Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 116, December 2021 — Another Covid Christmas

America ― Trump Is Back!

No More Mr. Nice Guy: Trump is Back

• he has created a new media platform with the launch of the Trump Media and Technology Group via a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), which recently raised nearly $300 million. This windfall political fundraise represents the largest and fastest of its kind in American history.
• As he has done in the past, Trump is leaning on technology to propel him back to the White House. It looks possible that he is gearing up to create his own news network "TNN ― Trump News Network", allowing him to compete with Fox News and CNN.
• Lots more. Well worth a read. Mentions someone who MIGHT be able to stop the comeback, but no one can stop it without almost tearing the country apart.

A Longer View

The election and where we stand is an article by George Friedman who wrote a book, The Storm Before the Calm, about the social, political and economic instability that will dominate America in the 2020s. "This is happening and will happen in phases. The first phase was Donald Trump running for the presidency. The second phase began with the impeachment of Trump and matured with his election defeat. This past Tuesday marked the opening of the third phase: a series of elections that raised questions about whether the Biden administration could function, and whether the social principles of the progressives would be blocked and the Democratic Party caught in permanent gridlock." Here are a few quotes.

• "We are now in the third act, and historical precedent is that there will be about two additional phases after Biden leaves. Who takes over matters little. The next president will be trapped by the social reality he faces.
• "At the same time as the next act emerges socially and politically, I forecast a profound crisis and change in the way the federal government works."
• "government has become so complex that citizens have lost democratic control of the government. Their participation is seen as a disruption of expert-based decisions."
• "experts know very limited areas superbly, and their limited view shapes their worldview. There are various areas of government, each with its own experts, each indifferent to what the others or nongovernmental experts said. The federal government, run by experts, has become self-enclosed and at the same time fragmented."
• With Covid, "the singular focus of the medical bureaucracy caused it to ignore non-medical consequences."

Personal note. I've read The Storm Before the Calm and found it well worth while. I subscribe to Geopolitical Futures and, while I read only a small portion of their articles, those that I do make the subscription worth while.

Making Sense of America

A short collection of articles I found interesting.

• The Biggest Threat to America Is America Itself *
  "Greeks have higher high school graduation rates. Chileans live longer. Fifteen-year-olds in Russia, Poland, Latvia and many other countries are better at math than their American counterparts ― perhaps a metric for where nations will stand in a generation or two. As for reading, one-fifth of American 15-year-olds can't read at the level expected of a 10-year-old. How are those millions of Americans going to compete in a globalized economy?"
  "We Americans repeat the mantra that "we're No. 1" even though the latest Social Progress Index, a measure of health, safety and well-being around the world, ranked the United States No. 28. Even worse, the United States was one of only three countries, out of 163, that went backward in well-being over the last decade." NZ comes in at #4, Australia at #8.
• Why Public Health Faces a Crisis Across the U.S. *
  An examination of hundreds of health departments around the country shows that the nation may be less prepared for the next pandemic than it was for the current one.
  Scary stuff. There WILL be another pandemic. If it happens to come soon, the US could collapse. Australia is somewhat better prepared but no where near as prepared as we should be.
• How Maps Reshape American Politics *
  We answer your most pressing questions about redistricting and gerrymandering.
  Democracy hasn't got a chance when faced with something like this.
• How a Cure for Gerrymandering Left U.S. Politics Ailing in New Ways *
  Independent commissions to oversee the redrawing of electoral maps were thought to be the solution to an age-old problem. Instead, they have become bogged down in political trench warfare.
• America Needs to Break Up Its Biggest States *
  The argument makes a lot of sense to me. Might even make sense in Australia. North Qld has more people than Tasmania. Not sure how much they have in common with Brisbane and the Gold Coast.
• I'm With Condoleezza Rice About White Guilt *
  When asked about the critical race theory debate, she said, "One of the worries that I have about the way that we're talking about race' sometimes these days is that "somehow white people now have to feel guilty for everything that happened in the past." She added, "I don't think that's very productive." Of course, as she and we know, there's more to the critical race theory debate than that. But about the strain of educational philosophy that looks to raise students' awareness of racial injustice, she said that for Black kids to be empowered, "I don't have to make white kids feel bad for being white."
• Here's a Fact: We're Routinely Asked to Use Leftist Fictions *
  This was written by a black man so it has more appeal than if it had come from a white.
• Colleges, Conservatives and the Kakistocracy *
  Universities with traditionally progressive ideals can welcome conservative views, and still reject authoritarianism and hate
• Can Liberals Survive Progressivism? *
  "Nowhere are dysfunctions more concentrated than in the very places that were supposed to have become beacons of progressive sunshine. And nowhere are the reasons more obvious, too."
  "If you permit petty vices and crimes to flourish, greater ones will usually follow. If you refuse to police quality-of-life infractions like public drug use or aggressive panhandling, the quality of life will decline. If you increase the incentives for bad behavior, and reduce the ones for good, you will inevitably achieve catastrophic results."

