Covid 19 Blog
We've been updating this page on an occasional basis when we had something significant to add. Unless something changes, this could be the last one.
Latest update: 3 February 2023
Covid is still having a much larger effect on our lives than most people realise. According to the best statistics I can find, about 2500 more people have died of or with Covid since my last update on 27 November 2022. That's a bit more than 13% of the grand total.
Many of the articles below are on websites that have limits. I'm not sure what those limits are. Articles marked * are from The NY Times, those marked ** are from The Washington Post.
How to Get Past a Paywall to Read an Article for Free
Even if you regularly support journalism by paying, sometimes you need to get around it.
- In Australia
- Low immunity, overwhelmed hospitals fuel Covid-19 deaths in ageing Japan
This story is about Japan, but the graph also shows Australia, the USA and South Korea. At end date, Australia had the highest current per capita death rate. If the trend continues, we could set a new record.
- Health department reviewing fifth COVID-19 vaccine. But what if you have missed a dose?
Given my age and probable exposure, I'll get a 5th if and when it becomes available.
- In looking up data for this update, I discovered that recently Australia had been having about double the number of deaths per capita as in the USA.
Weekly confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people
- Latest COVID-19 surge is mostly infecting Australians who have not had the disease before
- Covid becomes Australia's third most common cause of death in 2022
The virus trails only heart disease and dementia after an estimated 7,100 fatalities from January to July, researchers say
- The Long Tail of Covid-19 Disinformation *
Almost all of Australia and New Zealand's pandemic restrictions have been lifted. Yet the protests continue.
It's an old link, but it still applies.
- In America
- U.S. Plans to End Public Health Emergency for Covid in May *
The end of the emergency, planned for May 11, will bring about a complex set of policy changes and signals a new chapter in the government's pandemic response.
"An average of more than 500 people in the United States are still dying from Covid-19 each day, about twice the number of deaths per day during a bad flu season."
- A Lasting Legacy of Covid: Far-Right Platforms Spreading Health Myths *
The Biden administration has pushed social media giants like Facebook to curb Covid misinformation. But it is thriving on fringe platforms like Gab, a hub for extremist content.
"the spread of health misinformation ― particularly on fringe social media platforms like Gab ― is likely to be a lasting legacy of the coronavirus pandemic. And there are no easy solutions."
- For the Uninsured, Covid Care Has Entered a New Stage of Crisis *
As federal funding for the pandemic response dries up, Americans without health insurance risk being left footing the bill for coronavirus tests and treatments.
- In China With so much of the world's economy dependent on China, what happens there affects us all.
- The Long Term
Latest update: 27 November
Health Systems remain under threat
- In America, RSV, covid and flu push hospitals to the brink ― and it may get worse **
"More than half a million people in the health care and social services sectors quit their positions in September ― evidence, in part, of burnout associated with the coronavirus pandemic ― and the American Medical Association says 1 in 5 doctors plan on leaving the field within two years.
- It's as bad in Australia.
Health worker resignations surge by almost 20%, fresh data shows #
If we don't make conditions better, the system will collapse. We can't just keep recruiting people from overseas, giving them terrible worming conditions and hoping that they stay.
- We could do better. Victoria is missing a golden opportunity to rethink the health system #
• "The big question that we as a society really need to ask ourselves is are we missing an opportunity to reform the healthcare system to keep people well?"
• Public health experts, medical groups, economists and doctors say there are two glaring omissions in this year's Victorian election campaign from both sides of politics: a failure of much-needed reform and lack of crucial investment into preventive health.
• ".... billions and billions of dollars worth of capital works for health infrastructure have been promised from both sides, but little mention is made of how much it is going to cost to run the new hospitals.
• "Where's the money going to come from in four years time or five years time or 10 years time to run the things?"
• "Prevention is much cheaper than hospital work, but prevention is not glamorous. You don't see politicians standing in front of us [GPs] .... but they will stand in front of a brand new MRI machine, to take a photo, because that's glamorous."
• .... "what was missing from all the billions of dollars worth of election promises on both sides of politics is any real investment into preventative health"
-
RSV, covid and flu are keeping kids out of school ― and parents out of work **
Workplace absences for child-care reasons rose to an all-time high in October, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
This story is from the USA but I suspect it's similar here in Australia.
-
Cruise ship Majestic Princess with hundreds of COVID-infected passengers docks in Sydney
The ship docked on 12/11/22. It was big enough news to be reported in the Washington Post in America. A cruise ship with 800 covid cases docks in Sydney **
Are you a NOVID?
Why haven't I had COVID-19 yet? Am I a NOVID?
I'm lucky. As far as I know, I'm a NOVID.
China. We still depend on China for many of our imports and depend on them to buy our raw materials. What happens in China affects us all. Here's a collection of stroies about what's happening there.
Public protests are rare in China. The fact that so many are happening shows just how bad the situation is.
29 July ― It's getting worse!
Life in Australia far from a pre-covid normal. We may NEVER get back.
- Increasing numbers are getting reinfected. Covid hospitalisations in Australia hit new record, surpassing January peak
Experts say lower ICU figures partly due to aged care deaths, while AMA vice president labels number of Covid patients 'massive'.
- Australia's Covid death rate has been among the lowest in the OECD during the pandemic ― but not this week
More than half of the Covid deaths in Australia have occurred since March and the rate is increasing
When I checked the official government covid website and compared the numbers with those I'd written down two months earlier, Australia had been averaging almost 50 deaths per day from Covid. In the last six days, it's been 80. Even at the lower rate, Covid is on track to kill something like 16 times the number we kill on our roads.
- Aged care sector warns ADF assistance not enough to address 'stark' staff shortages
Unions and providers welcome one-month extension of workforce support but say tens of thousands of aged care workers unavailable.
Keeping people in aged-cre costs money. Current policies will help keep costs down by killing off more of those in care.
- We still depend on China for many of the things we use in or daily lives. China has a problem. Lockdowns in China could cause shortages around the world.
- WW & Covid
• We haven't yet lost a guide. If it does happen at the last minute, we might not be able to replace them.
• All our charter flights have got through so far but the charter companiues we use have been having serious staff shortages due to Covid.
• We include with aboriginal traditional owners on many of our trips. So far so good, but if the wrong person gets Covid, one of those tours coujl;d be cancelled with little or no notice.
19 May ― It's no where near over!
Life in Australia is getting back to normal ― sort of. Most people don't seem to realise just how much it's still affecting us all.
- Over half of those who have died of covid in Australia have done so since 27 January this year. That's more deaths in four months than in the previous two years! For the last six weeks, Australia has averaged about 35 covid deaths per day. Thankfully, hospital numbers have been relatively stable.
- Increasing numbers are getting reinfected. What are the odds of catching COVID-19 twice? Here's what we know about reinfection
- "Long covid', even for those who had relatively mild cases, is becoming an increasing problem, so much so that four states have already set up special long covid clinics. Long COVID clinics likely to be required across the country
"South Australia is the latest state to open dedicated facilities aimed at addressing a chronic health issue that is expected to escalate in coming months."
- Over 75 Percent of Long Covid Patients Were Not Hospitalized for Initial Illness, Study Finds *
• Researchers analyzed the largest database of private insurance claims in the United States in the first four months after a diagnostic code for long Covid was created.
• A striking finding was that while two-thirds of the patients had pre-existing health conditions in their medical records, nearly a third did not, a much larger percentage than Dr. Ssentongo said he would have expected. "These are people who have been healthy and they're like, 'Guys, something is not right with me,'" he said.
• Read the details and you'll see that a surprising number are relatively young.
- We still depend on China for many of the things we use in or daily lives. China has a problem. Lockdowns in China could cause shortages around the world.
- Covid and Travel
- Domestic travel in Australia is now fairly unrestricted but the airlines are still cancelling and rescheduling flights at a much greater rate than prior to the pandemic. We've already had people miss trips because of flight changes. We can't refund your money in that case so you need to insure against that kind of loss.
- If you get covid just before a trip, you won't be able to come. You need to insure against that possibility.
- What if? What if our guide gets covid just before a trip and can't do it. If that happens, we will refund your money, but we cannot refund any accommodation or travel costs that you might have incurred. Your insurance needs to cover you against that.
- International travel is not back to normal. Restrictions in Japan forced us to cancel our Japan trips. If you are going overseas you need to find out what the restrictions are to enter your destination and what they are when you return.
We may be able to offer a trip to southern Africa late this year. If you think you might be interested send me an email and I'll send you more info.
30 March ― Points to Ponder
- We still depend on China for many of the things we use in or daily lives. China has a problem. Lockdowns in China could cause shortages around the world.
- Dying for your beliefs
- The Covid Lottery.
People who chose not to get vaccinated have a much higher risk of getting seriously ill and a much larger chance of dying than those who have been vaccinated.
- This is the best link in this post. Please read it.
Dying for GDP ― Burial Boom
About a third of the 900,000 US COVID-19 deaths (so far) occurred since vaccines became widely available. That means many who died could have lived, had they simply been vaccinated. The shots aren't perfect but they greatly reduce serious illness and death.
Now the economy is performing well. Yet I think it would be doing even better if fewer people had made decisions that led to their own death or disability. They didn't have to choose; they (and everyone else) could have had it both ways. But that's not the choice they made.
- We Study Virus Evolution. Here's Where We Think the Coronavirus Is Going. *
Covid will never go away. It will continue to mutate. All we can do is hope that the most contagious mutations continue to be less lethal than the original. Well worth a read.
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. It's worth noting that in an increasing number of the few countries I've been following, the percentage of people dying from covid has increased faster than the number catching it. The numbers in hospital and in intensive care is higher than two weeks ago but not dramaticlly so.
I've been following the vaccination rollout on the COVID-19 vaccination daily rollout update. Young children (5-11) rarely get very sick from Covid but they are good at spreading it. The number of children who have had one shot has barely increased over the past three weeks (up 2% to 52%). The number with two shots has skyrocketed (up from 2% to 26%). It appears that Australian parents are almost equally divided between those who think vaccination is a good idea and those who don't want their young children to be vaccinated at all.
Also interesting to see how slowly the number who have had a booster is increasing. If you want to enter WA, you can't get in without a booster if you are eligible for ne.
9 March ― WA is Open
Our Covid Guarantee
If any border restriction prevents someone who is fully vaccinated (to enter WA, fully vaccinated means having had a booster if you are eligible for one) rom coming on a trip they booked, we will give them a 100% refund. This does not cover you if you get covid. Some travel policies will cover that so make sure you get insurance and make sure that you will be covered for cancellation fees if you get covid.
-
In the past four weeks, the total number of people in hospital with covid has dropped by half and the number in ICU has dropped by 60%. The worst appears to be behind us. Appears to be.
- Covid and Your Brain
- I'm at home with COVID. When do I need to see a doctor? And what treatments are available?
If you or someone close to you catches Covid, this article is a must.
- Covid and Education
- It's 'Alarming': Children Are Severely Behind in Reading *
The fallout from the pandemic is just being felt. "We're in new territory," educators say.
"As the pandemic enters its third year, a cluster of new studies now show that about a third of children in the youngest grades are missing reading benchmarks, up significantly from before the pandemic."
- From my last newsletter but worth repeating, 1+1=4? Latin America Confronts a Pandemic Education Crisis. *
With economies reeling and millions cut off from the classroom, Latin America's students are leaving school in alarming numbers, experts say.
It's not just Latin America. Education, especially education for the less well off, has suffered in most countries.
It's not just education, Here's a quote from the Latin America section in The World in 2022 mentioned earlier in this newsletter.
Latin America "accounts for just over 8 percent of the global population, but as of the end of 2021, it accounted for approximately 18 percent of confirmed cases worldwide and 30 percent of deaths. Poor health infrastructure, insufficient vaccine availability and the inability of much of the labor force to work online conspired to wreck the region. A third of registered jobs lost globally were from Latin America, and the regional average loss of income was double the global average. Inflation in the region's five largest economies is also outpacing the average inflation rate of emerging economies. Unsurprisingly, poverty is at a 12-year high, and extreme poverty at a 20-year high. Economic and development gains from the past decade have been wiped out in the past two years."
We've been offering trips to South America since 1990. I can't help but wonder how they will be affected.
- I haven't found anything about Covid and education in Australia more recent than March 2021. My guess is that things would be similar, but not as bad, here.
- As a percent of the population, the USA has had about 14 times more deaths from Covid than Australia. America's culture wars help explain this.
How much of the covid death toll is a function of peer pressure? **
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. It's worth noting that the USA is one of the few countries I've been following where the number dying from covid has increased faster than the number catching it. I've put those numbers in red. Some of the other countries where that is true are countries with poorly developed health systems where many mild cases are likely to be undiagnosed.
8 February 2022 ― Past the peak?
- The total number of people in hospital and the number in ICU have both continued to drop over the past week. maybe, just maybe, that will encourage WA to set a date for re-opening their border to the rest of the country.
- Tilson Coronavirus Update 5 Feb 22
The author of this weekly blog provides one of the best summaries I've seen, really well thoguht out, good stats, and a few things you might not have known.
• "For the vaccinated, the future will likely look like that for colds in younger people and the flu in older people. People die from the flu but we do not shut down society every flu season. There will be new variants, so we can't be certain, but the odds favor the scenario outlined above, in my view."
• "More data (not that any is needed for those with an IQ greater than that of a turnip) showing that the unvaccinated in the U.S., during the week ending Dec. 4, were 97 TIMES more likely to die from COVID than those who are vaxxed and boosted"
• "Anti-vaxxers making 'at least $2.5m' a year from publishing on Substack." Some individuals are making more than US $1 million."
- Your tax dollars pay for anti-vax propaganda.
George Christensen claims $10,000 a month for 'e-material' as he ramps up anti-vaccine mandate Facebook ads
"Facebook data shows Nationals MP spent thousands calling for an end to vaccine discrimination and 'medical apartheid'"
- Qld Covid update: chief health officer urges immediate halt to 'pox parties' aimed at spreading virus
State records 20,566 new cases amid reports of people deliberately trying to spread coronavirus to increase their immunity
The mind boggles. The only way spreading the virus in a group of unvaccinated people will increase their immunity is if they catch it and recover. If you are going to catch it, better to do so when relatively few other people have it.
-
Can Drugs for Other Diseases Help People With Mild or Moderate COVID-19?
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is launching new trials to see if medications already in pharmacies can be repurposed to help people with mild or moderate COVID-19. Here's a look, plus info on how to volunteer from the comfort of your couch.
Thre's been lots of hype about Ivermectin. The above puts a bit of cold water on it but a proper study being launched.
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. It's worth noting that in all the countries I've been following, the worst record is still less than ⅓ of 1% dying from Covid.
In Australia, the total number of people and in hospital has continued trending down for the last week. In spite of the recent increase in deaths, Australia still has one of the lowest death rates in the world.
3 February 2022 ― Why are so many Americans dying?
- U.S. Has Far Higher Covid Death Rate Than Other Wealthy Countries
"Two years into the pandemic, the coronavirus is killing Americans at far higher rates than people in other wealthy nations, a sobering distinction to bear as the country charts a course through the next stages of the pandemic."
Australia looks pretty good, but no where near as good as we did two months ago.
