Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 98, November 2018 — War?
While any kind of war between the US and China is not all that likely, anyone who reads Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? will realise some sort of serious conflict is much more likely than people believe.
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In this issue
- Willis's Walkabouts 2019
- Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?
- The Wet
- Facebook and Google — Continued
- Help! Have You Done One of Our Trips This Year?
- Charity — Does Your Money Go Where You Think It Does?
- Without Limits — WW on TV
- Your Health
- Get Paid For Publicity Photos
- Bushwalking Information
- Emergency Evacuation Insurance
- WW Overseas
- Choice 2018 Shonky Winners
- Photos, Videos & Just For Fun
- News About this Newsletter
Willis's Walkabouts 2019
Charters vs the Trip List
We are already getting charter bookings. As happened this year, charter trips may force us to cancel some of those in our normal program. If there is anything in our 2019 trip list that interests you, the sooner you let us know, the more likely it is that we'll be able to run it.
If you'd like us to run a special trip for a group, the sooner you let us know, the more likely it is that we can run it for you.
Already partly booked
- Definite departure. New Year in Kakadu: 27 December 2018 - 1 January 2019
Same name, new dates, new inclusions, special conditions. See the trip notes for details. - New Trip. Bachsten in the Wet: 27 January - 9 February.
Following our 2018 Bachsten-Charnley trip, this became a dream. We have permission to run it this time and may or may not be able to offer it again. Click the link above for more information, major update 12 September. - Kakadu Light: 10-23 February
If you like what you see on the link above, please make sure to click the link to the detailed trip notes. - Kimberley Coast Explorer: 17 March - 6 April
One of the most spectacular trips we offer. Two sections, either of which cajn be done on its own. - Kakadu Family Walk No.1: 13-19 April
- West Macdonnell Ranges: 9-22 June
Two walks, either of which can be done on its own. - Prince Regent Nature Reserve: 23 June - 14 July
We need only three more bookings to guarantee departure. - Drysdale River No. 2: 30 June - 13 July
We use a float plane to get access to one of the remotest national parks in Australia. - Patagonia: 4 Weeks in December - January
One of our easiest-ever Patagonia trips. This is still an early draft. Those who express an interest early on can help finalise the itinerary.
Why?
Kakadu Circle No. 1: 5-26 May. If Walkabouts founder Russell Willis were told he could only do one more trip in Kakadu, this would be it. None of those who have done it can understand why it isn't more popular than the shorter Kakadu Circles 2 & 3. We can't either. It is longer in time but not in distance. It is run at a slower pace allowing you more time to explore or relax and enjoy your surroundings.
We are now considering changing the format of our trip notes and would appreciate any comments as to which form you prefer and why.
Kakadu Circle No. 1: Old Format
Kakadu Circle No. 1: New Format
Do You Use Facebook Regularly?
If so, you might want to set it to notify you when Cassie or I put up a new post on our Facebook page. We've been told that it's one of the best ways to attract new clients so we'll be posting on a more regular basis. If you'd like to help, the best possible thing you can do for us is post a comment or share the post.
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?
Lessons from Thucydides
This pamphlet by David Kotok draws on both ancient and modern history for lessons on debt, money, geopolitics and financial markets. While longer than most of the links I put in this newsletter, it has a lot of food for thought. It's well worth the time it takes to read it. Key Points:
- Historian Graham Allison coined 'Thucydides Trap' to describe how rising world powers challenge incumbents due to perceptions and information asymmetry.
- Allison listed 16 'T-Trap' events in the last 500 years, twelve of which ended in war.
- The same dynamic is now arising between the US and China. If China doesn't moderate its ambitions or the US agree to share power, conflict will likely continue and intensify.
- Three prongs draw leaders into the T-Trap: fear, interests and honour.
- Money is both a tool of war and way to avert war, through trade, lending and monetary policy.