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John Storey ― R.I.P.

After a long battle with Motor Neurone Disease, another one of our former guides is gone. All our guides are special, but John leaves a legacy few of us can hope to match.

When Willis's Walkabouts was still fairly new, I was looking for more information about bushwalking in the East Kimberley and was introduced to John as the person who knew more about bushwalking there than anyone else. We got along well and he gave me some tips which are still included in some of the walks we do today. In 1998, he came on a three week trip as an assistant guide, the beginning of the six years he was a guide for WW. John gave a lot and got a lot out of the trips he led, but by far the best thing he got was meeting his wife Ann. Without her constant support he wouldn't have survived as long as he did.

John was passionate about what he considered to be excessive burning in the Kimberley. His input helped me in my own quest to get so-called 'controlled burns' cut back. (See Burning Issues in my Newsletter 114 for more info on fires. Like me, but unlike most of those who do the burning, John walked the country and saw the gradual deterioration over the course of many years. He wrote countless letters, citing bits of the law which said that some of the burning was illegal. Sadly, there are too many places where the law continues to be ignored and much of the land continues to be burnt too hot and too often. The land will miss him.

Frank & Micky Whitehouse who were on that first trip John and I did together, sent me a nice little video of John reciting one of his poems. I hope you enjoy it. The Backpacker Blues.

He was an amazing man: bushwalker, gyrocopter pilot, scuba diver, friend to many, helpful wherever he could be helpful. He was passionate about helping others. With that in mind if you would like to honour his memory, please consider donating to MND WA. This link will take you directly to John's donation page.

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Risk Aversion and Our Changing Society

Risk Aversion

The problem. "There is a lack of personal responsibility everywhere, not just among managers. Our entire society has forgotten how to take responsibility. We have forgotten that life consists of setbacks and that you have to have safety margins for difficult times. We live in a spoiled society where people think they are entitled to a wonderful life. Well, this right does not exist in reality." Felix Zulauf

Risk aversion is a topic which has made it into this newsletter on a number of occasions. When I read, Nothing Bad Can Happen in a financial newsletter, I began to think a bit more about how our society has changed.
  • The world we live in is less dangerous, more antiseptic, and less fun than it was 20 years ago.
  • We required backup cameras on all new cars and trucks, requiring a huge capital investment on the part of automakers (and increased prices for consumers), to save a handful of lives each year. The calculus on saving lives totally changed ― in the past, one would do a cost-benefit analysis, and now, any amount of money will be spent as long as it saves one life.
And so on.

It's getting to the point where I wonder if things like off-track bushwalking will continue to be permitted. November is a particularly hot and humid month in the Top End so I designed a trip which was as easy as I could make it. Walking almost entirely in the relative cool of the morning. Staying close to cooling creeks where you could stop and have a refreshing swim, but no, Kakadu closed all overnight walks due to the heat. I've been walking up here for more than 40 years, but this was a first. Fortunately, there was an NT park where I was able to do a walk but I can't help but wonder how long this will last.

We are producing (or maybe we already have produced) a generation unprepared for the real world where things aren't perfect, where there are some things they can't do. One young person on my last walk told me how much of a shock it was when he got a job and discovered that there really were things he couldn't do. All through school he'd been told he could do everything no matter how badly he did. In the real world (at least in most of private enterprise), you have to get things right to keep your job.