- It could have been worse. As Omicron Crests, Booster Shots Are Keeping Americans Out of Hospitals *
Extra vaccine doses were expected to lower infection rates. But the shots also seem to be preventing severe illness caused by the new variant, the C.D.C. reported.
-
Three household COVID-19 outbreaks, three different results: Why some exposed people don't catch Omicron
- There Will Be Another Variant. Here's What the World Can Do Now. *
But we won't. Politicians are programmed to react to events as they happen, not prevent them before they might happen.
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. It's worth noting that in all the countries I've been following, the worst record is still less than ⅓ of 1% dying from Covid.
In Australia, the total number of people and in hospital has been trending slowly down for just over a week. In spite of the recent increase in deaths, Australia still has one of the lowest death rates in the world.
26 January 2022 ― Eastern Australia may be nearing a covid peak.
- Peak covid?
- Medicine
- Government Bungles
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. Australia may be nearing an Omicron peak, but it comes with a cost. Over the past two weeks, the percentage increase in cases and deaths has been higher in Australia than in any of the other countries I've been following. The number of cases reported in the world chart is higher than the number reported on the official Australian Government website, but the number of deaths is the same. On the brighter side, the percentage of the population who has died from Covid in Australia is far less than in most other countries.
- Where do I get the statistics
11 January 2022, updated 26 January ― What, Me Worry?
If you're worried about Covid, the table below may alleviate some of your fears.
In the 9 January blog I explained how many of the official government Covid statistics are misleading; some completely wrong.
The total number with Covid can be taken as a minimum. The number of people who have died with (not necessarily because of) covid is probably fairly accurate. The following table might help put the danger in perspective. Except for the date shown in red, the intervals are four weeks.
| Date |
... Cases ... |
Percent increase |
... Deaths ... |
Percent increase |
|---|
| 18/01/2021 |
28,721 |
--- |
909 |
--- |
| 15/02/2021 |
28,900 |
1% |
909 |
0% |
| 15/03/2021 |
29,130 |
1% |
910 |
0% |
| 12/04/2021 |
29,437 |
1% |
910 |
0% |
| 10/05/2021 |
29,931 |
2% |
910 |
0% |
| 17/05/2021 |
30,268 |
0% |
910 |
0% |
| 14/06/2021 |
30,268 |
1% |
910 |
0% |
| 12/07/2021 |
31,224 |
3% |
911 |
0% |
| 09/08/2021 |
36,630 |
17% |
939 |
3% |
| 06/09/2021 |
63,400 |
73% |
1044 |
11% |
| 04/10/2021 |
113,411 |
79% |
1346 |
29% |
| 01/11/2021 |
173,165 |
53% |
1756 |
30% |
| 29/11/2021 |
210,235 |
21% |
2006 |
14% |
| 27/12/2021 |
320,865 |
53% |
2202 |
10% |
| 24/01/2022 |
1,680,448 |
423% |
3154 |
43% |
The huge increase in the percentage of deaths is because we were so low at the beginning of the Omicron outbreak. The total is still only 0.01% of the population.
We got a spike when delta first hit back in August. The number of deaths increased but the percentage increase was much smaller than the percentage increase in cases. Omicron has brought a huge surge in case numbers but a lower increase in deaths than delta. Given the way that omicron spreads, it is almost inevitable that almost all of us will be exposed. For those who have been vaccinated, 'so what?' The chances of a serious reaction are tiny. Even for the unvaccinated, the chances of serious effects from the disease seem small. It has now spread to some relatively remote Aboriginal communities where the vaccination rate is low. Given the poor health conditions in some of those communities, if it doesn't cause a disaster there, it shouldn't do so anywhere. So far, so good ― still only two covid deaths in the NT.
General Info
Scroll down for previous posts.
There is a lot of mis-information on the web. We hope that the information here will help you make sense of what's really happening in these trying times.
- Australian Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers gives the current state and national statistics. In the week to 9 December, there had been 75 new cases but 74 of them were returners from overseas in quarantine. Only one was a case of local transmission.
- From the Washington Post, Mapping the worldwide spread of the coronavirus gives the international figures and links to a page giving the state by state info for the US. It's particularly interesting to look at the figures compared to population. There is no country which has reported as much as 10% of the population being infected. Only tiny Andorra comes close. In the US, only two states have reached 10% and the country as a whole is reporting less than 5%. We're going to see a lot more before a vaccine gets into wide circulation.
- From the Financial Times, Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads
The real numbers seem to be far worse than the reported ones. "The FT has gathered and analysed data on excess mortality — the numbers of deaths over and above the historical average — across the globe, and has found that numbers of deaths in some countries are more than 50 per cent higher than usual. In many countries, these excess deaths exceed reported numbers of Covid-19 deaths by large margins."
Our world will never go back to what it was like a few months ago. Our newsletter has more information. The last newsletter went out on 30 June. The next one will have more info. Click the 'subscribe to our newsletter' link in the top menu and we'll send you one when it comes out.
If you have some good information to add, please send us an email and let us know what you've found.
Articles marked * are from the NY Times which has a limit of 20 free articles per month, less if you go direct. I've got so many that I thought it worth marking them so you can more easily choose which to look at. Articles marked ** are from other soources with limited access. The Washington Post Corona Virus coverage is free they limit access to other stories.
9 January 2022 ― Lies, damned lies and statistics ― Covid statistics
If you're worried about Covid, this may be the most important covid blog I've done.
Many of the official government Covid statistics are misleading. Some are outright wrong.
I hadn't realised just how bad it was until I noticed that the official government websites said that over 2/3 of the people in the NT who had been diagnosed with covid were in hospital. Bulls**t! There's no way our health system could cope with that. I dug deeper. The information below includes links to where I found it. I'm not sure why it's being exaggerated in this way. Maybe someone wants to keep us all scared.
On 11 January, the NT hospitalisation figures suddenly dropped from 2169 the day before to 30. Much more realistic but even that includes people admitted to hospital for other reasons then found to have covid.
- On 7 January, the official Australian government website showed that there were 1097 Covid hospitalisations in the NT. The Covid Live website showed the same. According to those same websites, the NT had recorded a total of 1505 cases of Covid since the start of the pandemic. More than 2/3 of the total cases in hospital? No way.
- On the same day, the NT Health Minister reported that "There are 19 coronavirus patients in Territory hospitals, with two people in the ICU and one person on a ventilator."
That same report said, "of the 1,200 people with COVID-19 in the NT, only five people are in hospital needing medical treatment for coronavirus, the other 14 were there 'for different reasons'."
19 instead of 1097 and only 5 for Covid. That's a very different picture to the one on the main Covid websites. Here's a link to the story.
NT records 412 new cases of COVID-19, including 70 of community transmission
- The info from the other states is just as misleading.
- 'Up to half' of NSW Covid hospital patients went in for something totally different and were positive in routine testing
"The NSW Health Health Minister (said) that many of those listed in the daily statistics are simply testing positive in routine checks after being admitted for broken bones, labour pains or even mental health issues. Queensland Health has a similar reporting process in place."
- SA records five deaths, as hospitalisations also rise with 16 people in ICU
"The total number of patients in hospital includes people who have been admitted for other medical reasons but have also tested positive for COVID. That number includes women who have been admitted to give birth. Mr Marshall said 80 per cent of patients in ICU were not vaccinated."
- NSW Health says 74 per cent of NSW ICU patients since December 16 had the Delta variant
"Roughly three quarters of the Covid patients in NSW's ICU wards, where the strain of their infection is known, have the Delta variant ― in an encouraging sign as Omicron supersedes the previous variant."
"NSW Health also confirmed today that more than 62 per cent of ICU patients with the Delta variant since December 16 were not vaccinated or had one dose of vaccine."
"Despite Covid cases rising to an all time-high in Australia, a surprisingly low number of people are requiring the most serious level of treatment."
"Victoria revealed a significant number of people recorded as Covid-19 cases in hospital had initially been admitted for reasons ranging from cancer treatment to broken bones.
- The WA border is still scheduled to open to the rest of Australia on 5 February, but ....
- Rampant Omicron COVID-19 outbreak throws a 'curve ball' at WA's border reopening plans
It's not all gloom and doom, as the story above notes, "SA had predicted about 5 per cent of those who tested positive for the Delta strain would end up in hospital, but that figure is closer to 0.5 per cent of those with Omicron."
"The problem is 0.5 of a very large number is still a very large number in South Australia, so that's why we have got to space those cases out, that's why we put those restrictions in place, that's why we're asking people to get those vaccinations," Mr Marshall said.
"In South Australia, between 30 and 40 per cent of those in hospital are unvaccinated, and in the ICU that figure is around 80 per cent ― a significant over-representation of that group.
- Western Australia's COVID-19 border set to fall, but don't look for approval to enter the state just yet
• The G2G approval system is set to continue when borders reopen
• However, travellers applying to enter Western Australia after the reopening date are being knocked back
• They are being asked to delay submitting applications at this point
- 'Not ideal': WA's reopening date to coincide with national peak in COVID cases
"while evidence suggested the severity of infections was milder, mask-wearing and social distancing measures would be needed to flatten the curve to allow the hospital system to cope."
"WA needs to swing from being the best place in the world for the last two years to basically everybody having masks on indoors, reducing density in hospitality and reducing the number of people visiting the home while the numbers are going up and until they peak to slow that climb down, so the peak doesn't get as high."
- For now, all we can do is wait and see what happens as the re-opening date draws closer.
- The real problem. Lack of health staff.
- NSW nurses say they feel pressure not to take sick days as COVID-19 stretches healthcare resources
"People think they have a certain idea of what goes on in hospitals. They don't."
From what I can tell, low pay and lousy conditions for those at the front line is Australia wide. Last year, a friend who works at RDH told me that operating theatres were often unused because of a lack of nurses. High paid surgeons with no work and patients who needed operations mkissing out because of a lack of nursing staff.
- Staff shortages due to COVID-19 taking a toll across all industries in NSW
From a bit over halfway down the page above, "On Tuesday, more than 3,000 health staff were furloughed, because they had COVID-19 or were a close contact. NSW nurses have told the ABC they're feeling pressured not to take sick leave or mental health days, with staff members managing the workload of several people at once."
- 'The system is absolutely not coping': Hospital staff struggle as COVID-19 admissions rise
"The state's Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant insists the health system is "very well placed", despite the stress being placed onto the state's frontline staff."
Dr Chant reassured NSW residents the health system is available for those who need it, urging people with health concerns not to delay seeking treatment.
"But another doctor in NSW told SBS News that it's "really disappointing and discouraging" to hear the government "burying the truth" when frontline workers are dealing with the immense workload in hospitals."
"The system is absolutely not coping. I don't think you'll find a single healthcare worker who says that it is," she said.
"To say that the system is coping is a blatant lie ... it's a real disservice to the public and it's quite offensive."
- Last but not least...
In Australia, COVID Positive Nurses Are Working In Hospitals Amid Staff Shortage: Report
"Amid a severe shortage of staff due to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, COVID positive nurses are also being recalled to work in hospitals across NSW."
- Final Thought. When the people who make decisions don't have to face the consequences of those decisions, bad decisions are inevitable.
Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. In most countries, the number of cases has been rising much faster than the number of deaths and hospitalisations. That's a good sign.
The percentage increase in the number of cases in Australia is many times higher than in any of the other countries I've been following. The percentage increase in the number of deaths is far smaller, less than in some of the countries that much smaller increases in case numbers.
We need to get used to the fact that it won't be long before we have only three kinds of people, vaccinated, recovered, and dead. Many of the vaccinated will be recovered as well. A tiny number will be dead.
31 December 2021 ― Happy New Year. We're all going to get it.
- The only questions are, how many of us will get it at the same time and how many will get seriously ill. The answers appear to be lots and very few.
- According to the Covid Live website, about 1% of those who currently have covid are in hospital. Less than 0.1% of those with covid are in intensive care.
- Good news. Omicron Variant Might Help Defend Against Delta, Lab Study Suggests *
In the lab, antibodies produced during an Omicron infection protected against Delta. If Omicron dominates in the real world, that could lead to a less dire future.
- Bad news. Widespread Coronavirus Infection Found in Iowa Deer, New Study Says *
The analysis by Penn State and Iowa researchers strongly indicates that deer are getting the virus from humans, worrying experts about a deep wild reservoir for the virus.
"If the virus were to become endemic in wild animals like deer, it could evolve over time to become more virulent and then infect people with a new strain capable of evading the current crop of vaccines."
- Has the pandemic fundamentally changed our ethics?
"As we head into the third year of the pandemic, debates continue to rage over the ethics of vaccine mandates, restrictions on civil liberties, the limits of government power and the inequitable distribution of vaccines globally."
"The pandemic moved questions of trust to the very centre of everyday decision-making. We all had to make judgments about government, scientists, news and journalists, "big pharma", and social media. The stance we take on the trustworthiness of people we've never met turns out to be pivotal to the rules we will accept."
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. In most countries, the number of cases has been rising much faster than the number of deaths and hospitalisations. That's a good sign.
However, in Australia, case numbers are rising rapidly and are likely to continue doing so.
It won't be long before we have only three kinds of people, vaccinated, recovered, and dead. Many of the vaccinated will be recovered as well. A tiny number will be dead.
10 December 2021 ― NT re-opening plan ― A Disaster For Tourism
- NT to simplify COVID-19 travel rules, removing quarantine for vaccinated travellers and requiring PCR tests
Sounds good but the devil is in the detail. Read it all and visitors won't be permitted to visit Kakadu or any of the other major parks until they have spent 14 days in Greater Darwin, Katherine or Alice Springs. How many will do that?
- Some anti-covid measures cost a lot without doing much.
Victorian government urged to drop deep clean mandates as businesses fork out thousands
Infectious disease experts suggest deep cleaning Covid-19 exposure sites is 'unlikely to do anything over and above a good clean with disinfectant'
- Vaccines
- We shouldn't lift all COVID public health measures until kids are vaccinated. Here's why
This year in Australia, 13 children and 22 adolescents have been admitted to an intensive care unit for COVID (and many more to a general hospital ward), and one child and one teenager died.
It's unclear how many children could develop long COVID, but England's National Health Service has had to open 15 long COVID clinics for children.
COVID is more risky for children than some other diseases that we already vaccinate against. Today, children are routinely vaccinated against varicella (chickenpox) in Australia. Prior to the introduction of the vaccine, there were around five to eight deaths per year from this disease.
COVID also poses a bigger risk to children than influenza. During the 2009 H1N1 (swine flu) influenza pandemic, more than 1,000 children were hospitalised and 11 died.
- No, vaccinated people are not 'just as infectious' as unvaccinated people if they get COVID
While it's difficult to estimate the rate of breakthrough infections accurately, studies have estimated they occur in 0.2% to 4% of people. In reality, this means that for every 100 vaccinated people, somewhere between 0.2 and 4 of them would get COVID.
Article makes a lot of sense. It doesn't just say yes or no to questions that don't have yes or no answers.
- What We Know So Far About Waning Vaccine Effectiveness *
"While the vaccines' effectiveness against severe disease and hospitalization has mostly held steady, even through the summer surge of the highly transmissible Delta variant, a number of published studies show that their protection against infection, with or without symptoms, has fallen."
- Should I get my COVID vaccine booster? Yes, it increases protection against COVID, including Omicron
In Israel, people who received a booster dose (five or more months after completing vaccination) had infection rates ten times lower than in people who had only received the initial two-dose course.