- The T-Trap doesn't always occur between governments. President Trump's squabbles with Amazon and Jeffrey Bezos have similar characteristics.
- Bottom Line: Studying the T-Trap can be discouraging because it shows humanity making the same mistakes over and over again. Yet the ancient Greeks eventually learned how trade and dispute resolution forums could preserve peace and prosperity. Today's world can do the same.
The article refers to a book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? I recently read it and happily recommend it. There are many things which could go wrong and start at least a limited war, far more than most people realise. If nothing does start a war, I came away convinced that china will 'win' (whatever that means) simply because it takes a long-term view that our election cycle doesn't permit.
More to Make You Think
- China's Sea Control Is a Done Deal, 'Short of War With the U.S.' * "A U.S. military flight over the South China Sea brings harsh Chinese challenges in officially international space. Officers say a new era of risk is here."
- The risks of a new Cold War between the US and China are real: here's why
"Cold War 2.0 may not be fanciful: The US and China are plainly entering a period of significant geopolitical rivalry, and each has ambitions that are mutually incompatible."
Like it or not, if there is a conflict between the US and china, Australia will have no choice but to be involved in some fashion.
The Wet
With the Met Bureau predicting above average rainfall between now and the end of January, I thought it would be worthwhile to go through some of the reasons you might want to consider a wet season trip.
- Wildflowers are at their best.
- Waterfalls are at their most spectacular.
- No tourist crowds anywhere.
Yes, it will be hot but not as hot as you might think. The average maximum temperature in Jabiru is lower in January through March than it is in April or August through December.
Yes it will almost certainly rain, but not as much as you might think. The same Met Bureau chart that shows the temperatures shows that on average it rains only about two days in three.
If you've ever thought about coming north for a bushwalk, you owe it to yourself to read our Wet Season web page. This links to two additional pages giving you all the information you could possibly want about walking in the Wet. Note. These pages are best viewed on a large screen, not on a mobile.
Still Think It's Too Hard?
Some of the easiest trips we offer are wet season trips.
- Sections 1 & 2 of the Green Kimberley: 8-16 January include no overnight pack carries.
- Kakadu Light: 10-23 February has only one or two short overnight walks.
If you like what you see on the link above, please make sure to click the link to the detailed trip notes. - Section 1 of Kakadu Highlights No. 2: 17-22 February doesn't include any overnight walks.
Good News — Bad News
Good News Every wet season trip in our program remains available. As shown in the first section of this newsletter, four of them already have bookings. Better still, Our advance purchase or other discounts remain available on all of them.
Bad News. We can't run a trip unless we have bookings well in advance. Starting a week from the date we post this newsletter, we'll have to start canceling the trips which don't already have bookings.
Facebook and Google — Continued
Amazon
Before I return to Facebook and Google for the discussion begun in the last newsletter, I thought I'd begin with a company which is even bigger — Amazon. This could be the beginning of a truly major change, a change which could affect companies like Facebook and Google as well.
Amazon's Antitrust Antagonist Has a Breakthrough Idea *
"With a single scholarly article, Lina Khan, 29, has reframed decades of monopoly law." It's a long article but well worth reading.
"regulating parts of the company like a utility 'could make sense.' She also said it 'could make sense' to treat Amazon's e-commerce operation like a bridge, highway, port, power grid or telephone network — all of which are required to allow access to their infrastructure on a nondiscriminatory basis."
Donald Trump doesn't like Amazon. American Democrats distrust big business. Change could be coming sooner than you might think.
Here's another one which affects them all. India Pushes Back Against Tech 'Colonization' by Internet Giants *
"With Facebook, Google and Amazon dominating India's internet, lawmakers have declared their intention to impose tough new rules on the tech industry."
- Speech on Twitter and Facebook should not be treated like a collective good that should be subject to political control. *
"The (US) Justice Department proposed talks with state attorneys general about the practices of large tech platforms."