A somewhat older person told of hosting a work experience student who basically did nothing. When she complained to the teacher, she was told how nice a person he was, too nice to fail. The real world isn't like that. That student will get a nasty shock if he ever gets a job where he HAS to do a particular task and do it correctly.

Our Changing Society

Here are a few stories along similar lines which I think are worth a browse.

• The New Inquisition
  Full of great quotes and links. This is one of the most important links in this newsletter. Highly recommended.
• Dr. Becky Doesn't Think the Goal of Parenting Is to Make Your Kid Happy *
  "our kids live in a world of immediate gratification. The internet, the iPads, the ease of everything. Because there are so many ways right now to get around frustration, you have to be mindful to raise kids who learn how to tolerate it."
  "Is happiness the goal of parenting? No. Anybody who had a childhood in which happiness was the goal would be predestined for a lifetime of anxiety ― life is full of distress!"
  Maybe this is a sign of things finally changing.
• The 37-Year-Olds Are Afraid of the 23-Year-Olds Who Work for Them *
  Twenty-somethings rolling their eyes at the habits of their elders is a longstanding trend, but many employers said there's a new boldness in the way Gen Z dictates taste.
• In Defense of 'Inappropriate' Kid Movies *
  Starting in the early 2000s, there was a market for movies that kids and parents would watch together, Scott said, which led to movies becoming more overtly moralistic. Parents wanted to think that what they let their kids watch was wholesome, maybe even edifying.
  But I do think something is gained by letting children enjoy a varied media diet, including entertainment that might challenge them emotionally, inspire them to think critically or leave them without an uplifting message.
• Bill Maher Blasts 'Outrageous' Censorship from Google, Facebook On COVID Origins, Ivermectin
  This is one of the links in The New Inquisition above. I don't agree with everything in this one but it's still worth a read.
• Adaptability may be your most essential skill in the covid-19 world **
  The need to be adaptable is one thing that's missing in a lot of young lives these days. We'll pay for this lack, only questions are how and when.
• You Can't Make Me Angry is a personal anecdote from a paid financial newsletter by Jared Dillian, the author of the first link in this section. It's a great philosophy.
• Australian governments urged to set a date to ban cigarette retail sales
  Public health experts liken phasing out tobacco retailing to removing asbestos and lead paint from the market, but ....
  Leave it to the 'experts' and we get a disaster. Some people are so addicted that they would rather die than give up smoking. Restricting sales to people under an ever rising age and restricting sales to specific outlets is a better solution. Otherwise you risk setting up a black market similar to the one for cocaine etc. It would be a disaster like prohibition in the USA.
• If not in a university, then where? Academia must define harm to allow open debate on difficult issues
  Well thought out article, a middle ground. Guaranteed to upset people on both extremes of the debate.

Where Can You Find Truth ― A Surprise?

In this highly partisan and politicised world, one source stands out.

• Students are told not to use Wikipedia for research. But it's a trustworthy source
  For popular articles, Wikipedia's online community of volunteers, administrators and bots ensure edits are based on reliable citations. Popular articles are reviewed thousands of times. Some media experts, such as Amy Bruckman, a professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology's computing centre, argue that because of this painstaking process, a highly-edited article on Wikipedia might be the most reliable source of information ever created.
• Wikipedia: The Most Reliable Source on the Internet?
  Something about this massive online knowledge repository is working better than the rest of the internet, and we can learn from it.
  ".... the content of a popular Wikipedia page is actually the most reliable form of information ever created. Think about it ―a peer-reviewed journal article is reviewed by three experts (who may or may not actually check every detail), and then is set in stone. The contents of a popular Wikipedia page might be reviewed by thousands of people. If something changes, it is updated. Those people have varying levels of expertise, but if they support their work with reliable citations, the results are solid. On the other hand, a less popular Wikipedia page might not be reliable at all."

Read that last bit again. Popular pages on Wikipedia are almost certain to be correct. Less popular pages may not be as accurate and need additional checking.