- Vaccinated or not, Novak Djokovic should be able to play at the Australian Open
Whether or not you agree, it is true that elite athletes have been operating under different rules to the general public for many years. Definitely worth a read.
- Omicron
- Vaccine Mandates: What The F**K Is Going On In Australia??!
The NT Chief Minister gets a look near the beginning of the video. I think his attitude is as good a weapon as the anti-vaxxers have.
- Australian Vaccination Rate As of 9 November, 88.9% of the over 16s had been fully vaccinated. There gap between the states is slowly closing, ranging from over 95% in the ACT to less than 79.3% in WA. Click here for a link to download the latest vaccination figures.
And, don't forget, the under 16's may not be affected much themselves but, they can catch it and spread it. Overall, just over 69% of the 12-15 year olds are fully vaccinated (huge difference between states ― 47% to 96½%). None or almost none of the under 12's are.
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. As of 9 December, Australia had had 10509 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. The numbers have been very slowly rising and may get worse.
If you look at the Updated Statistics table above and look at the vaccination rate, you can easily see how the rate has been slowing in most countries. Every country has some degree of vaccination resistence. In some countries, it's massive.
22 December 2021 ― We wish you a Covid Free Christmas and a Happy New Year.
- Tourism Wins
People joining our wet season tours can meet the new testing requirements for visitors to the NT Hopefully, by the time the dry season arrives, it won't be necessary to do a second test when they shold be out bush.
- The other costs of Covid.
- The Republic of COVID-19
"In some ways, the medical establishment became the government of the United States and other countries. The doctors of this community are not stupid or corrupt. They have done extraordinary work. However, their work cannot bring the disease under sufficient long-term control, so it cannot bring the economic and social consequences under control. It is not their jobs to take into account these costs; it' their job to submit medical solutions regardless of social and economic cost. But this is why they cannot be permitted to pose solutions that are adopted by the state. The cure may carry a massive price if it leads to shortages of staple goods."
- Chinese Virus Expert Launches Scathing Attack on Covid Zero Push **
A top Chinese virologist warned the country risks economic collapse if local officials continue to try to wipe out all traces of Covid-19, marking the most vocal criticism of China's so-called Covid Zero approach by one of its own experts.
- Best Australian Covid Statistics
I only recently found the Covid Live website. Good to see how low the numbers of hospitalisations and intensive care patients is in comparison to the number of new infections.
- Highly vaccinated countries thought they were over the worst. Denmark says the pandemic's toughest month is just beginning. **
Omicron may be less deadly than earlier variants, but it seems to be more contagious. "Denmark's projections show the wave so fully inundating the country that even a lessened strain will deliver an unprecedented blow."
- We calculated the impact of 'long COVID' as Australia opens up. Even without Omicron, we're worried
This is probably going to be a bigger problem than people going into hospital.
- Why Covid vaccine booster shots are so important: Omicron will 'rip right through the population,' says expert
In the US, "It's been only three weeks since omicron hit the news, but the variant is already the country's dominant Covid strain, responsible for 73% of U.S. cases ― including more than 250,000 cases just over the last day (20 Dec), according to Johns Hopkins University.
This is one of many similar stories I've seen. I'll be having my booster before Christmas.
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. In most countries, the number of cases has been rising much faster than the number of deaths and hospitalisations. That's a good sign.
However, in Australia, case numbers are rising rapidly and are likely to continue doing so.
It won't be long before we have only three kinds of people, vaccinated, recovered, and dead.
23 November 2021 ― NT re-opening plan
WA regions with low COVID vaccination rates likely to be closed off from rest of state, Premier says
In a worst case scenario, our whole WA program could go. Hopefully it won't come to that.
- Mark McGowan announces plan for Western Australia to reopen border at 90 per cent COVID-19 vaccination rate
It will become harder for people who can now enter freely.
- Vaccine Resistance Around the World You can push people only so far before they begin to rebel.
- In Romania, Hard-Hit by Covid, Doctors Fight Vaccine Refusal *
An anti-vaccine clarion call by leading religious figures, echoed by prominent politicians and social media, helps explain why Romania now has the world's highest Covid death rate.
- Yes, You'll Want to Vaccinate Your Kids Against Covid. An Expert Explains Why. *
"In the United States, more than six million children have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, and more than 23,500 were hospitalized from it. Over 600 children ages 18 and under have died from the disease, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."
Once Australia re-opens, it's inevitable that more children will catch the disease.
- Just 1.7% of people in PNG are vaccinated against COVID. Why is resistance so fierce?
- Germany debates imposing tighter rules as infections surge *
Nearly 40,000 new cases were registered in the country on Tuesday (9 Nov) ― the third time a daily record has been set within a week. And 236 people died of the disease in that 24-hour period.
- Germany's Fourth Covid Wave: 'A Pandemic of the Unvaccinated' *
Germany once set an example for how to manage the coronavirus. Now, deep pockets of vaccine resistance are helping drive daily infections to new heights.
- Vaccinated vs. Unvaccinated: Europe's Covid Culture War *
In pockets of Europe, vaccine resistance has become the long tail of the populist nationalist movements that shook up European politics for a decade. - Angry and Divided, Austrians Argue Over a Lockdown and Vaccine Mandates *
As a new wave of Covid infections spreads over Europe, resistance to public health measures is growing, and not just in Austria.
- Vaccination and Medical Care ― A Debate We Need To Have
- Australian Vaccination Rate As of 22 November, 85.5% of the over 16s had been fully vaccinated. There is, however, a huge difference between states, ranging from over 95% in the ACT to less than 75% in WA, Qld and the NT. Click here for a link to download the latest vaccination figures.
And, don't forget, the under 16's may not be affected much themselves but, they can catch it and spread it. Overall, just over 63% of the 12-15 year olds are fully vaccinated (huge difference between states ― 36% to 95%). None or almost none of the under 12's are.
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. As of 22 November, Australia had had 9046 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. The numbers have been fairly stable for the past two weeks.
If you look at the Updated Statistics table above and look at the vaccination rate, you can easily see how the rate has been slowing in most countries. Every country has some degree of vaccination resistence. In some countries, it's massive.
27 October 2021 ― NT re-opening plan
- Our Our latest Stop Press file has details of the new system for people coming from red zones. Unless something changes it won't work for people wanting to go bush. Click the link and see for yourself.
- One of the best stories ever to go into this blog.
The Big Quit is from the NY Times Coronavirus blog, 23 October 2021. I thought this was so good, almost as applicable to Australia as it is to the US, that I put it in this link so everyone can see it.
- Booster rollout could start next week after Pfizer trial shows high protection
- Victoria AMA says Covid-deniers and anti-vaxxers should opt out of public health system and 'let nature run its course'
Hospital system is already under pressure and will get worse as restrictions lift, state AMA president says
Some go further and say that unvaccinated people should automatically be excluded from the public health system if they get covid
- Deaths among the double vaccinated: what is behind the Australian statistics?
A small number of people become severely unwell with Covid even if they are fully vaccinated, but the data suggests they mostly suffer from other conditions as well
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. As of 26 October, Australia had had 14,839 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. Numbers have been relatively stable for the last two weeks. What happens as things re-open is another question.
- Vaccination Rate As of 25 October, 74.1% of the over 16s had been fully vaccinated. Click here for a link to download the latest vaccination figures.
And, don't forget, the under 16's may not be affected much themselves but, they can catch it and spread it. Overall, just over 36% of the 12-15 year olds are fully vaccinated (huge difference between states ― 13% to 65%). None or almost none of the under 12's are. In Australia, more people under the age of 10 have been diagnosed with Covid than in any ten year age group from 40-49 up.
9 November 2021 ― NT re-opening plan
- Covid & kids. While they haven't been badly affected, children under ten have had more covid infections than people in their 40s, 60s or 60 & over. It is almost inevitable that they will continue to spread it to their unvaccinated elders.
- Children Drive Britain's Longest-Running Covid Surge *
- Yes, You'll Want to Vaccinate Your Kids Against Covid. An Expert Explains Why. *
"In the United States, more than six million children have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, and more than 23,500 were hospitalized from it. Over 600 children ages 18 and under have died from the disease, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."
Once Australia re-opens, it's inevitable that more children will catch the disease.
- Covid Shots Are a Go for Children, but Parents Are Reluctant to Consent *
Vaccinating 5- to 11-year-olds could be a big step toward returning to normal life in the U.S., but even parents who got the shot are worried about how it might affect their kids.
- I don't think Australia has considered vaccinating the under 12s. We might have to think about it.
- How to talk to your child about a COVID diagnosis ... and share the news with others
If you have unvaccinated children, this is the most important story in this blog.
- Covid is here to stay.
- Re-opening to the World
- Some unvaccinated Australians won't be able to browse in the shops until 2023. That's a worry
"The question arises about what kinds of force, especially by states, are morally acceptable. When do the limitations on a person's freedom of movement or association go too far, morally speaking?"
"In the current circumstances, however, it would seem excluding unvaccinated people from non-essential retail is not morally justifiable."
Just another government power grab?
- Vaccination Rate As of 7 November, 80.6% of the over 16s had been fully vaccinated. There is, however, a huge difference between states, ranging from over 95% in the AXT to less than 67% in WA and the NT. Click here for a link to download the latest vaccination figures.
And, don't forget, the under 16's may not be affected much themselves but, they can catch it and spread it. Overall, just over 52% of the 12-15 year olds are fully vaccinated (huge difference between states ― 13% to 65%). None or almost none of the under 12's are.
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. As of 18 October, Australia had had 9576 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. The numbers have been declining but what happens as things re-open is another question.
19 October 2021 ― As I said in the last blog, most of us will catch Covid.
Those of us who have been vaccinated are unlikely to get very sick.
- Australia could see Covid surge from new variants even after 80% vaccination when border reopens
Modelling shows increased risk of outbreaks if a mutation similar to the transmissibility of Delta were to circulate with international arrivals.
- 'Impressive data': Push to fast-track COVID pill that appears to cut deaths by half
The article has some other good bits about mandatory vaccinations.
- The Unvaccinated May Not Be Who You Think *
About the US, not entirely applicable to Australia but there are some similarities.
- Planning international travel? Qantas International Schedule Doesn't Add Up
Qantas (and other airlines) can't run all the flights they are offering even if they get bookings.
- Why Jacinda Ardern's 'clumsy' leadership response to Delta could still be the right approach
"Asking people to adjust to efforts to achieve the least-worst outcome possible from a range of unpalatable options may not be the easiest path to political popularity. But it is arguably what responsible leaders do."
- Why we must not allow COVID to become endemic in New Zealand
The author has a persuasive argument, but the reality is the only way to keep it from becoming endemic is even stricter controls and possibly never re-opening the country to the outside world.
- No, COVID-19 vaccines don't affect womens fertility
"Some women are holding off on being vaccinated against COVID-19 because of concerns the jab could affect their fertility, at times taking to social media to voice their concerns. Anti-vaccination campaigners appear to be fuelling these fears and misleading women into thinking the vaccine may affect their chance of getting pregnant now or in future, or increase their risk of a miscarriage."
Links to a number of other interesting articles.
- The Lighter Side of Covid Part 2
More cartoons. The last one is my favourite. Thanks John Estbergs for sending them.
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. As of 18 October, Australia had had 15,797 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. Numbers have been relatively stable for the last two weeks. What happens as things re-open is another question.
- Vaccination Rate As of 18 October, 69.2% of the over 16s had been fully vaccinated. Click here for a link to download the latest vaccination figures.
And, don't forget, the under 16's may not be affected much themselves but, they can catch it and spread it. Overall, almost 24% of the 12-15 year olds are fully vaccinated (huge difference between states). None or almost none of the under 12's are.
5 October 2021 ― Most of us will catch Covid.
Those of us who have been vaccinated are unlikely to get very sick.
- Breakthrough Infections
- Covid Thoughts ― Most Of Us Will Catch It
Covid is spreading through highly vaccinated populations. Thought provoking. Highly recommended.
- Why are we seeing more COVID cases in fully vaccinated people? An expert explains.
• "People with breakthrough infections can go on to infect others. Preliminary evidence indicates immunised people can have high levels of virus in the nose, potentially as high as unvaccinated people."
• "If you're fully vaccinated and have merely fleeting contact with a positive case, you likely won't breathe in much virus and therefore are unlikely to develop symptomatic infection."
• "Breakthrough infections likely confer extra protection for people who've been fully vaccinated ― almost like a booster dose."
- WA health minister Roger Cook flags mask wearing, capacity limits once hard border comes down
The WA health minister said, "In 'due course' there would also be limits on the freedoms of people who were unvaccinated against COVID-19, but would not put a date on such a decision.
- How contagious is Delta? How long are you infectious? Is it more deadly? A quick guide to the latest science
• "there is often a gap between when a person becomes infectious to others to when they show symptoms."
• "In Australia, over the life of the pandemic, 1.4% of people with COVID-19 have died from it, compared with 1.6% in the United States and 1.8% in the United Kingdom."
• Data from the United States shows people who were vaccinated were ten times less likely than those who weren't to die from the virus.
- Biden Is Right: Vaccine Refusal 'Has Cost All of Us' *
"vaccine resisters carry on about violations of their freedom, ignoring the fact that they don't live in a bubble, and that their decision to stay unvaccinated infringes on everyone else's freedom ― the freedom to move around the country, the freedom to visit safely with friends and family, the freedom to stay alive."
- The Lighter Side of Covid
Cartoons from America but they apply to some extent in Australia. Thanks Fred Schmidt for sending them.
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. As of 4 October, Australia had had 8334 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. It seems to be slowing down, but will probably get worse again as things re-open.
- Vaccination Rate As of 3 October, 56.9% of the over 16s had been fully vaccinated. Click here for a link to download the latest vaccination figures.
And, don't forget, the under 16's may not be affected much themselves but, they can catch it and spread it.
8 Septermber 2021 ― Time to get real.
The first and second links below are especially important.
- Reopening
- Australia on track to live with Covid from early 2022, leading epidemiologist says
Delta has prompted 'long overdue discussions' on our tolerance for serious illness and hospital capacity, Prof Catherine Bennett says
• "The transition plan's release should have signalled that it was time, if not way past time, for discussion on Australia's tolerance for serious illness, and hospital and intensive care unit capacity, and therefore should have agreed limits to guide the detail in the plan as it is rolled out," Bennett wrote.
• "Instead, some leaders have retreated into a protectionist position of zero tolerance. Our confidence in the path out of our current situation, in which more than half of the Australian population is affected by lockdowns, is also not helped by the realisation that we are shifting into our transition from a very un-Covid-zero position."
• "states and territories have to move beyond "... those uncomfortable questions about how many Covid-19 deaths we are willing to tolerate, with zero cases Australia wide no longer an option, even for the most risk averse".
- Virologist Eddie Holmes lays out how COVID will likely shape our lives in the years to come
It's not going away. We have to learn to live with it.
- WA Premier Mark McGowan wants 90 per cent jab rate before reopening borders
West Australian Premier Mark McGowan says he won't reopen borders until the state reaches this vaccination figure ― and it could be months off.
90% is not going to happen. Maybe he's saying he wants to keep the border closed forever and secede from Australia.
