Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 78, May 2015 — The Lucky Country?

The Lucky Country?

I subscribe to a bi-weekly newsletter called Things that make you go hmmmm. The issue of 15 March was titled "The Lucky Country". When I read it, I thought that this was something that all Australians should think about. I asked for and was given permission to include some of that newsletter in this one.

"In 1964, Donald Horne bemoaned the fact that Australia was a 'Lucky Country' which had reached its place in the world by relying on gifts bestowed upon it by others rather than any great skill on the part of its people or, particularly, its leaders and that events were often likely to take those leaders by surprise."

"That hasn't been a problem for almost 25 years now — as Lefty Gomez famously said, it's better to be lucky than good — BUT, at this point in time, as China's need for what lies beneath her soil cools sharply, the focus is switching from the seemingly endless bounty offered by 'nature's gifts' to the reality of a debt expansion driven by a feeling that Australia's luck would last forever."

The first five pages are a good, somewhat humourous introduction to the situation. Worth reading for anyone. I've summarised the next 17 pages in a three page document without the graphs & charts. If you want to understand some of the economic problems facing this country, it's well worth reading.

The links in my excerpt don't work. One of those links was to the Australian Museum page describing Drop bears. Whatever problems we may have, when an institution like the Australian Museum can put up a page like this, I know that something is still going right in this country.

Property Bubble

The author of the article above suggests that Australia has a property bubble. He's not the only one.

Australia is in one of the worst housing bubbles we have ever seen. "From 1996 to 2014, housing prices and mortgage debt significantly outpaced economic fundamentals like inflation, rents, incomes and GDP. Yet, our central bankers are more concerned about whether we will pay less tomorrow for a can of soda than new home buyers in Sydney borrowing $50,000 more than last year to buy a home. Where is the logic in that?"

Still don't believe we have a property bubble? These 10 French castles are cheaper than Sydney units. Where's the sense in that.

At least partly because of housing prices, Australia is now one of the most expensive countries in the world. Cost of living around the world compares the cost of living in different countries. In the table at the bottom which lists the 15 most expensive countries, Australia is 6^th. (New Zealand is 7^th). That's not a good place to be.

Do you remember what inflation was like back in the 1970's? Almost every government in the developed world is trying to create it. At some point they may succeed a bit too well. Dr Pippa Malmgren, a former American presidential adviser is someone who saw the last financial crisis coming. "I watched so many people suffer from the last financial crisis, and I saw many signals that got me to sell my house and move my family into rental accommodation during 2007, and I thought, 'Why doesn't everybody else do this?'"

That quote is from an interview, Pippa Malmgren: 'biflation' is coming, and it's going to hurt. I found it well worth the read. It left me thinking that it might make sense to sell my house, move into a shed somewhere down the track and wait.

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The Kakadu Walking Strategy & Trips

Walking Strategy

Many thanks to all those who put in a submission. I don't know how many there were but I do know that there were far more than they got for the draft plan of management. The Walking Strategy Committee was supposed to have met to discuss the submissions on 21 April but that meeting had to be cancelled at the last minute. I don't think the walking strategy will be finalised before a meeting. I just hope that I'll be able to attend if and when it is held.

To the best of my knowledge, there will be no change to access until the walking strategy is finalised.

Kakadu Trips

We only have four trips beginning before 26 July which are still available. The three below have been in our program since the beginning.

• Kakadu Super Circle No. 2: 7-28 June
  Special offer. We had to change the original itinerary and combine it with Kakadu Circle No. 2. The new price of $2795 for the full trip is an $800 discount on the original. Section 1 is now longer but costs $400 less ($1795). Sec 2 is shorter but costs $600 less ($1595). None of our normal discounts apply to the new prices.
  Super Special offer. Quote this newsletter, and I'll give you an additional $200 off the price of the full trip or section one on its own.
• Jim Jim to Twin: 30 June - 7 July
  Only two places left.
• Kakadu Circle No. 3: 13-28 July
  Two sections, either of which can be done on its own. The 10% advance purchase discount is still available until 13 May.
  Special offer. Quote this newsletter and, in addition to our normal discounts, I'll give you an extra $50 off either section of $100 of the full trip.

Something new — the first of the $300 specials originally advertised in my December Newsletter.

• Kakadu Easy No. 1: 16-21 June
  Read the notes carefully. There are a number of differences when compared to our normal trips.
  Besides that, we can't yet be 100% sure we will be able to offer the trip on the dates listed.
  Space is limited. If you are potentially interested in this, please send us an email as soon as possible.
• Kakadu Special: 4-9 August
  This is a special trip created at the request of a family coming from overseas. As with all our family walks, this trip is designed to run at a slower pace than our other trips to allow families with children to enjoy the Kakadu bush.
  That makes it equally good for adults who like both children and a relatively easy paced walk.
  None of our normal discounts apply at this price.

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Your Health

Exercise

You've got to sweat if you want to live longer. "Hot, sweaty exercise is the key to living longer, according to a massive study of Australians' exercise habits that could change health advice the world over."

Relationships

People in healthy relationships tend to live longer than those who are not. Science Says Lasting Relationships Come Down To 2 Basic Traits. Pretty simple, can you guess what they are? Have a read and see how you rate.