"Given the unanticipated reach and influence of these companies, this view is perhaps understandable. But it is mistaken and even dangerous, because at its core it is a view that speech — the primary use for these platforms — is not an individual right, but a collective good that should be subject to political control." - Can Facebook, or Anybody, Solve the Internet's Misinformation Problem? *
"Facebook showed it was proactive against online threats when it revealed new global influence campaigns this week. But being proactive is far from finding a solution." - How FireEye Helped Facebook Spot a Disinformation Campaign *
"The cybersecurity company has shifted its attention to detecting disinformation and uncovering social media campaigns intended to influence politics." - Facebook Identifies New Influence Operations Spanning Globe *
"The social network removed hundreds of fake accounts and pages targeting people in different countries and regions that originated in Iran and Russia." - Can You Spot the Deceptive Facebook Post? *
"Facebook has been plagued with disinformation posts placed by foreign operatives. Can you tell the difference between a real post and one designed to fool you?"
It's interactive. I couldn't pick them all. Can you do better? - Facebook Was Hacked. 3 Things You Should Do After the Breach. *
"The social networking giant said attackers had exploited a weakness that enabled them to hijack the accounts of nearly 50 million users. Here are some tips for securing your account." - Facebook Hack Puts Thousands of Other Sites at Risk *
"Ten years ago, the social network introduced a password system that connected it to a broad swath of the internet. Now we are seeing the downside." - Video-Chat Screen With a Camera That Follows You *
"At a time when trust in its services is eroding, the social network introduced Portal and Portal Plus, its first major effort to build consumer hardware from scratch."
One more step closer to the world portrayed in The Circle by Dave Eggers. If you haven't read it, I highly recommend it as I think this is the way our society is moving.
- Here's the Conversation We Really Need to Have About Bias at Google *
"President Trump's charges that Google shows anti-conservative search bias is wrong. But Google may well be biased against minorities and others who lack real-world power.
Well worth the read; makes you think about what you don't find when you search for something. - Google Tried to Change China. China May End Up Changing Google *
"Google once held itself up as proudly nonconformist. A decision to abide by Chinese censors would mark a new era for the company — one of conventionality." - Google's Secret Pact With the Chinese Government
How Google profits from censorship... potent cocktail for killing free society... Declaration of Digital Rights...
The article gives the same info as the previous one but suggests that something similar is happening in the US. I'm not sure what 'deplatforming' means but Google did let me find the link — if I used some very specific terms. -
What Does Google Know About You?
Says some of what the articles in Newsletter 97 said but says it with graphics. - The Google Phishing Attack, Explained
Things like this are why I don't entirely trust the cloud, why I worry about gmail even thought I use it to some extent. - Google Plus Will Be Shut Down After User Information Was Exposed *
"Google did not notify authorities of the vulnerabilities in Google Plus, which exposed the data of up to 500,000 users."
Help! Have You Done One of Our Trips This Year?
We urgently need more feedback. If we don't know what we are doing right and what we could be doing better, we can't improve. With a number of new trips and trips that hadn't run for years, 2018 is especially important.
Everyone who did a 2018 trip should have received a link to an online questionnaire. If you didn't fill it in before, we'd very much appreciate it if you'd do it now. If you lost the link, please send us an email naming your trip and we'll send it again.
Charity — Does Your Money Go Where You Think It Does?
Recently The Conversation ran a piece called We need to know more about charities to be sure they are helping their cause, not themselves.
It refers to research "on financial disclosures looked at 342 nonprofit organisations. They covered four areas: social services, culture and recreation, education and research, and environment. Just 55 (16%) made their annual reports and financial statements public. Of those, 52 had annual revenues of at least $A1 million. Just three charities earning less than A$1 million made their financial statements voluntarily public.
There is a lot more. After reading the article, I think I'll restrict my donations to organisations which do publish financial statements.
A Different View on Charitable Donations
Karmically Speaking gives an interesting take on how to maximise your impact on causes you care about.