- An Impossible Task? New Zealand Tries to Eliminate Delta. *
- Covid Deaths Surge Across a Weary America as a Once-Hopeful Summer Ends *
Cases are starting to fall in some hard-hit Southern states, but nearly half of Americans are not fully vaccinated, allowing the Delta variant to persist.
Hopefully we'll never get to that stage, but the worst is yet to come.
- Vaccination
- Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. As of 8 September, Australia had had 10,398 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. NSW accounted for 9614 of them, Victoria 691, the ACT 88. Qld and SA has 5 between them. We've had 58 deaths since 30 August. Things are likely to get worse before they get better.
- Vaccination Rate As of 7 September, just under 40% of the over 16s had been fully vaccinated. Click here for a link to download the latest vaccination figures.
1 September 2021 ― So much we still don't know.
We seem to be hard wired to demand answers, even when there are no answers to be had.
Vaccination
Updated Statistics ― click to see the spreadsheet. As of 31 August, Australia had had 7929 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. NSW accounted for 7474 of them. The ACT and Victoria accounted for all one of the rest. Things are likely to get worse before they get better.
Vaccination Rate Jumps areound too much to see a trend. Click here for a link to download the latest vaccination figures.
24 August 2021 ― You are probably going to catch covid.
You may not even know you've got it if you've been vaccinated but, for most of us, it's coming.
- I'll start with a story from a fully-vaccinated person who caught it.
"Symptoms were pretty mild on Day 1. Day 2, the body aches were getting out of control, and I didn't get to sleep until 2:30 am. Day 3, the cough started to kick in. Day 4 more of the same. Day 5, started getting my energy back. Day 6, today, close to back to normal."
"It really doesn't feel much worse than a bad cold, except you have this knowledge that this thing kills people, so you always have that in the back of your mind. Even if it's a 1 in 1,000 chance, one in a thousand really isn't that great. So it's been a little stressful."
- Zero Covid ― No Way!
- Zero COVID 'just not possible', NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says
- Should we give up on COVID-zero? Until most of us are vaccinated, we can't live with the virus
But what happens if a large number don't want to be vaccinated? We can't keep locking down forever. If that happens, we'll have no choice but to live with it. There is little doubt that the continuing lockdowns are hurting some peoples' physical ane emotional health more than they'd have been affected if they had caught the disease.
- Why I no longer think we can eliminate COVID ― public health expert
Accepting that COVID-19 will become endemic ― as many already are ― and preparing for that eventuality may be the only realistic endgame strategy for all countries. As such, countries with low levels of infection and immunity, like Australia and New Zealand, should urgently immunise their populations. This is key if they want to avoid the considerable COVID-19 mortality and morbidity seen in Europe and the Americas.
But once this is done, continuing with recurrent lockdowns could be both socioeconomically disruptive and challenging to maintain public support for. Together with the virus being more transmissible, the near impossibility of having completely closed off borders long term, and the fact that other countries aren't pursuing zero COVID, these factors likely will make completely eliminating the virus unachievable.
- Israel today may give us a glimpse of our near future.
- COVID vaccine certificates can be forged within 10 minutes due to 'obvious'security flaw
If this bug can't be fixed ASAP, you can forget about more travel freedom for those who have been vaccinated. Hopefully, other countries are doing better.
- Is Australia still the lucky country?
"The Australian government has enforced the most stringent curbs on movement of any democratic country in the world. Its punishing international travel ban, which includes blocking Australians from leaving the continent, has been likened to North Korea. So what's been happening, and why does it really matter?"
"No easy answers. A democratic government pledges to protect its citizens, but what happens when citizens disagree on what constitutes safety and security? For some, it means keeping a brutal disease out of the country at all costs. For others, it's the assurance of being allowed to return home at a time of need."
Updated Statistics. As of 24 August, Australia had had 5561 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. NSW accounted for 5133 of them. The ACT and Victoria accounted for all but two of the rest. Unless the vaccination rate jumps dramatically, we may still be facing lockdowns at Christmas.
Vaccination Rate Down substantially since 20 August. Click here for a link to download the latest vaccination figures.
21 August 2021 ― Sydney will not be back to anything resembling normal until the vaccination rate is a lot higher.
- COVID Consumer Headache
The author says, "The smart thing has always been to rely on the American consumer's willingness to spend. My job is to ask the uncomfortable questions. What if the entire COVID crisis has changed the willingness of the American consumer to spend just like the Great Depression did to our grandparents? I am not saying it has, but those high savings rates pictured above were certainly different from the past."
I ask, "Why can't we create an economy that doesn't depend on ever more consumption, people spending money they don't have to buy things they don't need."
The article above has links to two others, both of which are well worth reading.
- The Evolution of Covid is not random.
"in direct-contact diseases such as colds, mild strains will do better than nasty ones, because they send you out to work and to parties, coughing and sneezing. Insect-borne or water-borne diseases, meanwhile, may actually spread better if they confine you delirious to a deathbed with a high pathogen load, the better to attract mosquitoes or (sorry) maximise your contribution to local sewers."
- From Scientific American, A Tsunami of Disability Is Coming as a Result of 'Long COVID'
We need to plan for a future where millions of survivors are chronically ill
"An increasing number of studies find that greater than one fourth of patients have developed some form of long COVID. (In one study from China, three quarters of patients had at least one ongoing symptom six months after hospital discharge, and in another report more than half of infected health care workers had symptoms seven to eight months later.) Initial indications suggest that the likelihood of developing persistent symptoms may not be related to the severity of the initial illness; it is even conceivable that infections that were initially asymptomatic could later cause persistent problems.
- Vaccination
- Vaccine Effectiveness Against Infection May Wane, C.D.C. Studies Find *
Federal health officials said the new data justified a campaign of booster shots. But some scientists disagreed, saying not every American needs another dose.
- How to Vaccinate Almost Everyone
You have a right not to be vaccinated but you don't have a right to have others pay for your problems if that choice means you get ill. The idea here is from America. It would work just as well here ― we just need a few politicians have the nerve to make the suggestion.
- Those Anti-Covid Plastic Barriers Probably Don't Help and May Make Things Worse.
Clear barriers have sprung up at restaurants, nail salons and school classrooms, but most of the time, they do little to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
I'm not sure how much of this there is in Australia but worth noting.
- Finally,
- As of 20 August, Australia had had 3999 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. NSW accounted for 3715 of them. The ACT and Victoria accounted for almost all of the rest. Unless the vaccination rate jumps dramatically, we'll still be facing lockdowns at Christmas.
- Good News. More than 300,000 vaccinations on 20 August. Click here for a link to download the latest vaccination figures.
18 August 2021 ― It looks as if it will be months before Sydney as back to anything resembling normal.
- Whitney Tilson's Coronavirus Update, 14 August
I'm not the only one doing a Covid blog. This one is one of the best summations I've seen. It's from America but applies just as well in Australia. Highly recommended.
• "As we struggle to overcome the misinformation that has led a third of our population down the anti-vax rabbit hole so they'll get their first shot, the rest of us will soon be getting our third shots I confidently predict."
• "If you get vaccinated, then your odds of getting a symptomatic case of COVID-19 are less than 1 in 1,000 ― and your odds of dying are less than 1 in 100,000!"
• "While there's "only" a roughly half of one percent chance you die, there's a 10-30% chance that you suffer long-term long COVID symptoms like fatigue and/or brain fog. In other words, right now you have a 5-15% chance of a REALLY bad, life-ruining outcome vs a roughly 1-in-100,000 chance of a similarly bad outcome if you get vaxxed."
• Your belief that, because you're being careful, you're highly unlikely to catch COVID, is seriously mistaken. The Delta variant has shifted the odds significantly against you. I'd give 50/50 odds that if you don't get vaxxed, you're gonna get it."
- Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca "Infectious disease experts say Australia's COVID experience will become a "pandemic of the unvaccinated", as the Delta strain's high infection rate ― even among vaccinated people ― turns achieving herd immunity into an "impossibility".
• "Current numbers from NSW show of the 66 people in ICU, 59 are not vaccinated and seven have had one dose. No one currently in ICU or requiring ventilation has been fully vaccinated."
• I think it's almost inevitable that almost all of us will catch covid at some point. The difference is that virtually all of those who get seriously ill or die will be those who haven't been vaccinated.
- How does COVID affect the brain? Two neuroscientists explain
The risk of long COVID is no longer thought to be directly linked with either age or the initial severity of the COVID illness. So younger people, and people with initially mild COVID, can still develop long-COVID symptoms.
- Inside a Covid I.C.U., Hopes Fade as Patients Surge In *
Doctors and nurses in a Florida hospital thought the onslaught of coronavirus admissions had ended. Now they need more intensive care beds.
With our low vaccination rate, we could face the same if we let it get away.
- Covid Vaccines Produced in Africa Are Being Exported to Europe *
Johnson & Johnson is sending shots from South Africa to other parts of the world. African countries are waiting for most of the doses they've ordered.
This is one of the reasons why the problems will only get worse. And one of the reasons that the world is heading for a major reset.
- Updated Statistics. As of 18 August, Australia had had 3035 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. NSW accounted for 2769 of them. The ACT has joined Melbourne in having a moderately serious problem. Unless the vaccination rate jumps dramatically, we'll still be facing lockdowns at Christmas.
10 August 2021 ― It looks as if it will be months before Sydney as back to anything resembling normal.
- Delta Disaster Continues
- Iceland Covid-19 outbreak: Cases spike in world's most vaccinated country
With vaccination rates well above 80 per cent, Iceland has become a case study for the rest of the world. But the Delta strain is causing problems.With vaccination rates well above 80 per cent, Iceland has become a case study for the rest of the world. But the Delta strain is causing problems.
"Early indications are that the much-desired goal of vaccination-induced herd immunity remains out of reach. But it is limiting hospitalisation and death."
- We can't rely solely on arbitrary vaccination levels to end lockdowns. Here are 7 ways to fix Sydney's outbreak
Delta is acquired and transmitted by children. This means only vaccinating 70% of over-16s will leave our kids vulnerable to COVID outbreaks. In the absence of public health measures, these children will pass it on to their friends and families.
While the risk of death from COVID, even with Delta, is lower among children than adults, there's still a risk of long-term health consequences called "long COVID" among the young (and old).
Researchers dispute how common long COVID is in kids. But a study of children in Italy who have had COVID reported more than half had at least one symptom lasting more than four months, and more than 40% had a health problem due to long COVID that impaired their daily activities.
- The Delta Variant Is Sending More Children to the Hospital. Are They Sicker, Too? *
"A confluence of factors ― including Delta's contagiousness and the fact that people under 12 are not yet eligible to be vaccinated ― is sending more children to the hospital, especially in areas of the country where the virus is surging.
This story is from America, but Australia has had a lot of school transmission. We could face something similar.
- The End of the Pandemic
- Ed Yong on the pandemic's future
Ed Yong, a science journalist at The Atlantic, who recently won a Pulitzer Prize in explanatory reporting for his work on the pandemic, reflects on the past 18 months and reflects on what lies ahead.
- I want this pandemic to end ― yet I secretly pine for another lockdown
For some of us, living with Covid the past 18 months gave us permission to slow down, and to re-evaluate how we want to live when this is finally over.
Makes you think. Well worth the read.
- How will the pandemic end? The science of past outbreaks offers clues.
The answer depends on many factors, perhaps the most critical being the global nature of the crisis.
If society attempts to declare an end to the pandemic before science does, we'd be accepting its severe outcomes ― including death. That's often been the case with past pandemics. The flu is no longer considered a pandemic and is now an endemic disease; between 12,000 and 61,000 people in the U.S. still die from the flu each year, based on CDC estimates. "If we can bring the death count down to a certain level and resume our lives normally, one could say the pandemic has 'ended.'"
- Misc
- China pledges 2 billion vaccines globally through year's end
Hundreds of millions of Chinese shots have been administered to people both in China and around the world. However, there are concerns about whether they protect adequately against the highly transmissible delta variant.
In Indonesia and Thailand, which have relied heavily on Sinovac's shot, the governments are planning to give a booster shot of the Moderna vaccine to health workers after reports that some had died despite being fully vaccinated with the Chinese shot.
- Younger adults can get very sick and die from COVID too. Here's what the data tell us
A recent Norwegian study looked at people aged 16-30 who had COVID-19 but hadn't needed hospital treatment. It found after six months, 52% had persistent symptoms including loss of taste or smell, fatigue, breathlessness or impaired concentration.
- Australia's vaccination plan is 6 months too late and a masterclass in jargon
The most striking feature of the plan is the array of new structures it imposes, such as new committees or "cells". These are on top of the complicated array that already exists and the many stakeholders.
Bureaucrats win. Public loses.
- Updated Statistics. As of 9 August, Australia had had 1973 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. NSW accounted for 1746 of them. The other states may bring their outbreaks under control but it looks as if it will be months before NSW manages to control the current outbreak. In many countries, including Australia and New Zealand, the rate of vacination has been slowing. If that trend continues, it will be even longer before we get back to something resembling pre-covid normal.
- Delta Disaster
-
Is Delta defeating us? Here's why the variant makes contact tracing so much harder
"NSW Health reports that when they start contact tracing, they are finding almost 100% of household members already infected, compared with about 30% last year. In South Australia it was reported people are getting infected and already infectious within 24 hours of exposure."
- Why the Delta Variant Could End Australia's Pursuit of 'Covid Zero' *
The country's current outbreak bears a warning: Without much more widespread vaccinations, the usual tactics of lockdowns and blanket testing may no longer be enough.
"Contact tracers have found video footage showing one case of transmission in a Sydney department store, when the man who started the outbreak simply walked by someone else. Delivery drivers have also passed on the virus with brief interactions, and health officials have warned that, in most households, one person with Delta typically leads to infection for everyone."
"Throughout Sydney's current outbreak, there have never been more than three people in intensive care, while 12 million Australians have been locked down."
This article was on 2 July. By 23 July the current outbreak had left 5 dead (2 in their 90s, 2 in their 70s, 1 in her 50s), 35 in intensive care, 138 others in hospital.
- Sydney's lockdown could become 'permanent' until widespread vaccination, economists warn, as fears of a recession emerge
- How Nations Are Learning to 'Let It Go' and Live With Covid *
"More officials are encouraging people to return to their daily rhythms and transition to a new normal. But scientists warn that it may be too soon to design exit strategies for the pandemic."
"The emergence of more transmissible variants means that even wealthy nations with abundant vaccines, including the United States, remain vulnerable. Places like Australia, which shut down its border, are learning that they cannot keep the virus out.'
"So rather than abandon their road maps, officials are beginning to accept that rolling lockdowns and restrictions are a necessary part of recovery. People are being encouraged to shift their pandemic perspective and focus on avoiding severe illness and death instead of infections, which are harder to avoid. And countries with zero-Covid ambitions are rethinking those policies."
- Vaccine Tales
- Is the COVID vaccine rollout the greatest public policy failure in recent Australian history?
"Only 13% of Australia's eligible population (those aged 16 and above) are fully vaccinated, while 35.3% are partially vaccinated. That's a long way short of the goal of a fully inoculated adult population by October 2021, as initially promised.
Exacerbating these problems has been the lack of an effective public education campaign about the vaccine. This has left a vacuum, which anti-vaxxers and the vaccine-hesitant have filled." It's improved a bit since the article was published but our vaccination rate remains abysmal.
