Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 65, April 2013

The End of Willis's Walkabouts

It didn't quite happen, but it came close. If things had been just slightly different, I'd have been gone and the business might or might not have continued without me.

On the weekend of 9-10 March, I led a trip for the Darwin Bushwalking Club. (Now you know what I do in my free time when I'm not walking with one of my tours.) We were heading home when, about 50 km outside Darwin, the driver of the car in which I was travelling suddenly dozed off and swerved into the oncoming traffic lane. I shouted. He overcorrected as he swerved back, going off onto the grass beside the road. 30 metres later we hit a concrete culvert and the lights went out. I spent two nights in hospital, having broken the windscreen with my face in spite of my seatbelt.

While my recovery has been little short of miraculous, the incident has given me pause to reflect on what's really important in life. It's certainly not work and material things. It's people.

I wrote up a description of the accident and its aftermath which I've sent to a number of my friends. If you are one of those who knows me personally or just curious, please have a look at The Accident and its Aftermath.

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World War III — Has It Begun?

The title of this section might seem absurd, but if a war is something that is designed to cause an opponent's society to collapse, then maybe it's no where near as absurd as it might seem at first glance. Almost every aspect of our society depends on computers. Attack the right computers and you can bring down the banking system, the electricity supply and much more. It's already happening.

• * Computer Networks in South Korea Were Paralyzed in Cyber attacks.
  Computer networks running three major South Korean banks and two of the country's largest broadcasters were hit Wednesday in attacks that some experts suspected originated in North Korea.
• China and Others vs the USA
  • * Chinese Army Unit Is Seen as Tied to Hacking Against U.S.
    A growing body of evidence leaves little doubt that an overwhelming percentage of the attacks on American companies and government agencies start in a building on the edge of Shanghai.
    " attacks believed coming from Unit 61398 focus not just on stealing information, but obtaining the ability to manipulate American critical infrastructure: the power grids and other utilities."
  • * A New Cold War, in Cyberspace, Tests U.S. Ties to China
    The Obama administration is weighing how directly to confront China over hacking as it escalates demands that Beijing halt the state-sponsored attacks it insists it is not mounting.
  • * As Hacking Against U.S. Rises, Experts Try to Pin Down Motive
    Motives for a cyber attack, which could range from industrial spying to disabling the power grid, remain obscure.
  • * Obama Order Gives Firms Cyber threat Information
    The measures considered most important by cyber security experts were not included in the executive order because they require Congressional approval.
  • * Broad Powers Seen for Obama in Cyber strikes
    The administration is moving to approve the nation's first rules for how the military can defend, or retaliate, against a major cyber attack.
• Don't like the news? Take it down.
  • * Hackers in China Attacked The Times for Last 4 Months
    The timing of the attacks coincided with reporting for an investigation that found that the relatives of China's prime minister had accumulated a fortune worth several billion dollars through business dealings.
  • * The Washington Post Joins List of News Media Hacked by the Chinese
    The Washington Post has joined The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg as news organizations hacked after writing articles about China's leaders.
• Forget about governments, how long before something like this crashes the whole internet?
  • * Firm Is Accused of Sending Spam, and Fight Jams Internet
    A squabble between a group battling spam and a Dutch company that hosts Web sites said to be sending it has escalated into an attack clogging up key online infrastructure worldwide.
  • * Attacks Used the Internet Against Itself to Clog Traffic
    A huge denial-of-service attack that eventually slowed traffic across much of the Internet relied on vulnerabilities in the network's own hardware to amplify its effects.
  • * Cyber attacks Seem Meant to Destroy, Not Just Disrupt
    Corporate leaders have long feared hacking in service of fraud or spying, but now a new threat has taken hold: attackers who seem bent on destruction.

We have created a society in which everything is interconnected,where one little mistake in one place can have worldwide consequences. We live in a fragile society. That's a perfect introduction to the next section.