Sweet Things

New Scientist had an article Artificial sweeteners linked to glucose intolerance. It begins, "Aspartame, saccharin and sucralose made mice glucose intolerant — a risk for diabetes — probably by altering their gut flora. Is it happening in humans too?" Artificial sweeteners may be contributing to the rise in diabetes and obesity. Well worth a read.

Chocolate's dark secrets. The chocolate you eat would be inedible if it weren't for a variety of bacteria.

Chemicals and Us

Catalyst recently ran a special called Our Chemical Lives. "Thousands of chemicals are used in everyday products — in our water, our food and in the air we breathe. It's the chemical soup of modern life and it's virtually impossible to escape them. In this special edition of Catalyst, Dr Maryanne Demasi investigates the safety of these chemicals, and compares the level of chemicals in her own body with clean living convert and media personality Sarah Wilson. Is there adequate regulation and testing, or are we in the midst of an uncontrolled, human experiment?"

The link above includes a transcript as well as a link to the video of the program. I'm not sure how long it will be available. If you want more information, there are some good links near the bottom of the page.

New Scientist ran an article on similar vein back in late November. Toxic shockers: Key chemicals to look out for. "From BPA to burnt toast, pretty much everything in the modern world comes with a hidden cocktail of chemical extras. Get the facts on what to worry about."

Gaining Weight

New Scientist had an article Are some people doomed to be fat? which goes into some of the reasons why some people put weight on more easily than others.

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CSIRO Kakadu Survey

The CSIRO is surveying visitors to Kakadu National Park. They aim to get a better understanding of visitor perceptions towards climate change and preferences for protecting characteristic features of Kakadu National Park.

For the survey to be meaningful, it is important for them to get as many responses as possible. When I did the survey, it took me about ten minutes. If you have ever visited Kakadu, please log on and do the survey.

CSIRO Kakadu Survey

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Understanding American Politics

It's difficult for an outsider to understand American politics. Even as someone who grew up in America, I find it difficult to comprehend what's happened to a system that used to work reasonably well.

The Paradox of America's Electoral Reform explains how a well intentioned reform produced the dysfunctional system that exists in the US today.

Anyone who wants to understand America really ought to read this.

The American Empire

To some extent, Americans don't understand themselves. Whether most Americans recognise it or not, there is an American Empire. Coming to Terms With the American Empire is another thoughtful article from Stratfor.

"'Empire' is a dirty word. Considering the behaviour of many empires, that is not unreasonable. But empire is also simply a description of a condition, many times unplanned and rarely intended. It is a condition that arises from a massive imbalance of power."

And now a quote which everyone who deals with America should take to heart. "The British saying is that it has no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests. That old cliche is, like most cliches, true. The United States is in the process of learning that lesson. In many ways the United States was more charming when it had clearly identified friends and enemies. But that is a luxury that empires cannot afford."

The full article (link above) is well worth a read.

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China and the West

The Australian economy depends to a large extent on China. That makes trying to understand China important if you want to know where we are heading.

The 100 year marathon gives a very different take to the relationship between China and the West. "We believed that American aid to a fragile China whose leaders thought like us would help China become a democratic and peaceful power without ambitions of regional or even global dominance. Every one of the assumptions behind that belief was wrong — dangerously so."

Stratfor offers a somewhat different take on what they call China's Fragile Evolution. "Major economic overhauls are messy affairs, and China has decades of dead wood to trim from its economy due to the lingering effects of Mao's intentional drive to ensure massive industrial redundancy, as well as to mismanagement and frequent unprofitability among state companies."

There is a lot more in the Stratfor article. If you want to understand what's happening with Australia's largest trading partner, articles like the two above are well worth reading.

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News About This Newsletter

Contents

Before I finish one newsletter, I'm already working on the next. I often find that I've got too many interesting things for a single newsletter. I'm also always looking for other interesting items I can add. I'm particularly interested in environmental issues, especially those which might affect bushwalking and in the technology which is shaping our lives. As I said in the last newsletter, Suggestions welcome.

Sending the newsletter

While I now send most of the newsletters using MailChimp, I still send about 200 newsletters using a program which is hosted on the same server that hosts our website. In both cases, the newsletters are sent from walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au. This is the contact address on our website. If you would like to continue to receive these newsletters, please include this address in your "friends list" so that it isn't blocked.

For some reason, some servers block the newsletters no matter what you try and do. I send these in small groups from my normal email. It's not a simple problem. If anyone thinks they might have an idea how to overcome the problem, I'd love to hear from you.

Emails sent to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au are currently automatically forwarded to rrwillis at internode.on.net. If you want to send an email to that address, replace the word "at" with the symbol @. I am trying not to put that address any place where it can be harvested by spam bots.

We don't want to add to the mass of email spam. If you don't want our newsletter, please send us an email and let us know. We'll then delete your name from our newsletter list.

Our email address is walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au.

Note. Both MailChimp and the other program we use to send some of these newsletters have an automatic delete at the bottom. Clicking that link will delete you from the mailing list on the server but it will not delete you from our main database. One of the programs will not allow the auto delete to send me an email notifying me that a deletion has been made. If you want to be sure that you are removed from all further mailings, please send an email to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au

If you know someone you think would enjoy this newsletter, please forward it to them. The more people who get it, the more likely it is that I'll be able to run the trips which might interest you.

Best wishes to all.
Russell Willis

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