- The NSW government has only used 15% of its allocation of the AstraZeneca vaccine
Just 145,000 of the almost 1m doses allocated by federal government have been taken up, leaving jabs to stockpile or be donated overseas
- We're paying companies millions to roll out COVID vaccines. But we're not getting enough bang for our buck
To date, vaccine rollout efforts have been clearly inadequate. Government planning has not involved all the possible players and there was no attempt to involve the states and territories in a concerted national effort. Companies have been contracted to give overlapping advice and to provide services where that expertise already exists."
- Why Vaccinated People Are Getting 'Breakthrough' Infections *
The vaccines are effective at preventing serious illness and death, but they are not a golden shield against the coronavirus.
In the US, "More than 97 percent of people hospitalized for Covid-19 are unvaccinated."
- Finally, a quote from America where vaccines are readily available
"One thing I can't figure out about this recent surge in cases is .... why do we care? Vaccines are widely available. If you don't get vaccinated and you get sick, whose fault is this but your own? Why are we talking about locking everything down again? It makes no sense.
When we finally get to a reasonable level of vaccinations, I and a large number of other Australians will probably agree with those sentiments.
- As European nations look to national health passes, can the U.S. learn any lessons? *
To participate in public life, people in those countries must prove they have been vaccinated or had a negative test within the last 48 hours.
It applies just as much to Australia. Is this our future?
- Updated Statistics. As of 23 July, Australia had had 889 cases of community transmission in the past 7 days. NSW accounted for 752 of them. Victoria and South Australia may manage to get things under control reasonably soon but it will be a long time before NSW manages to control the current outbreak.
20 July 2021 ― It may get worse before it gets better.
- Victoria's 5-day lockdown may not quash Delta. Here's what our modelling predicts instead
"we predict at least 30 days of restrictions will be needed before Victoria reaches three days without community transmission."
- Australia's new vaccination campaign is another wasted opportunity
Australia's new vaccination campaign is another wasted opportunity
Has links to ads from other countries. Hard to believe just how incompetent our politicians and bureaucrats are. Or is someone sneakily trying to keep people from getting vaccinated.
Singapore was held up as a good example of vaccine advertising. If you click the link to the statistics table in the last entry this time, you'll see just how much more effective their campaign was.
- Aged care workers keen for Covid jab are being hampered by Australia's 'messy rollout'
Anglicare says the federal government is trying to shift blame for low vaccination rates to workers
Article includes a damning statistic, "Australia remains last in the OECD for its vaccination rate."
- In France, angry protests, rising infections and record vaccinations. *
"President Emmanuel Macron's tough new vaccination strategy will restrict access to restaurants, cafes, movie theatres, long-distance trains and more for the unvaccinated."
"It made for a striking split-screen image as millions lined up for vaccines ― so desperately sought in much of the world suffering outbreaks but with little access to doses ― as an increasingly strident group from both the far left and far right decried Mr. Macron's policies as government overreach."
"polls show broad support for Mr. Macron's muscular strategy, which also plans to force people who test positive to self-isolate for 10 days, to make vaccination mandatory for health workers ― who will face suspension of pay or even dismissal by the fall if they don't get their shots ― and to stop widespread free testing.
- The Pandemic Has a New Epicenter: Indonesia *
The suffering that ravaged places like India and Brazil ― with deaths soaring, hospitals overwhelmed and oxygen running out ― has reached Southeast Asia.
"She is a doctor and she is afraid to go to a hospital because she knows the situation," Ms. Nyimas said. "There are many instances where patients do not get beds or oxygen. If we go to the hospital, we have to bring our own oxygen."
Indonesia has also relied heavily on the Chinese Sinovac vaccine, which has proved less effective than other shots. At least 20 Indonesian doctors who were fully vaccinated with Sinovac have died from the virus.
- Could Britain be sued for reopening and putting the world at risk from new COVID variants?
"European Court of Human Rights case law establishes that the duty to protect life includes a requirement on states to take reasonable steps if they know (or ought to know) there is a real and immediate risk to life. This has usually involved the criminal actions of dangerous people, but there is no reason it should not cover government policy that rests on an acceptance that people will die."
Agree or disagree, this has implications that go far beyond the immediate future.
- Updated Statistics. Last time, I added a new column showing how long it will take to vaccinate 80% of the population at current rates. Interesting to see how much some countries have changed in a week. A lot of the world will be open to international travel long before we are unless something changes. Hopefully the new vaccine supplies will bring that change.
16 July 2021 ― How much worse can it get?
6 July 2021 ― Vaccination Special
- Australia has not learned the lessons of its bungled COVID vaccine rollout
As the table at the end of this section shows, Australia and New Zealand lag behind most of the developed world in getting people vaccinated.
- 80% vaccination won't get us herd immunity, but it could mean safely opening international borders
The key trick, though, is to not think of vaccination as the only intervention. It is vaccination ― together with three other measures: ongoing aggressive contact tracing, mask-wearing in high-risk settings and some physical distancing ― that will make it safe to open.
Put another way, even when we immunise all Australians who want to be protected against COVID-19, we're unlikely to achieve herd immunity through vaccination alone.
"Given the Delta variant means an average infected person infects five others without any other measures in place, and given vaccines are not perfect, Australia would need 90% of adults and children vaccinated to achieve herd immunity (through vaccination alone). This is unlikely."
Lockdowns should become shorter and less frequent but they are still likely for the next year.
- Should I get my second AstraZeneca dose? Yes, it almost doubles your protection against Delta
- Two-thirds of staff at infected Sydney nursing home unvaccinated
How could the various levels of government have allowed this to happen?
I think the answer is summed up in a quote from my last newsletter
"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong."
- Australia's COVID-19 vaccination threshold the 'million-dollar question', with experts differing on the 'way out'
- Updated Statistics. Even populous semi-developed countries like Mexico and Brazil have more than twice the percentage of fully vaccinated people than we do.
23 June 2021
Normally I wouldn't put out a second blog so soon but the surge in NSW stuffed up some of our trips and has implications far beyond the immediate future.
- Chinese port Covid outbreak exacerbates global supply chain delays
One similar story story said the new delta variant was to blame.
- The Delta Variant
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Is the Delta COVID-19 variant more infectious in children than adults? Experts say it's too early to tell
"Many experts believe it could be 50 per cent more transmissible than the Alpha strain, which was already more infectious than the "original" COVID."
"People with the Delta variant tend to infect more of the people living in their household than people with previous strains, according to a government briefing from the United Kingdom."
- Delta coronavirus variant: scientists brace for impact
"The rapid rise of the highly transmissible strain in the United Kingdom has put countries in Europe, North America and Africa on watch."
- Why New Zealand is more vulnerable to a new COVID-19 outbreak than ever before
"New Zealand’s pandemic response and elimination strategy have drawn worldwide attention. At this point, the country remains one of few places in the world without community transmission since the end of February 2021. Countries like Taiwan and Fiji, once also success stories, have seen significant and rapid surges in cases and hospitalisations. What is happening in Taiwan, Fiji and other countries such as Vietnam should be a wake-up call for New Zealand."
- Given our low vaccination rate and the ease with which this variant is transmitted, the only way Australia may be able to avoid a major outbreak is with even stricter lockdowns than we've had before.
- 'One million jabs a day': South-east Asia's race to vaccinate
- Which COVID vaccine is best? Here’s why that’s really hard to answer
"Even if we tried to answer this question, defining which vaccine is “best” is not simple. Does that mean the vaccine better at protecting you from serious disease? The one that protects you from whichever variant is circulating near you? The one that needs fewer booster shots? The one for your age group? Or is it another measure entirely?"
- They Relied on Chinese Vaccines. Now They're Battling Outbreaks. *
More than 90 countries are using Covid shots from China. Experts say recent infections in those places should serve as a cautionary tale in the global effort to fight the disease.
The article also suggests that the AstraZeneca vaccine is less effective than some of the others.
- Updated Statistics. While the numbers remain relatively small, Taiwan is having large percentage increases ― as is much of Africa and SE Asia. The Financial Times, Coronavirus tracked page has an interesting table showing excess deaths around the world. Australia is one of the few to have had fewer deaths than normal.
20 June 2021
The pandemic is far from over.
- Many Post-Covid Patients Are Experiencing New Medical Problems, Study Finds *
An analysis of health insurance records of almost two million coronavirus patients found new issues in nearly a quarter ― including those whose Covid infection was mild or asymptomatic.
- Some places are reopening to international travel.
The European Union Recommends Opening to Americans to Rescue the Summer *
The bloc recommended that its 27 member nations lift a ban on nonessential travel from the United States, but each country will decide for itself.
Given our low vaccination rate, it will be a long time before Australians can travel freely or international visitors from more than a few countries can come here.
- Good news? Long term, this could be a huge improvement.
A Pill to Treat Covid-19? The U.S. Is Betting on It. *
A new $3.2 billion program will support the development of antiviral pills, which could start arriving by the end of this year.
- The official death tolls crom Covid are almost certainly underestimates in most countries. Sometimes they are close to correct. Sometimes they are wildly off.
'You Can't Trust Anyone': Russia's Hidden Covid Toll Is an Open Secret *
The country's official coronavirus death toll is 102,649. But at least 300,000 more people died last year during the pandemic than were reported in Russia's most widely cited official statistics.
If you like statistics, I found the table comparing coutries fascinating. Raises lots of other questions.
- Many Australians are afraid of having the vaccine. This story from The Guardian puts those risks into perspective.
Get ready to scroll: three graphs to help you make sense of the AstraZeneca vaccine risk
"When our brains evolved we didn't have to grapple with risks this small. So we struggle to make sense of them."
- Updated Statistics. Scroll to the latest figures for some interesting insights into how the world is going. India remains terrible. Taiwan had been doing well up until early May, but they hadn't (and still haven't) vaccinated many people. Numbers are increasing dramatically. It will be a long time before any country on my list gets 80-85% of the population vaccinated. That's what seems to be what's needed to get 'herd immunity."
19 May 2021
The pandemic is far from over.
12 April 2021
- Rise of Variants in Europe Shows How Dangerous the Virus Can Be *
The graphic shows just how dramatic the change has been in a relataively short time.
- New variants of COVID-19 are behaving like new viruses and may derail vaccine hopes
Just as the world begins to gain ground in the war against COVID-19, a terrifying development could see us ultimately lose ― with not even vaccines saving us.
- New COVID variants have changed the game, and vaccines will not be enough. We need global 'maximum suppression'
- Two from America.
- Updated Statistics. Why does Mexico have a death rate that is so much higher than most of the rest of the world.
It's worse than these stats show. Mexico's revised COVID death toll is much higher than before
New data showed that more than 321,000 Mexicans have died from COVID, a 60 percent increase from the previous count.
"if the new Mexican government numbers are eventually reflected in the Johns Hopkins count, it would put Mexico just ahead of Brazil (313,866) in global deaths, behind the world fatality leader, the United States (550,371), two countries with much larger populations."
3 April 2021
- 4 ways Australia's COVID vaccine rollout has been bungled
Australia's vaccine rollout has so far been overhyped and under-delivered.
- How the latest COVID cases slipped through in NSW and Queensland ― and what we can do better
This story was written before the latest outbreak. Pity the actions suggested hadn't been put into effect. As far as I know, they still haven't.
- Despite Chile's Speedy Covid-19 Vaccination Drive, Cases Soar *
Experts say Chile's government eased restrictions on travel, business and schools much too early, creating a false sense of confidence that the worst of the pandemic was over.
On the other hand, Chile does not have a particularly good safety net for many of its people. They have to go out and work to survive.
- The Pandemics Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths *
Far more people died in most of these countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 as well as those from other causes, likely including people who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed. These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway
- Covid-Linked Syndrome in Children Is Growing and Cases Are More Severe *
The condition, which usually emerges several weeks after infection, is still rare, but can be dangerous. "A higher percentage of them are really critically ill," one doctor said.
- Covid patients plagued by symptoms months after infection, Australian study shows
About a third of 78 coronavirus patients treated by major Sydney hospital breathless, tired and in pain months later
- My last newsletter came out on 31 March and included a section called More Covid Chaos which has a number of other interesting covid stories
- Updated & New Statistics. Following on from the first story, as of the time the table was done, Australia had given at least one vaccination to only 2% of its population. Chile had managed 33.7%.
28 March 2021
Sooner or later, you ARE going to be exposed to the virus. Eventually, international travel will resume. We can't keep it out forever.
13 March 2021
Lots of vaccine stories this time around. I'll start with the most upbeat one.
24 February 2021
Our latest newsletter went online on 15 February. It has a special offer not available anywhere else and information about how Covid has and will continue to affect our business. Thankfully, we're doing a lot better than many other tour businesses.
The first article below is the most important. If we don't plan now, the next pandemic may be even worse.
- And Then the Gorillas Started Coughing *
Humans are spreading the coronavirus to other animals. What does that mean for all of us?
"Five years from now, when much of the world's population will have been vaccinated against Covid-19 but maybe a billion people won't, either for lack of opportunity or by stubborn refusal, the virus will still be with us. It will circulate among the unvaccinated, sometimes inconspicuously, sometimes causing severe illness or death, and it could also abide among wildlife populations, mutating and evolving in ways no one can predict. If it crosses back from them to us, it may ignite new outbreaks, start us coughing again and even bring with it some ugly genomic innovations."
- A Ripple Effect of Loss: U.S. Covid Deaths Approach 500,000 *
Lots of personal stories which show what much of the rest of the world has been going through.
- Biden Says He's Pro-Science. Why Is His Schools Plan Based on Fear? *
The administration's guidance for sending kids back to the classroom is far too restrictive.
• "A study based on data from Washington State and Michigan found that 'regardless of the underlying spread,' putting more students in classrooms (up to 75 percent of all students, at least) didn't cause more spread in the community. Unicef reported, "Children are more likely to get the virus outside of school settings."
• "Assessing threats rationally involves weighing trade-offs, and the benefit of doubling the desk distance isn't worth the cost.
• The Lancet published a metastudy over the summer finding that staying one meter (about three feet) from an infected individual reduces risk of infection by 80 percent. The second meter is going to have a much smaller effect.
• When community hubs shutter, whether it's schools, churches, main streets or bowling leagues, the cost of lost community is not merely a feeling of loneliness or some sentimental sadness. There is also a deep alienation, with very measurable consequences that show up in fewer marriages, less employment, more drug abuse and deaths of despair.
Some would say that basing a plan on fear is a means to keep the population under ever increasing government control. They may well have a point.
- 'We Are Going to Keep You Safe, Even if It Kills Your Spirit *
For the millions of Americans living with dementia, every day during this pandemic can bring a fresh horror.
The situation was just as bad during the lockdowns in parts of Australia.
- Updated & New Statistics. Fewer countries have had deaths increase faster than new cases. I've included new statistics on vaccinations. Not yet available for all countries but very significant in some.
16 February 2021
Our latest newsletter went online on 15 February. It has information about how Covid has and will continue to affect our business. Thankfully, we're doing a lot better than many other tour businesses.
Has most of the western world over-reacted to the virus? You may disagree with the first article below but it's definitely worth a read.
- Coronavirus lockdown lunacy is frying our minds
• The west, and Australia and New Zealand in particular, are suffering mass psychogenic illness, where only sociology, psychology and the perverse incentives of large welfare states, can explain the ongoing obsession with COVID-19 and our medieval responses to it after almost a year of improved treatments and new information.
