"
    Better still, would it be better to devolve responsibility to those affected?
    Whatever the outcome of the referendum, I don't think things will improve substantially until we give responsibility to those affected.

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The Lighter Side

Smile

Cartoons & jokes
As we approach the AFL grand final, change the "NBA" in the top right cartoon to "AFL" to give it an Australian slant.

The Animal Kingdom

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News About This Newsletter

Is it worth it? While I enjoy creating these newsletters, it does take a lot of time. Is it worth it? If more people read them, I'd say definitely so, please, if you know someone who might enjoy the newsletter, pass it along and tell them to sign up to the newsletter list if they enjoy it.

Restricted websites. The NY Times allows non-subscribers to look at ten free articles each month. I've got more links than that in this newsletter so I've marked them with a red asterisk (*) so that you can choose which are of most interest to you. Bloomberg allows three free articles. The Washington Post and The Economist both have limits but I'm not sure what the current limits are so I've marked their articles with a double red asterisk (**).

How to Get Past a Paywall to Read an Article for Free
Even if you regularly support journalism by paying, sometimes you need to get around it.

Coming Next Issue
  • Younger generations. They will make the decisions that affect the end of our lives.
  • Not sure what else. It will be a surprise to me as well as you.
  • When? Hopefully, before Christmas.

As always, I welcome a bit of feedback about some of the things in this newsletter and suggestions for the next one.

Sending the newsletter

I'm now using a paid version of MailChimp to send all of the newsletters. I'm not sure what I'll do if the list goes over 2500.

walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au is the contact address on our website. If you would like to continue to receive these newsletters, please include this address in your "friends list" so that it isn't blocked.

Emails sent to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au are currently automatically forwarded to rrwillis at internode.on.net. If you want to send an email to that address, replace the word "at" with the symbol @. I am trying not to put that address any place where it can be harvested by spam bots.

We don't want to add to the mass of email spam. If you don't want our newsletter, please send us an email and let us know. We'll then delete your name from our newsletter list.

Our email address is walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au.

Note. Both MailChimp and the other program we use to send some of these newsletters have an automatic delete at the bottom. Clicking that link will delete you from the mailing list on the server but it will not delete you from our main database. One of the programs will not allow the auto delete to send me an email notifying me that a deletion has been made. If you want to be sure that you are removed from all further mailings, please send an email to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au

If you know someone you think would enjoy this newsletter, please forward it to them. The more people who get it, the more likely it is that I'll be able to run the trips which might interest you.

I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed preparing it.
Russell Willis

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