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Our Government

Freedom of the Press

• Australia falls 5 places on World Press Freedom Index
• 2021 World Press Freedom Index
  The Scandinavian countries hold the top four places, Costa Rica is #5; NZ #8; Australia at #26 is behind Namibia at #25; USA is #44; Singapore which ranks highly in many measures comes in at a dismal #160 of 180.
• PM's office failed to meet deadlines for majority of freedom of information requests in past year
  Complaints about government's handling of FoI requests shot up 39% in one year as delays increased and requests were rejected
  Maybe the government's philosophy is, "Keep them ignorant and maybe we can get re-elected."
• Their ABC: no so trusted anymore
  How significant it is that the ABC has fallen from 5th to 19th most trusted brand in just two years .... the ABC "risks falling out of the top 20 most trusted brands completely."
  Sad to see

Corruption

• Independent will lobby Coalition MPs to support proposed anti-corruption commission
  Helen Haines will work to secure numbers in parliament after Scott Morrison told her the government will not allow debate on her bill
• Grattan on Friday: Morrison government faces battle over integrity commission it doesn't really want
• With a federal election looming, is there new hope for leadership on integrity and transparency?
  Historically, both major parties have been slow to initiate the reforms needed to reverse Australia's slide on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index or global press freedom rankings.
• Car parks scheme would 'amount to corruption' if federal watchdog existed, ex-NSW auditor general says
  Senate inquiry hears $4bn program amounted to 'improper use of power which could be challenged in court
  It's no wonder that the federal government doesn't want a watchdog with teeth.
• CPI 2020: TROUBLE IN THE TOP 25 COUNTRIES
  Common perceptions of corruption. Even the top countries have lots of room for improvement. US came in at #26
• Labor leader Peter Malinauskas wore wire to record blackmail-accused Annabel Digance, court documents state
  When I read the story in full, I wasn't so sure who was in the wrong. Maybe it really is a government attempt to keep someone quiet. Read it and make up your own mind.

Power Grab

• Victoria's draft pandemic law is missing one critical element ― stronger oversight of the government's decisions
  Another attack on democracy. Worth reading the detail.
• Victoria's controversial pandemic bill: 6 ways for the government to show it is serious about scrutiny

Voter ID

• Voter ID bill may discourage turnout and no evidence it will prevent fraud, committee says
  Parliamentary committee on human rights warns Coalition's plan could disproportionately impact disadvantaged groups
• 'Trumpian' voter ID proposal slammed ahead of federal election
  The last quote sums it up, "Corruption in government is a bigger and more urgent issue."

Wasting Our Money

• Cost of Australia holding each refugee on Nauru balloons to $4.3m a year
  Taxpayer cost of offshore processing regime revealed as government remains silent on where $400m went.
• Brisbane company worth just $8 when awarded $385m Nauru offshore processing contract
  Since 2017 the contract ― now worth $1.6bn ― has been amended seven times without competitive tender
  When I read the first story above, I thought it was just government incompetence. After reading the second, I can't help but wonder what an anti-corruption watchdog would find.

Signs of Hope

• Coalition's planned crackdown on charities should be scrapped, Liberal-led committee finds
  Proposed changes threaten free speech and give regulator overly broad powers, committee says. Sadly, I don't think any of the liberals on the committee actually voted against the government bill.
• Senate scuttles Coalition crackdown on charity advocacy work
  In a major defeat for the Morrison government, crossbenchers joined Labor and the Greens to disallow rules charities say were designed to silence them
• 'Keep the bastards honest': former Australian Democrats leader joins high-profile group backing independents
  Meg Lees joins former Liberal leader John Hewson and Labor veteran Barry Jones on Climate 200 advisory council
• Liberal MP crosses the floor to support independent bill for federal integrity commission
  Tasmanian Liberal Bridget Archer is 'offended' Coalition is prioritising religious discrimination bill over anti-corruption watchdog.
  We need more politicians who are willing to vote their conscience rather than pure party lines.

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Covid

Covid has changed our society forever. The 'new normal' won't be the same as the old one. I've regularly updated my covid blog since it first began in March 2020. If you haven't visited it recently, it's worth having a look. Browse down through the past few posts and click on any links that interest you. You'll find some things that never made it into the mainstream press.