• Australia and New Zealand have incurred costs equivalent to a world war — and more than any other nation has — fighting a pandemic that has killed not even 1000 people, with a median age in the mid-80s, between them. And this is widely seen as brilliant.
• Our leaders should level with voters that we can't remain an open liberal society without incurring further deaths and cases from COVID-19. Let vulnerable groups be vaccinated, and let everyone else get on with their life. The three authors, at universities in Spain and Chile, argue that hysteria dissipates more quickly in nations that respect civil liberties, where the minority who wish to behave rationally "can just ignore the collective panic and continue to live their normal lives", illustrating to the hysterical majority that they too can safely return to normal.
• Unfortunately that's not an option in Australia or New Zealand, where the freedoms taken for granted before 2020 — to come and go, see whomever, and privacy — have been sacrificed to the god of "public health".
• Sweden, where deaths from all causes were no higher last year than in 2015, valiantly trudges on, letting Swedes live their lives relatively normally, as the pandemic rule book allows, notwithstanding the fact that every other nation has torn it up.
The original link, Coronavirus lockdown lunacy is frying our minds is behind a paywall.
- The author of the above refers to an article in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. It's longer but has a lot more detail.
COVID-19 and the Political Economy of Mass Hysteria
• "we analyze a more fundamental question, namely, the role of the modern welfare state in mass hysteria."
• collective hysteria may be exacerbated by a powerful welfare state for several reasons.
• the state may actively want to instill fear in the population, thereby contributing to the making of mass hysteria. Illustrating this point is the leakage of an internal paper of the German Department of the Interior during the first weeks of the COVID-19 crisis [101]. In the paper, the state experts recommended that the government should instill fear in the German population.
• In the link above, you have to click to see the graphs and tables. This Covid Hysteria PDF is the full document including graphs. There are definitely some valid points to consider.
- Rhode Island Kept Its Schools Open. This Is What Happened. *
• Some teachers and students got sick. Principals had to improvise constantly. But it worked — mostly.
• three sets of data — some confirming the effectiveness of careful safety precautions in schools, some pointing toward the devastating inadequacy of remote education — capture the magnitude of the losses suffered as school boards, teachers, families and administrators wrestled with how much risk they could tolerate or how well they thought they could mitigate it. — A whole generation scarred.
• "If you look at the risk that children who go virtual will be left behind — get behind academically, suffer from severe mental-health issues, suffer from food insecurity, suffer from abuse and neglect — it's 100 percent. One-hundred percent certainty."
- Updated Statistics. The vaccine rollout continues. New cases are increasing at a slower rate in most countries on my list but deaths are increasing at a faster rate than new cases in several of them.
9 February 2021
Our next newsletter, due out within a week, will have more on how Covid has and will continue to affect our business. Thankfully, we're doing a lot better than many other tour businesses.
- Bad news on vaccines.
- Oxford Covid vaccine has 10% efficacy against South African variant, study suggests
Small-scale trial of vaccine shows it offers very little protection against mild to moderate infection.
- Supply-Chain Risks For The COVID-19 Vaccine
This is from a financial newsletter. Scroll down to the Supply chain risk to go direct to the relevant bit.
"There is an even more basic worry: that vaccine makers will simply miss their production targets. In 2018, the world produced less than 5bn vaccine doses of all types, including general vaccines, the oral polio vaccine and seasonal flu shots. Now the goal is to produce more than double that amount of just Covid-19 vaccines annually, often using novel technologies, and distribute them under unforgiving conditions. Last week, AstraZeneca reportedly told the European Union that it might deliver only half of the doses that it expected in the first quarter. Interviews with companies across the vaccine supply chain make clear that such production shortfalls could easily keep happening."
- A new side effect.
New diabetes cases linked to covid-19 **
Researchers don't understand exactly how the disease might trigger Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes, or whether the cases are temporary or permanent. But 14 percent of those with severe covid-19 developed a form of the disorder, one analysis found.
- China and Covid
- Updated Statistics. The good news is that new case numbers are dropping around the world. The bad news is that the new mutations mentioned above may change that.
2 February 2021
- How the Search for Covid-19 Treatments Faltered While Vaccines Sped Ahead *
Vaccine development exceeded everyone's expectations. But the next few months will still bring many sick people — and doctors have woefully few drugs with which to treat them.
- Supply-Chain Risks For The COVID-19 Vaccine
This is from a financial newsletter. Scroll down to the Supply chain risk to go direct to the relevant bit.
"There is an even more basic worry: that vaccine makers will simply miss their production targets. In 2018, the world produced less than 5bn vaccine doses of all types, including general vaccines, the oral polio vaccine and seasonal flu shots. Now the goal is to produce more than double that amount of just Covid-19 vaccines annually, often using novel technologies, and distribute them under unforgiving conditions. Last week, AstraZeneca reportedly told the European Union that it might deliver only half of the doses that it expected in the first quarter. Interviews with companies across the vaccine supply chain make clear that such production shortfalls could easily keep happening."
- Vaccine Offers Strong Protection but Fuels Concern About Variants *
"The vaccine's efficacy rate dropped from 72 percent in the United States to just 57 percent in South Africa, where a highly contagious variant is driving most cases."
- As Virus Grows Stealthier, Vaccine Makers Reconsider Battle Plans *
Vaccines by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech effectively protect recipients. But in a worrying sign, they are slightly less effective against a variant found in South Africa.
- U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Falling, but Variants Could Erase Progress *
New daily cases are starting to slow in what some health experts see as a turning point. But they warn of a bumpy vaccination rollout amid the emergence of more contagious variants.
- Two from the New Scientist
- Updated Statistics. Two weeks this time since I missed a week. The trends continue much as before. But, in an increasing number of countries, deaths are now increasing at a faster rate than new cases.
23 January 2021
- Denmark is sequencing all coronavirus samples and has an alarming view of the U.K. variant **
Cases involving the variant are increasing 70 percent a week in Denmark, despite a strict lockdown.
In a long Facebook post last week, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told people to imagine sitting in the top row of Copenhagen's Parken Stadium, a soccer arena with a capacity of 38,000 people. A dripping tap is filling it up, one drop the first minute, two drops the second, four drops the third. At that rate, Frederiksen said, the park will be filled in 44 minutes. But it will seem almost empty for the first 42 minutes, she said. "The point is that one only discovers that the water has risen when it is almost too late," she wrote.
- Allergic Reactions Including Anaphylaxis After Receipt of the First Dose of Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine — United States, December 21, 2020 - January 10, 2021
10 cases among the first 4 million doses — seems like good odds to me.
- Could a Smell Test Screen People for Covid? *
A new modelling study hints that odor-based screens could quash outbreaks. But some experts are skeptical it would work in the real world.
- Almost 30% of Covid patients in England readmitted to hospital after discharge
Readmission rate for Covid patients 3.5 times greater, and death rate seven times higher, than for other hospital patients. Of the 47,780, 29.4% were readmitted within 140 days of discharge and 12.3% died. The rate of readmission was 3.5 times greater, and the death rate seven times higher, than those in the control group, the researchers found.
The risk of post-discharge illness — such as respiratory conditions, diabetes and problems with the heart, liver and kidneys — in Covid-19 patients was higher compared with the control group. That risk was also greater in younger and ethnic minority individuals compared with those aged 70 and above and white people.
- How British Scientists Found the More Infectious Coronavirus Variant *
Back in March, researchers decided to routinely record the genetic sequences of the virus they found, giving them a powerful tool for tracking mutations.
-
The U.S. is requiring covid-19 tests for international entry. Experts say the approach is flawed. **
"even with the travel bans staying, experts say that the new U.S. entry requirement, which allows for less-accurate rapid antigen tests, is not as robust as other countries' testing protocols — and coronavirus-infected travelers could make it past testing barriers and onto planes undetected. There have been such cases in New Zealand, Hawaii and, most recently, Australia."
- Updated Statistics. The trends continue much as before. But in some countries, deaths are now increasing at a faster rate than new cases.
14 January 2021
The vaccine rollout will take months, and then we will see where we are. Remember, COVID doesn't go away. It does go from pandemic to endemic. And it does mutate.
- The Ireland Event
Quote from the author, "Last week I became consumed by a new twist on all this — Covid numbers that were being largely ignored. Insane infection numbers coming out of UK and Ireland, apparently driven by a new virus strain, that we acknowledged over here but didn't seem to be too mussed about. And when I say 'insane infection numbers' I mean a 30x spike in Covid cases in Ireland over the span of two weeks in late December."
The author thinks it is reasonably likely that a series of similar events could hit the US. I had a quick look at the official statistics. Almost a quarter of the kinown cases in Ireland were recorded in the past week.
Highly recommended.
- U.S. Is Blind to Contagious New Virus Variant, Scientists Warn *
It's not too late to curb the contagious variant's spread in the U.S., experts say — but only with a national program for genetic sequencing.
- CDC foresees spread in U.S. of highly contagious coronavirus variant **
- Think it can't happen here? Guess again. Last week I wrote about how ADF members and international guests to skip quarantine facility for Darwin hotel
Sure enough, two of those people (so far) have tested positive. The virus is much more likely to spread from a hotel quarantine than from the out of town quarantine facility. It's places like this which could allow the new, more contagious strain, to get into the community and cause yet more lockdowns.
- On a happier note, Coronavirus shutdowns have quashed nearly all other common viruses **
Unfortunately, scientists say a rebound is coming."
- More good news.
Post-infection coronavirus immunity usually robust after 8 months, study shows **
"The human body typically retains immunity against the coronavirus for at least eight months after infection, an encouraging sign in the fight to end the pandemic."
- A vaccine isn't much good if many people can't get it. Vaccines were a chance to redeem failures in the U.S. coronavirus response. What went wrong? **
I wonder if we'll do better.
- Updated Statistics. The trends continue much as before. I was a bit late collecting some data so the weekly totals are not 100% comparable.
6 January 2021
The vaccine rollout will take months, and then we will see where we are. Remember, COVID doesn't go away. It does go from pandemic to endemic. And it does mutate.
- How Taiwan Plans to Stay (Mostly) Covid-Free *
"The island's success against the coronavirus has created a sinking feeling for many residents: How much longer can their good fortune last?"
Australia is an island. The different states are islands within a larger island. Quarantine rules for international arrivals are not consistent. We'll keep getting more outbreaks like the current ones unless something changes.
- Here's an example of the inconsistencies. ADF members and international guests to skip quarantine facility for Darwin hotel
"Australian and foreign military officials and their families on board an international flight scheduled to land in Darwin today (4 January) will quarantine at an undisclosed local hotel instead of the international quarantine facility at Howard Springs.
- Vaccines. Producing them is only part of the problem.
- Back to normal?
- Updated Statistics. The trends continue much as before. Increasing numbers but the percentage increase is dropping in most places.
- Final thought. What if we had a pandemic as lethal as the 1918 Spanish flu that infected about a third of the world's population and killed about 10% of those infected. It could happen. Picture 250 million dead instead of the 1.5 million from Covid 19. How would we react? How many governments would fall? The mind boggles.
22 December: Bad News For Christmas
- Why Sydney is facing a super-spreading disaster
"Forty new cases today may become 120 new cases by Christmas Day. Half of them will have no symptoms and the rest will have mild symptoms so will carry on as normal. The peak infectiousness of this virus is very early in the infection, before symptoms appear, making Christmas Day a ticking time bomb."
- I Traced My Covid-19 Bubble and It's Enormous *
And if you have kids, yours probably is, too.
This is from America. We've never had to think about things like this in the NT. Probably haven't got to this point for most of Australia. If things go as badly as suggested in the article above, we could need to think about things like this.
I can't see international borders opening completely for another 2 years, or more. (But hopefully we'll be in a travel bubble with a few other countries where things are under control).
- A COVID-19 vaccine that prevents both the disease and viral transmission is the aim. Until then, here's what we need to do
"The Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine has been shown to be safe and effective in late-stage clinical trials at preventing COVID-19, including severe disease, after infection. But we still don't know if the vaccine prevents transmission of the virus from an infected person to a healthy one. In fact, according to reports so far, this was not an endpoint or outcome measure of its trial. In other words, the vaccine trial was not designed to find this out."
- Updated Statistics. Things are continuing to get worse in parts of Europe and elsewhere. In America, California has been recording more than 50,000 new cases per day. The stories below show what could happen here if we let it get our of control.
- COVID-19: More countries detect mutated UK coronavirus strain
Several European countries and Australia have detected the new, faster-spreading strain of COVID-19. In South Africa, authorities believe that a new strain detected there is not the same as the one in the UK.
- How Are Americans Catching the Virus? Increasingly, 'They Have No Idea' *
New outbreaks used to be traced back to crowded factories and rowdy bars. But now, the virus is so widespread not even health officials are able to keep up."Once an area spins out of control, trying to trace back each chain of transmission can feel like scooping cupfuls of water from a flood. In some places, overwhelmed health officials have abandoned any pretense of keeping up."
- As Hospitals Fill, Travel Nurses Race to Virus Hot Spots *
Demand is rising for nurses who work on contract. It is a nomadic existence and, in a pandemic, a high-risk one. "I was totally unprepared for the reality," one recalled.
Just before the election, Ms. Fitzsimmons said, she was treating a patient who repeated a conspiracy theory that has circulated on the internet and in conservative media: The coronavirus is a hoax perpetuated by Democrats.
"I'm taking care of this man and he said, 'I can't wait for the election to be over so all this will all go away,'" she said. "And I'm like, 'That's not happening. It's real, I promise you, it's real.'"
15 December
Vaccines
- What you need to know about the Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines **
Highly recommended overview of the three and what happens next.
- Vaccine likely to prevent Covid developing but not stop transmission
Interim results from vaccine trials are promising, but protection may be temporary and longterm side-effects are unknown, new review says
- Cyberattacks Discovered on Vaccine Distribution Operations *
IBM has found that companies and governments have been targeted by unknown attackers, prompting a warning from the Homeland Security Department.
"some cybersecurity experts say they suspect something more nefarious: efforts to interfere with the distribution, or ransomware, in which the vaccines would be essentially held hostage by hackers who have gotten into the system that runs the distribution network and locked it up — and who demand a large payment to unlock it."
- The Vaccines Will Probably Work. Making Them Fast Will Be the Hard Part. *
Front-runners in the coronavirus vaccine race won't make nearly as many doses this year as were predicted, but they may kick into high gear next year. It's a lot easier to make thousands of doses for a clinical trial than to churn out millions a month. Making vaccines is a complex, sometimes finicky process, requiring sterile conditions and precise control of temperature and humidity.
- Airlines Gear Up to Transport Vaccines That Could Revive Travel *
Planes are one part of an elaborate supply chain to move billions of doses of vaccines around the world.
"One of the biggest challenges for airlines has been ensuring that vaccines are transported at frigid temperatures. Pfizer's must be stored at an incredibly low minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit. Moderna's can be kept at a more easily managed minus 4 degrees."
- For some Americans, the coronavirus vaccine can't come soon enough. Others are taking a wait-and-see approach. **
There are a LOT of people who won't get vaccinated until they see how it works for others.
- Unexpected side effects. Two more stories since my post of 24 November.
- Updated Statistics. Things are getting a lot worse in parts of Europe.