Without Limits — WW on TV
Early this year, I was contacted by Katie Brimblecombe, the producer of a BBC documentary called Without Limits. She had decided on the Kimberley as a location and needed some info about possible walks. I provided as much info as I could but they wanted to come out on a reconnaissance trip during our peak season so none of our current guides were available. Fortunately, former guide Marj King was.
The result was Without Limits, two one hour episodes broadcast on the ABC in late October. "To celebrate the Invictus Games Sydney 2018, a team of Australian and British wounded and injured veterans take on an epic journey through Australia's remote Kimberley region."
The photography is magnificent and gives you a good feel for the Kimberley environment in July. The walk that they do at the end of episode one is one we do on our Gibb Road Gorges trip in June. The trek they do in Purnululu (Bungle Bungles) near the end of episode two is a small part of what we do on all our Bungles trips.
Without Limits is available on iView until late December. If you slow it down for the credits at the end, you'll see Marj King up near the top of the 'With Thanks' list.
Your Health
Nature is Good for Your Health
This Is Your Brain on Nature
"In 2009 a team of Dutch researchers found a lower incidence of 15 diseases — including depression, anxiety, heart disease, diabetes, asthma, and migraines — in people who lived within about a half mile of green space. And in 2015 an international team overlaid health questionnaire responses from more than 31,000 Toronto residents onto a map of the city, block by block. Those living on blocks with more trees showed a boost in heart and metabolic health equivalent to what one would experience from a $20,000 gain in income. Lower mortality and fewer stress hormones circulating in the blood have also been connected to living close to green space."
In America, "One recent Nature Conservancy poll found that only about 10 percent of American teens spend time outside every day. According to research by the Harvard School of Public Health, American adults spend less time outdoors than they do inside vehicles — less than 5 percent of their day."
"A few years ago, for example, in an experiment similar to Bratman's, Stephen Kaplan and his colleagues found that a 50-minute walk in an arboretum improved executive attention skills, such as short-term memory, while walking along a city street did not. 'Imagine a therapy that had no known side effects, was readily available, and could improve your cognitive functioning at zero cost,' the researchers wrote in their paper. It exists, they continued, and it's called 'interacting with nature.'"
Holidays are good for you
Holidays could help you live longer
According to the 40 year study mentioned in the short article above, "those who took less than three weeks off each year were 37 per cent more likely to die young over the next 30 years."
Lift Weights, Get Smart
"research shows that older people respond to strength training almost as well as young people. This is important because strength — especially leg strength — correlates with the neurological health of the brain as well as lifespans."
"Neurogenesis (the growth of new nerve cells and connections in the entire body) is impaired when animals aren't engaged in load-bearing exercise."
Your Biome
We're finding out more almost daily.
- Is Your Microbiome Making You Sick?
"Our gut bacteria can play a role in everything from sleep to IBS and how we deal with stress, and we are finally working out how to use them to improve our health" - The surprising foods that are messing with your gut
"We're finally starting to understand which foods are causing tummy troubles for so many, and the culprits challenge everything we thought we knew about healthy eating." - A huge number of mystery microbes are living on your skin.
They may be no more closely related to the bacteria in your gut than you are. We now know that they are there. We have little idea what they do. - Meet the trillions of viruses that make up your virome
"Just because you don't have the flu doesn't mean that your aren't teeming with viruses inside and out. But what are all these viruses doing, if they aren't making you sick?"
Misc
- New colour change wristbands help you balance too much sun vs not enough — no matter your skin tone
It's not yet on the market but should be a big help when it does get there. Hard to believe but vitamin D deficiency is becoming an increasing problem in Australia.
Get Paid For Publicity Photos
When the Kakadu National Park bushwalking page was being prepared, we didn't have an appropriate photo so we let it slide — and then forgot about it. We're still not listed, something we need to fix sooner rather than later. We have, however, not yet found an appropriate photo. Maybe you can help.