Omicron

Every story I've seen that is worth reading agrees that there is still so much we don't know about the new variant that it's not yet worth speculating on what will happen. To quote an article in the NY Times,
  • "it will be weeks, at least, before scientists can say with confidence whether it is more contagious ― early evidence suggests it is ― whether it causes more serious illness, and how it responds to vaccines."
  • "The lack of a consistent and coherent global approach has resulted in a splintered and disjointed response, breeding misunderstanding, misinformation and mistrust."
If you're curious, here's the full article, Fragmented Reactions Hinder Global Fight Against Omicron Variant *

Covid & Kids

I used this in my Covid Blog. I think it's so important, I'm repeating it here.

How to talk to your child about a COVID diagnosis .... and share the news with others
If you have unvaccinated children, this is the most important story in this newsletter.

WW & WA

WA regions with low COVID vaccination rates likely to be closed off from rest of state, Premier says
It's unlikely but given the low vaccination rates in the Kimberley and Pilbara, it is conceivable our whole WA program could go.

What To Believe

Two stories I found helpful.

• COVID death data can be shared to make it look like vaccines don't work, or worse ― but that's not the whole picture
• How Covid Raised the Stakes of the War Between Faith and Science
  The message to religious communities needs to be, "Don't trust science instead of God; trust science as a gift from God." Church leaders can praise God for creation and the unique ability to be able to study and understand it.
  In turn, the scientific community could be more honest about the limits of the discipline. "Sometimes people say things like, 'If everyone would just accept the science, the world would be great,'" Haarsma said. But she notes that science doesn't solve everything and that scientific communities have to "acknowledge the value of religion as a way of answering life's biggest questions."

Misc

• Countries hailed as COVID-19 success stories are now reimposing restrictions
  A growing number of countries that had lifted COVID-19 restrictions are now reimposing them as cases surge.
• Will Australia follow Europe into a fourth COVID wave? Boosters, vaccinating kids, ventilation and masks may help us avoid it
  "New OzSAGE modelling for NSW shows possible increasing cases from mid-December with a predicted peak in February 2022, despite high vaccination rates. OzSAGE warns if contact tracing is not maintained and children 5-11 remain unvaccinated, hospitals may be overwhelmed again. But if we vaccinate young kids and maintain high testing and tracing, the outlook is good."
  Can you see all that happening? I can't.
  The article has some good links to other articles like No, vaccinated people are not 'just as infectious' as unvaccinated people if they get COVID. The explanation is somewhat complicated but so is reality. Some things just can't be simplified.
• Anti-vaxxers using bribery and fake certificates to avoid vaccination, Australian government warned
  Pharmacists and aged care providers tell MPs of tactics being employed to escape public health laws including 'no jab, no job'
  The federal and governments may have good intentions, but the way they have been pushing their rules was always guaranteed to create a pushback.
• See Australia's state and territory Covid vaccination rollouts animated over time
  Animated data analysis demonstrates dramatic effect Delta outbreaks had on jab rates. Bit out of date but interesting to see how the NT squandered an early lead to drop down to near the bottom of the pack.
• Covid-19 vaccine Australia rollout tracker by state: total number of people and per cent vaccinated, daily vaccine doses and rate of progress
  If you like statistics, this has everything you could want.

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Photos, Videos & Just For Fun

Interesting comments on the world we live in.

• In Brazil, people take spectacular pictures tempting fate by hanging from this famous rock.
  There is a lesson here for all of us.
• Today's Outfit Is Confidence': Atypical TikTok Star Enchants Mexico *
  Middle-aged and scarred, a Mexican journalist is breaking the mold of social media influencers with a message of pure positivity that resonates in dark times.
• After 40 Years, Abba Takes a Chance With Its Legacy *
  How one of the biggest pop groups in the world secretly reunited to make a new album and a high-tech stage show featuring digital avatars of themselves ― from 1979.
• Rambo, Romeo, Rome: His Posters Capture Films' Essential Moments *
  Renato Casaro's hand-drawn art has hooked movie audiences around the world since the 1950s. Tarantino and Stallone are big fans. One secret to his success? "You can't cheat."

My Favourite

I find it hard to think of a better way to end this newsletter.
Everything I Know About Hope I Learned From My Dog *
There is a bit of a lesson here for all of us.

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