10 December
Opposing viewpoints.- The Great Barrington Declaration
"As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection."
- 5 failings of the Great Barrington Declaration's dangerous plan for COVID-19 natural herd immunity
One thing that is definitely true "Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health — leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice." The last bit seems to be true for the very young, but I'm personally not so sure about high school & uni students.
- Following on from the above, Measles Deaths Soared Worldwide Last Year, as Vaccine Rates Stalled *
The new data, from the W.H.O. and C.D.C., alarmed public health experts, who fear the effect of the coronavirus pandemic this year could bring more bad numbers.
- When Trump Was Right and Many Democrats Wrong *
Children have suffered because many mayors and governors were too willing to close public schools.
Read it and look at the science. While Australia seems to have won, at least for now, it appears that lots of people who didn't need to suffer did suffer because of the way the lockdown was handled.
- Updated Statistics. We've done a great job compared to most of the world but if Covid were to get away here, I'd thankful I live in a warm place and don't spend too much time in aircon.
3 December
24 November
More good news about vaccines and some bad news about what the disease can do to people, even if they showed no symptoms when they had it.
- Vaccine #3.
- There is mounting evidence that people, even young people, who had no obvious symptoms when they had the disease can suffer long term damage.
- Asymptomatic COVID: Silent, but Maybe Not Harmless
Researchers who have scanned the hearts and lungs of people who tested positive for COVID-19, but never felt ill, have seen telltale signs of distress.
One of those was a study of passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined for 2 weeks off the coast of Japan. Ultimately, 712 passengers — out of 3,700 on board — tested positive. Almost half of them, 331, had no symptoms. Of those, 76 had their lungs examined by CT scan for a study. More than half had ground glass opacities, though they didn't show as much damage as people who had symptoms.
-
Covid-19 Can Cause Heart Damage — Even If You Are Asymptomatic
- Even if you're asymptomatic, COVID-19 can harm your heart, study shows — here's what student athletes need to know
- COVID-19 and the Heart: A Look at Recent Research
"We're seeing patients, where they seem to have no symptoms of COVID," he says, "but when we take pictures of their heart, we see inflammation of the heart. We're worried about whether we could be creating a wave of heart problems that we won't see for a year or two."
- Finally, a technical one from a major medical journal.
Follow-up study of the pulmonary function and related physiological characteristics of COVID-19 survivors three months after recovery
Although critical pneumonia has been excluded from our study, residual abnormalities of pulmonary function and chest radiography were still observed in three quarters of the cohort at 3 months after discharge.
- Updated Statistics. The death rate for diagnosed cases continues to drop almost everywhere BUT cases are increasing at such a rate that the total number killed is rising rapidly. As the northern hemisphere heads into winter and people head indoors, it's almost certainly going to get much worse before a vaccine becomes widely available.
19 November
Vaccines are coming, but they won't get out as fast as some people think.
- Another Vaccine. Early Data Show Moderna's Coronavirus Vaccine Is 94.5% Effective *
Moderna is the second company to report preliminary results from a large trial testing a vaccine. But there are still months to go before it will be widely available to the public.
- New Zealand needs a 'traffic light' system to stop COVID-19 creeping in at the border.
It applies just as much in Australia. Covid will come in. How we manage the quarantine of people returning from overseas will determine whether or not it gets away again.
- In America,
- The coronavirus has hammered Brazil. But somehow, Bolsonaro is getting more popular. **
The right-wing former army captain is more popular than at any time since the beginning of his presidency.
When you think about the economic fallout, when people need to work every day to survive, lockdowns can't work.
- A Police Swarm. Frantic Calls. Then 3,000 People Locked Inside. *
On July 4, Australia's second-largest city went into lockdown. But residents of nine public housing towers were singled out for even stricter treatment, leading many to suspect discrimination.
And still no one has been held responsible for the private security guard mess.
- Updated Statistics. The recent uptick in South Australia shows how easy it is for the disease to get away when people come in from overseas, even when they are quarantined. While the death rate for diagnosed cases continues to drop almost everywhere, there is a disturbing number of places where the percentage of new deaths is increasing. I've highlighted those countries in my list where there has been a steady increase over the past two weeks. For most of the world, it's almost certainly going to get worse before it gets better.
13 November
Many, perhaps most, people do not understand the actual risk of the disease. Some fear it far more than necessary. Others think it's so small as to be irrelevant. The first two articles below from New Scientist should give you a better understanding than almost anything you will find in the popular press.
- Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine is more than 90 percent effective in first analysis, company reports **
This is great news but read the details and add a dose of reality.
- "The vaccine requires two doses, given three weeks apart. Pfizer and BioNTech are working around-the-clock to scale up production, in hopes of having 50 million doses — enough for 25 million people to receive both shots — by the end of the year, and 1.3 billion doses in 2021."
- The vaccine will initially be available only to selected groups, likely to include health-care workers and other people at high risk of severe disease.
- It will be essential to prioritize the limited doses to those at highest risk and to acknowledge that the extensive ultra-cold storage requirements of the vaccine, which must be chilled to minus-70 degrees Celsius, will limit the immediate impact.
There are other vaccines in preparation, but no other definitive results. It's likely to be a fair while before any vaccine becomes generally available in Australia.
- When you look at the situation overseas, we've got a lot to be thankful for.
-
As Hospitalizations Soar, El Paso Brings In New Mobile Morgues *
The nation hit a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations on Tuesday. The feared third wave has left cities like El Paso struggling with overloaded I.C.U. wards and scarce staffing.
- New York's block-by-block lockdowns are curbing covid-19. But residents aren't pleased. **
City officials are eager to avoid a repeat of deadly spring but admit 'how hard this is going to be to sustain'
New York officials have embraced a new strategy to quash coronavirus spikes — shutting down schools and businesses with almost surgical precision, using block-by-block infection data while also boosting testing and contact tracing in those communities.
I can't help but wonder if Melbourne could have got where they did by doing something similar rather than the total lockdown they had.
- This Pandemic Could Have Been Medieval
The black death killed about 35% of the population of Europe. We could face something similar. This thread by a Yale professor and physician is an absolute must-read critical to understanding COVID-19. Humankind is lucky this disease is not as lethal as previous plague-like diseases — which means we must prepare for the next one which could be worse. There is no scientific reason the next global respiratory pandemic will not be worse than this one. They tend to recur every decade or two, but it could happen anytime. We should regard this one as a wake-up call.
Should — given the short electoral cycle, I doubt anything much will happen before we get hit again.
- Updated Statistics. Reported new cases in Australia remain low with only a few cases involving local transmission as opposed to people coming back from overseas.
Since I did the table, Vanuatu has lost its status as covid free.
If you want to see just how bad it's becoming, go to the Washington Post Coronavirus page and scroll down to to the table Case and death counts by country, then click deaths and totals in the top line and look at the last column, 'Change in Daily Deaths in the Last 7 Days'. It's easy to have a big percentage increase if you are starting from a low base, but some of the increases in countries like Britain and Italy which already have a large number of deaths are really dramatic.
3 November
Many, perhaps most, people do not understand the actual risk of the disease. Some fear it far more than necessary. Others think it's so small as to be irrelevant. The first two articles below from New Scientist should give you a better understanding than almost anything you will find in the popular press.
28 October
- Rush for results could lead to inferior Covid vaccine, say scientists
"The push to roll out injections may see elderly miss out on effective coronavirus inoculations."
- Is reaching zero COVID-19 possible?
"A few have even called for a zero COVID-19 approach, attempting to eliminate the virus rather than contain its spread. New Zealand almost succeeded but, after 100 days without a case, new infections emerged from international travel and other unknown sources. While it's possible to flatten the curve using these control measures, getting to zero COVID-19 with them is more difficult."
- Worried About Covid-19 in the Winter? Alaska Provides a Cautionary Tale *
"The state is seeing record case numbers, adding to evidence that the virus is poised to thrive as the weather grows colder."
What's that got to do with Australia as we head into summer? It's not just cold that helps spread the virus, it's being indoors. Masses of people indoors with airconditioning could see another outbreak.
- TCovid-19 death rates are lower worldwide, but no one is sure whether that's a blip or a trend **
"Scientists warn against complacency in this 'cliffhanger moment,' saying even reduced lethality could mean millions more lives lost.
- Updated Statistics. Following on from the above, cases have been surging around the world; deaths trickling up. The decrease in the death rate is partly due to better diagnosis but it's real. This week's table shows how it has been dropping in different countries.
8 October
- 'Littered with failure': Scientists warn race to produce vaccine could be harmful
"If vaccines were deployed outside clinical trials before safety and efficacy have been fully established and prove to be ineffective or cause rare but severe side effects during the larger-scale roll-out, they could cause substantial harm and damage public confidence in other vaccines."
- Child deaths tied to covid-19 remain remarkably low, months into U.S. pandemic **
pinpointing why children are faring so much better than adults in this pandemic could offer clues to therapies that might work for everyone. So far, however, there are only theories.
- Forty percent of people with coronavirus infections have no symptoms. Might they be the key to ending the pandemic? **
New research suggests that some of us may be partially protected due to past encounters with common cold coronaviruses. "In an article published this month in the Journal of General Internal Medicine, Gandhi noted that in some outbreaks early in the pandemic in which most people did not wear masks, 15 percent of the infected were asymptomatic. But later on, when people began wearing masks, the rate of asymptomatic people was 40 to 45 percent.
- The secret to Australia's success in beating the coronavirus? Being an island helps. **
"among the most important factors was the decision to close Australia's border to foreigners on March 20, and subsequent internal border closures by most state governments.
I suspect it will be years before Australian's will again be able to travel freely around the world.
- Updated Statistics. Sweden, which never had a lock down, has proportionally fewer new cases than much of the rest of Europe which did.
29 September
22 September
You Don't Have To Catch Covid For It To Kill You.
15 September
- People are getting frustrated.
Around the world, health officials face death threats amid pandemic **
The first example is an Australian.
- All my takeout has delivered a mountain of trash. So I asked experts how to minimize it. **
The article is from America but applies equally to Australia.
-
Now everyone's a statistician. Here's what armchair COVID experts are getting wrong.
- Looking at covid hot spots may be the wrong way to go. Hacking the pandemic: how Taiwan's digital democracy holds COVID-19 at bay
"While the notion of 'digital democracy' is as old as the internet, few countries have really tried to find out how to practice democracy in digital spheres. In Taiwan, however, there is a strong collective narrative of digital democracy, and government and civil society work together in online spaces to build public trust." It appears that Taiwan has one of the best functioning democracies in the world.
- Updated Statistics. Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics While the number of Covid cases is increasing again, in many countries the death rate is decreasing. For example, in France, the total number of cases increased by 16% while the total number of deaths increased by only 1%. This suggests that many of the restrictions are an overreaction. Australia, however, is the worst counterexample. Total cases increased by only 1% but total deaths increased by 7%. But, as per one of the links above, these deaths were the result of earlier infections when the increase in new cases was higher. The smaller increases in total deaths follow weeks of relatively high new case numbers so the delay can't explain them.
8 September
- Something to think about when you have your next cup of coffee.
A dark brew: coffee, COVID and colonialism have left millions struggling to make a living
"The reopening of cafes has been one of the highlights of relaxed COVID-19 restrictions for many Australians. During lockdowns, long queues for takeaway coffee were testimony to caffeine's relevance to our lives.
"Yet the precarious employment of so many hospitality workers meant hundreds of thousands of casual café workers and café owners lost work. Rents and mortgages were suspended or lost, upturning countless lives. At the other end of the coffee supply chain, many coffee farmers in poorer countries, who were already struggling to make a living, are doing it even tougher."
- 4 out of 5 international students are still in Australia — how we treat them will have consequences
Australian Universities are hurting financially. What we do with interenational students in Australia will influence their future viability.
- The pandemic is ruining our sleep. Experts say 'coronasomnia' could imperil public health. **
I had no idea that this was such a big problem.
- Looking at covid hot spots may be the wrong way to go. Open COVID 'cold spots' first: a way out of lockdown for Melbourne
It's certainly worth considering.
- Updated Statistics. For the week ending 7 September, new cases in Australia continued to trend down while new cases are trending up substantially in some parts of Europe leading to new lockdowns. India has overtaken Brazil for the nummber two spot in total cases.
Points to Ponder. Covid hits old people far harder than young ones. Japan has the oldest population of any country yet their fatality rate is one of the lowest. Singapore has had more than twice as many cases as Australia but Australia has had 28 times as many deaths. Why?
1 September
25 August
- In Australia, some states may have to open some borders sooneer than their governments would like.
-
Disproportionate border closures 'could be illegal'
"State premiers could be under further pressure to reopen their borders as experts warn "disproportionate" hard closures could be illegal if coronavirus cases keep declining and call for travel bubbles between states with low case numbers."
- The article above is from the Australian Financial Review. If it isn't accessible, try
this podcast from the ABC.
- What if 'Herd Immunity' Is Closer Than Scientists Thought? *
"In what may be the world's most important math puzzle, researchers are trying to figure out how many people in a community must be immune before the coronavirus fades." This story follows on from those in last week's blog.
- Face masks. Not as necessary in most of Australia as in some countries, but if you are in a place where it seems to make sense, here are some things to consider.
- Updated Statistics. For the week ending 24 August, new cases in Australia continue to trend down while new cases seem to be trending up in some parts of Europe as they re-open. India looks as if it will soon overtake Brazil for the second highest total number of cases. On the bright side, in many countries, the death rate is falling.
I've got some more interesting stories but want to dig a bit deeper before I post them. Watch for an update later this week.
18 August
Good News?
11 August
4 August
- From the Financial Times, Coronavirus Tracked is a page about the virus, updated daily. It's far worse than we think. "the numbers of deaths over and above the historical average — across the globe, and has found that numbers of deaths in some countries are more than 50 per cent higher than usual. In many countries, these excess deaths exceed reported numbers of Covid-19 deaths by large margins."
There is an amazing amount of information on the page. Well worth a look.
- Safer than you think. Is the Subway Risky? It May Be Safer Than You Think
New studies in Europe and Asia suggest that riding public transportation is not a major source of transmission for the coronavirus. The story is from America but applies just as much here.
- Mapping COVID-19 spread in Melbourne shows link to job types and ability to stay home
This pandemic takes advantage of inequity and our most vulnerable communities. It shows us why we must include the full spectrum of society (not only those we know best) when we make decisions, communicate and ask people to work from home.
- Most people in the United States are still highly susceptible to the coronavirus, CDC study finds
"The true number of infections is probably far greater than reported cases, and few people had antibodies to the virus as of this spring." The percentage of people with antibodies would be even lower in Australia.
- How tiny Uruguay, wedged between Brazil and Argentina, has avoided the worst of the coronavirus
It's too early to be sure, but it looks as Uruguay is a winner.
- Europe scrambles to avoid a second coronavirus wave, as infections rise
"health officials warn that lax public attitudes are putting the continent on a dangerous trajectory." We're seeing some of the same in Australia. It's mostly Victoria now, but that can easily change, with or without border closures as there are always essential exceptions that allow some people in.
- Updated Statistics. For the week ending 3 August, Australia's percentage increse ws almost as bad as the week before. Once again, it was mostly in Victoria. The variation in death rates between countries is hard to explain. For example, with the world's oldest population, why is the death rate in Japan so low compared to western countries? Or why does it vary so much between different states in the US?