The main photo needs to be in a panoramic format, 1920 x 576 pixels. It needs a square section which can be cropped out. The crop needs to be 170 x 170 — which may or may not be the dimensions of that part in the original. In addition to the main photo, we can have two other panorama 1920 x 576 panorama pics.
If you have a photo or photos you think might work, please send us a copy. If we use it as the main photo, we'll give you an extra $200 discount on any trip you book worth more than $2000 (10% if worth less than $2000). If we use it as one of the other two, you'll get a $100 discount. The main photo needs to show people wearing packs with some great Kakadu scenery in the background.
There's more. We will soon begin the process of completely renewing the website. If you have a photo (or video) which you think would be suitable, please pass it along. Similar discounts will be given to anyone who provides a photo we use.
Facebook Video. We need short video clips which we can use on Facebook and, when we get a page, on Instagram. If you have something you think tells our story well, please send it along.
Bushwalking Information
Gear
- New Nikwax range will double the life of your tent
If it works as advertised, it could save you a lot of money. - Gas Canisters
- DIY — How to refill camping Coleman gas canisters
It should work for any brand. Bunnings sells butane gas, more than enough for a small canister, for about half the price of buying a new one. - Recycling Isopro canisters
- Bushwalking Forum on the topic
Food
How to Make Your Own Granola Bars
General Travel Tips
Five Underrated Things to Pack for Every Trip *
Skip the fancy travel gadgets. Here are five simple things that will save you stress, money and hassle so you just enjoy your much-deserved getaway.Parks
NSW
Save the Kosciuszko National Park from wild horses and other feral animals
This site is full of information. if nothing is done, we'll face a situation similar to what happened in the Top End in the late 1970s. After several good wet seasons, we had a few bad ones. Buffalo had bred up in the good times and starved in their thousands. It wasn't pretty.Victoria
Great Ocean Road Threatened?
Maybe. Read the article to find out more.We can deal with deer.
I didn't have any idea just how bad it had become until I read this article from the VNPA.WA
Report shows forests worth more standing
Environment groups have renewed their call for protection of South West native forests to generate carbon credits and protect wildlife — a move which independent research suggests would be more profitable than the current native forest logging industry.
For more on WA, go to the Conservation Council of WA homepage. - DIY — How to refill camping Coleman gas canisters
Emergency Evacuation Insurance
This one is so important, I thought it needed a section of its own.
No domestic travel policy sold in Australia can legally cover anything that could be covered by medical and/or ambulance insurance. This leaves a grey area where something like a sprained ankle which would not require medical attention in town could require one out bush. Until now I've never had a definitive answer.
Join the Austrian Alpine club and get free rescue insurance included, up to euro 25,000. No age, geographical limit, and long trip cover all at a very modest cost. If you are in your 60's & 70's if you can get any sort of commercial cover for some of these activities it is ridiculously expensive. Combine it with a normal travel policy and you are covered for just about everything, backcountry and off-piste skiing, mountain biking, rafting and well as walking.
Membership is for a calendar year so if you're interested, I'd recommend waiting until 1 January.
WW Overseas
2019 just might be a new record for our overseas trips.
- Scandinavian Winter: February-March
Fully booked. If it goes as well as we think, we'll offer it again. - New Caledonia: 2 or 3 weeks in September-October
- Madagascar: 4 weeks in September
Maximum of only nine plus our guide.
Video. Madagascar - Part 1 — highlights from the first three days of our trip.
Video. Madagascar - Part 2 — 5 day trek in Isalo National Park
The notes refer to our 2018 trip. 2019 will be much the same. - South Africa and Namibia: 5-6 Weeks in August-September
Wildflowers, wild animals and rock art. We already have bookings on this special trip. - Northeast South Africa: Kruger & More: 4 Weeks in October-November
This is very much a first draft. Those who express an interest early on can help finalise the itinerary. - Patagonia: 4 Weeks in December-January
We already have bookings on one of our easiest-ever Patagonia trips. This is still an early draft. Those who express an interest early on can help finalise the itinerary.