29 July
Best Site for Australian News, Weekly Stats & More
24 & 25 July
Tales from Australia and Around the World
- One I missed in the 24 July post below.
'Real risk at the frontline': how Australia's health workers are getting Covid-19
It's worse than I realised. "The pressure on staff as they deal with the resurgence of the coronavirus has been 'immense', the hospital peak body says.
- 'Superspreading' events, triggered by people who may not even know they are infected, propel coronavirus pandemic
Most spread the virus to only a few people — or none at all. But studies show a small percentage transmit it with alarming efficiency.
Watch the video!! It's one of the best brief explanations I've seen.
-
Victoria's aged care system on verge of collapse amid Covid-19 surge, doctors warn
- Canada's coronavirus performance hasn't been perfect. But it's done far better than the U.S. — and, so far, no where near as well as Australia.
- Sun Belt hospitals are feeling the strain from virus' surge — and bracing for worse
- The crisis that shocked the world: America's response to the coronavirus
Dysfunctional politics, a lack of funding for public health and a rush to reopen the economy ignited the resurgence of the virus.
- With Officials' Backing, Dubious Virus Remedies Surge in Latin America *
A chlorine solution, particularly popular in Bolivia, is just one of several unproven treatments gaining ground in a region desperate for hope.
- As Japan Nears 1,000 Daily Coronavirus Infections, It Shies From Restrictions *
Case numbers are climbing fast, with virus clusters in nursing homes, schools and elsewhere. But fingers are being pointed at Japan's so-called hostess bars.
- Updated statistics. I was in town for only a day between bush trips so the new ones will be out in a few days.
18 July
8 July
It's Young People Too & Weekly Stats
- Updated Statistics. I was out bush when I'd have been updating the figures so the last two entries aren't perfectly weekly. They DO show the trends. Apparently under control or getting under control in some places, going wild in others.
- Latin America's coronavirus crisis is only getting worse
The region, which is home to just 8 percent of the world's population, accounted for about half of global coronavirus-related deaths in the past two weeks and surpassed the unfortunate milestone of 100,000 fatalities this week.
That was a week ago. It's got worse since. The Brazilian president has just been diagnosed as having caught it.
- Young people urged to take virus more seriously as pandemic worsens in U.S.
"Younger patients are a widening percentage of total coronavirus hospitalizations, with those in the 18-to-49 age group growing from about 27 percent of hospitalizations the week ending March 7 to 35 percent this past week". This is a week old. It may have risen since.
- Fauci worries U.S. covid-19 cases could climb to 100,000 daily
The official tally was just over 50,000 new cases from the day before I posted this.
- Covid is killing people who never caught it. Heart conditions drove spike in deaths beyond those attributed to covid-19, analysis shows
"Fear of seeking care in hospitals overwhelmed by the pandemic may have caused thousands of deaths, experts say." The story is from America. To a lesser extent, it's true inm Australia.
- On the lighter side, How cartoons are chronicling the battle between mask wearers and Trump
24 June
Who Suffers Most & Weekly Stats
18 June
Moral Questions, Weekly Stats & More
12 June
3 Changes & Weekly Stats
8 June
Covid and Food
3 June
Long Term Outlook & Weekly Statistics Update
- Small Business and Job Disaster
- Violence in America. Some thoughts.
- Updated Statistics. Things continue to get better in Australia and New Zealand but if they don't slow down the spread in Brazil, it may eventually overtake the US in terms of the total number of cases. The death rate of those who caught the disease in different countries varies wildly. Why is it so much lower in Chile than in much of Europe?
26 May
A Few Surprises & Weekly Statistics Update
21 May
There's No Going Back
- Updated Statistics. Russia and Brazil are now numbers 2 & 3 in terms of the total number of reported cases. The UK is now the worst in Europe. Sweden has been harder hit than the other Scandinavian countries but they may be well on the way to developing 'herd immunity'. International travel is unlikely to go back to anywhere near pre-pandemic levels until there is a widely distributed vaccine.
- Speaking of Sweden, Sweden's coronavirus strategy is not what it seems
- As some countries ease up, others are reimposing lockdowns amid a resurgence of coronavirus infections
- Closer to home, Coronavirus in Bali: Tourists that chose to stay are enjoying discount rates
- "What we're really asking is when the previously normal economy will be back. The answer is "never," I'm afraid. We will return to something quite different and as yet unknown." What's happening now is a sudden and massive shift in awareness ....
- We are working from home, and we like it.
- We are eating home-cooked meals, and we like it.
- We are finding new ways to entertain ourselves, and we like it.
- We are shedding excesses from our lives, and we like it.
- And we are discovering that yesterday's status quo has left us anxious and angry, and we don't like it.
The bit above was taken from a Joah Mauldin Newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline: Viral Thoughts in a section called "Juggling Act". It's free. I find it gives a different and very useful perspective when looking at things like the economy. (The dot points above also came from a Mauldin newsletter but I've misplaced the source.)
16 May
Useful New Information
12 May
Looking to the Future
7 May
Australian Questions Answered & More
5 May
- Updated Statistics. I couldn't fit the width into a PDF so I've done an excel spreadsheet. The spread seems to be slowing down in some countries while speeding up in others.Pe r capita, Singapore has been hit worse than the UK, but the death rate is less than 1% of that in the UK. Why? Lots of questions, few answers.
- This article from the NY Times looks at the questions above. The Covid-19 Riddle: Why Does the Virus Wallop Some Places and Spare Others? *
Experts are trying to figure out why the coronavirus is so capricious. The answers could determine how to best protect ourselves and how long we have to.
- While I like numbers and sttistics, I know better than to believe that most of the numbers in my statistics link are correct. They show trends, but do you really think that reporting covid deaths in a country like India can be as accurate as in a country like Singapore. It's not just the poorer countries. U.S. deaths soared in early weeks of pandemic, far exceeding number attributed to covid-19. This is true in many countries, the number of deaths compared too the average was far higher than the official statistics show.
- Special note.The following is long, but full of graphics so it doesn't take long to view. If you have time to browse through it, it's one of the best things I've seen.
AFTER COVID: Politics & Policy in the Age of Pandemic
This is a PDF of power point slides, from US but relevant to whole world.
1 May
Good, Bad and Seriously Ugly
- Only in America? I hope so.
White House, Congress have not given any hazard pay to the medical workers they call heroes
"Instead of hiking salaries for medical workers, numerous hospitals across the country have slashed pay for nurses and doctors, as the suspension of elective surgeries drains health-care companies of a vital source of revenue."
- Dogs are being trained to sniff out coronavirus cases
If this works, airport dogs might help get international travel going again.
- Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying of strokes
Doctors sound alarm about patients in their 30s and 40s left debilitated or dead. Some didn't even know they were infected. Thankfully, it's not very common.
- 'Second-week crash' is time of peril for some covid-19 patients
"people with the coronavirus can crash before or after they are hospitalized. Doctors report seeing patients who wait too long to seek care, including those who do not feel the symptoms of plummeting oxygen levels, such as shortness of breath, until they are in crisis. No one is sure why."
- Are Ventilators for COVID-19 Doing More Harm than Good?
This 11 minute video is one doctor's opinion. The article above mentioned possible problems with ventilators so I thought it worth including. Definitely worth a look is you want to know more about ventilators.
29 April
More Stats & Happier News
More numbers and some stories I enjoyed.
25 April
What Covid Might Do To You & Updated Death Count
23 April
It's Worse Than You Think
22 April
Updated Statistics & Easing Restrictions
18 April
What Are You Are Allowed to Do?
Different stated have different restrictions as to what you are allowed to do in the lock down. The best summary I've seen is from The Guardian. They say they update it on a regular basis. Can I visit my family or parents? Australia's coronavirus lockdown rules and restrictions explained.
Statistics
Mark Twain once quoted the saying, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." I haven't found a definitive answer as to who originated the line but it seems appropriate in the time of Covid. I'm fascinated by numbers but I know better than to believe them all at face value.
15 April
Updated Statistics &: Air Travel
- Updated Statistics. The daily increase in the number of cases in Australia is decreasing. We may be able to begin easing some restrictions in another couple of weeks. Worldwide, it has yet to really hit many underdeveloped countries. It will be years before international travel can to get back to where it was early this year.
- Then and now: visualizing COVID-19's impact on air traffic
Drag the bar in the middle from one side to one side or the other to compare flights on 7 March and 7 April. This is just the number of flights. With many aircraft flying nearly empty, the drop in passengers is even greater.
- Flight Attendants and Pilots Ask, 'Is It OK to Keep Working?' *
The coronavirus has terrified airline crews, yet some are still flying. "I just feel like I'm supposed to be here doing this work," said one flight attendant.
I suspect it's not as bad in Australia as we have far fewer covid cases.
Food Security
Some of the stories coming out of America are terrifying. We're doing much better but need to be careful to make sure we don't go the same way.
- In America
- Dumped Milk, Smashed Eggs, Plowed Vegetables: Food Waste of the Pandemic *
With restaurants, hotels and schools closed, many of the nation's largest farms are destroying millions of pounds of fresh goods that they can no longer sell.
- 'Never Seen Anything Like It': Cars Line Up for Miles at Food Banks *
Millions are flooding a charitable system that was never intended to handle a nationwide crisis.
- Poultry Worker's Death Highlights Spread of Coronavirus in Meat Plants *
Some employees are coming in sick, and one woman died after being ordered back to work. "Our work conditions are out of control," a longtime Tyson employee said.
- A slightly different take on the story above. South Dakota's governor resisted ordering people to stay home. Now it has one of the nation’s largest coronavirus hot spots.
"The shutdown of the Sioux Falls plant, coupled with other closures, 'is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply,' Kenneth Sullivan, Smithfield president and chief executive, said in a statement. 'It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running.'"
- In Australia
- Coronavirus visa decision provides relief for backpackers as farmers receive unprecedented applications for jobs
- A comment from a friend who has a barramundi farm. "The closing of restaurants and social distancing have had a significant impact on our sales and our margins. We are national suppliers for Woolies and Costco, and sales here have increased, albeit at lower prices. We are pretty busy, rescheduling work teams to spread talent and minimise crossover, upping hygiene policing, cutting costs, reassuring staff, doing "what if" financial analyses etc. The tricky bit is we don't know from day to day what the emerging situation will present, how long the "siege" is going to last or what the economy will look like at the end. Overall, we expect to emerge with a viable business that is well positioned for the future, but we expect the road to be rough.
It's too soon to end it but it's not too soon to start thinking about how we begin to do it.
- From the New Scientist, When will lockdown end? Nations look for coronavirus exit strategies
There are three main strategies for leaving coronavirus lockdown, but each risks a dangerous second wave and further lockdowns if things don't go as planned.M/li>
- China Ends Wuhan Lockdown, but Normal Life Is a Distant Dream *
In the city where the coronavirus outbreak was first reported, the reopening of outbound travel won’t end hard times, wariness or confinement.
- Some of Europe, 'Walking a Tightrope,' Will Loosen Coronavirus Restrictions *
Looking for a return to normal may be misplaced. Instead, the next phase is about learning how to live with the virus, possibly for a long time.
- From the New Scientist, Australia seems to be keeping a lid on covid-19 &@8212; how is it doing it?
"One option being considered is lifting restrictions in individual states or territories on a trial basis before applying the changes nationally."
With fairly sealable borders and no cases of 'community transmission' to date, the NT (excluding remote communities) might be a good place to start.
8 April
Reasons for Optimism
- New Zealand isn't just flattening the curve. It's squashing it.
- Australia has an equally low percentage of the population to have tested positive but we're not doing as well in terms of the death rate. IF we can maintain the current restrictions for another two weeks, we should be able to start loosening up. IF both countries do the same and keep restrictions on travel to and from most other countries, we might be able to go back to near normal flights between the two countries within 2 or 3 months.
- Influenza antiviral Avigan (favipiravir) to enter Phase III trials in COVID-19 patients
But "a Japanese health ministry source suggested the drug was not as effective in people with more severe symptoms. "We've given Avigan to 70 to 80 people, but it doesn't seem to work that well when the virus has already multiplied," the source told the Mainichi Shimbun."
There are lots of stories about other potential vaccines or medications which might help. In some cases, there are significant side effects. Everything I've read from sources I trust suggests a vaccine will be at least a year away.
Working From Home
7 April
America vs Australia
I've got friends and family in America. I'm thankful I'm in Australia.
- Updated Statistics. New York state has almost overtaken Italy in the total number of cases. Fortunately, the fatality rate there isn't anywhere near as high. Most of the trends (e.g. the number of new cases in Australia is droppijng) and questions I had in the 3 April post, remain the same.
- America — Why They Have So Many Problems
- It's even worse than it looks.
Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll *
Inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a patchwork of decision-making has led to an undercounting of people with the coronavirus who have died, health experts say.
The same is true in australia, but to a lesser extgent.
5 April
Things You Can Do
News From Asia
3 April
Statistics
I've been following the increase in Covid cases in Australia and around the world. Here's an abbreviated version of the table. For Australia it appears that the number of new cases per day is declining. If we can keep doing what we're doing for long enough, we might be out of this sooner than expected. That's us. If you click the link and look at the stats for the rest of the world, there are lots of interesting questions.
- Fatality rate.
- Why is most of Europe so high?
- The American health system doesn't normally produce results that much better than Europe. Why now?
Why is Germany so much better than so many of the others?
- How does a country like Chile do as well as a rich one like Australia? Both have among the lowest fatality rates recorded in the world.
Lockdown: Sweden vs Norway - Sweden's population is almost twice that of Norway but they have only 14% more cases. Why?
- We think of the Scandinavian countries as similar, but the death rate in Sweden is ive times that in Norway. Why?
- In the Coronavirus Fight in Scandinavia, Sweden Stands Apart
"The country has drawn global attention with an unorthodox approach while its neighbors have imposed extensive restrictions." The infection rate is among the lowest in Europe. What makes them different?
3 April
Who Catches The Virus?
Your first guess is almost certainly wrong. According to the
Australian Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers, as of the date at the top of this page, there were more cases in women age 20-29 than any other group. In descending order, the next three were men age 20-29, men age 60-69 and women age 60-69. After that, it's too close to be sure. Old people may be more likely to die, but young ones are more likely to spread it. Below are two more good websites you can use to track the worldwide spread of the disease.
Comparing countries and regions within countries, New York has one of the highest rates of infection in the world but, so far, the death rate there is far lower than Italy, Spain, France or the UK. Germany has a large number of cases but a low percent of fatalities.
Per capita, New Zealand has almost as many infections as Australia, but far fewer deaths. Somewhat surprisingly, Australia and Chile have a similar percent of infections and fatalities. In both countries, people who have caught the disease have only 20% the chance of dying as someone n the US, 4% the chance of dying as someone in Italy. We're doing something right.
Covid Stories
I often sit on stories for a while before putting them into a newsletter. The pandemic is moving too fast for that. I've found the following particularly interesting for a variety of reasons.
Something Practical
From Choice, Cleaning in the time of coronavirus
How to create a COVID-19 cleaning routine for your home: the products you need and what you should do.
If you haven't already seen it, our special Covid 19 Newsletter went onto the website on 25 March. Everyone who had booked a trip should have received our a copy. Refund details are in the newsletter. Newer information is on our Availability page.
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