We also hope to offer
• Vanuatu, September, for the first time in several years.
• Japan, two two week trips beginning in late September.
If you think you might be interested in Vanuatu or Japan please send us an email, let us know which interests you and we'll send information when it's ready.
Choice 2018 Shonky Winners
Choice 2018 Shonky Winners
CHOICE's annual awards name and shame the shonkiest products and companies taking advantage of Australian consumer.
Photos, Videos & Just for Fun
Video
A few for fun.
- New version of the periodic table song
- The original Tom Lehrer version live in concert
- Animated version of the original
- We live in a small world. Here is something describing the first time anyone could actually see this for themselves.
A First Glimpse of Our Magnificent Earth, Seen From the Moon *
"The first people to view our planet from the moon were transformed by the experience. In this film, they tell their story."
The film runs for half an hour, the longest video I've ever included here. I think it's worth the time.
One to show just how fast we've become.
Formula 1 Pit Stops 1950 & Today
This 2 min video shows how we live in a very different world today
One to highlight an organisation I support.
NaDEET - Environmental education in Namibia
They do an amazing job with few resources. We did a walking tour with Tok Tokkie Trails and visited their education centre on one of our tours. I'm offering a return trip next August-September.
Photos
If I had more, I'd include more. If you have a link to some photos or videos that you think other readers of this newsletter might like, please let me know.
Points to Ponder
I couldn't resist. With the rise of self-driving vehicles, it's only a matter of time before we get a country song where a guy's truck leaves him too.
News About This Newsletter
Restricted websites. The NY Times allows non-subscribers to look at ten free articles each month. I've got more links than that in this newsletter so I've marked them with a red asterisk (*) so that you can choose which are of most interest to you. The Washington Post and The Economist both have limits but I'm not sure what the current limits is so I've marked Washington Post and Economist articles with a double red asterisk (**).
Next Newsletter — December! It's our quiet season so I've got time to work on it. And to work on some changes to next year's program. Watch for some major updates.
As always, I've already got a few things ready. Hopefully, I can get a bit of feedback about some of the things in this newsletter to include in the next one. As I've often said, Suggestions welcome.
Sending the newsletter
While I now send most of the newsletters using MailChimp, I still send about 200 newsletters using a program which is hosted on the same server that hosts our website. (MailChimp Free only allows 2000. The commercial version costs too much for an extra 200 people.) In both cases, the newsletters are sent from walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au. This is the contact address on our website. If you would like to continue to receive these newsletters, please include this address in your "friends list" so that it isn't blocked.
For some reason, some servers block the newsletters no matter what you try and do. I send these in small groups from my normal email. It's not a simple problem. If anyone thinks they might have an idea how to overcome the problem, I'd love to hear from you.
Emails sent to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au are currently automatically forwarded to rrwillis at internode.on.net. If you want to send an email to that address, replace the word "at" with the symbol @. I am trying not to put that address any place where it can be harvested by spam bots.
We don't want to add to the mass of email spam. If you don't want our newsletter, please send us an email and let us know. We'll then delete your name from our newsletter list.
Our email address is walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au.
Note. Both MailChimp and the other program we use to send some of these newsletters have an automatic delete at the bottom. Clicking that link will delete you from the mailing list on the server but it will not delete you from our main database. One of the programs will not allow the auto delete to send me an email notifying me that a deletion has been made. If you want to be sure that you are removed from all further mailings, please send an email to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au
If you know someone you think would enjoy this newsletter, please forward it to them. The more people who get it, the more likely it is that I'll be able to run the trips which might interest you.
Best wishes to all.
I hope you enjoy reading the newsletter as much as I enjoyed writing it.
Russell Willis