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Risk

One of the points in Taleb's book is how we overestimate the risk of unfamiliar things and underrate the risk of familiar ones. People who aren't bushwalkers often consider what we do to be risky. The reality is that you are in more danger of being killed on a two week driving trip than on a two week bushwalk. Jared Diamond wrote a wonderful piece explaining this. * That Daily Shower Can Be a Killer. We exaggerate the risks of events that are beyond our control, that cause many deaths at once or that kill in spectacular ways — crazy gunmen, terrorists, plane crashes, nuclear radiation, genetically modified crops. At the same time, we underestimate the risks of events that we can control ("That would never happen to me — I'm careful") and of events that kill just one person in a mundane way."

Of all the many NY Times links in this newsletter, this is my favourite.

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NSW — The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

The Good

Wildwalks is a free online bushwalking and camping guidebook for NSW. There is information on something like 1000 walks. The Coast & Mountain Walkers magazine says, "View and/or print maps, track notes other information and photos of NSW walks and campsites, plus information on birds, weather and more."

The Bad

The Sydney Bushwalkers alerted me to the fact that the NSW government is selling a number of public right of way "roads" in NSW (these "roads" are usually just a hatching on the map, rather than an actual physical road). Many bushwalkers use these "roads"to gain access to the bush. If access is cut off, then areas for bushwalkers to wander in will be seriously curtailed.

Click the link to find out more and consider signing a petition calling for Transparency for sale of unformed roads in NSW. If enough people sign the petition, then the government may take notice. If people don't sign, then a bad situation will get worse.

The Ugly

"Go on a bushwalk and get shot. "The NSW Government announced on 30 May 2012 a new program of pest control by individuals licensed under the Game and Feral Animal Control Act (GFAC Program). This is to help control pest animals in selected national parks, nature reserves and state conservation areas, once those areas are so declared by the Minister for the Environment."

• Here is a List of where hunting is going to be allowed
• The NPA of NSW No Hunting in National Parks page has a wealth of information for those who want to find out more.

The following is from the February 2013 edition of Into the Blue, the magazine of the Coast & Mountain Walkers in Sydney.

Shooting in National Parks

When Barry O’Farrell announced amateur shooters would be allowed to hunt feral animals in NSW National Parks he said shooting would be "well managed, properly resourced and carried out under strict supervision". Now we hear that no extra money will be available to monitor hunters.

Most National Parks and Wildlife Service Rangers are strongly opposed to hunting in National Parks and the Public Service Association has said that NPWS rangers don’t have time to "babysit recreational hunters".

The Government's own risk assessment indicates bushwalkers and NPWS staff are at risk of being killed or seriously wounded by hunters.

In January an article in the Sydney Morning Herald reported the insurance broker to 55 bushwalking clubs as saying "companies would think twice about offering cover or load the premium for walkers". Some fear that premiums could double.

References:
Shooters to Escape Park Rangers Sights — Heath Aston, Hut News No. 299 Dec. 2012 - Jan 2013 of the Blue Mountains Conservation Society www.bluemountains.org.au/hutnews. See page 4.
Walkers Pay Price for Hunters — Heath Aston, Sydney Morning Herald, 6 Jan. 2013 Walkers Pay Price for Hunters

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Our Society

In my last newsletter, I had a section called The Crisis of the Middle Class. I've found a few more interesting articles to follow on from that theme.

• * State-Wrecked: The Corruption of Capitalism in America
  Eight decades of bipartisan Keynesian spending and Federal Reserve money-printing have left us exhausted and bankrupt.
• * On the Economy, Think Long-Term
  Our underlying economic problems aren't temporary. To fix them, we need a strategy for the next 20 years. Unfortunately few people and fewer politicians can take the necessary long-term view.
• * This Story Stinks
  Not only do we tend to look at only those news sources that agree with us, online reader comments have a bigger effect on our understanding than many of us realize.
• * Over 50, and Under No Illusions
  Many people aged 55 to 64, who had been dreaming of easy retirement, have had to remake their lives to find work during the recession and its aftermath. It's almost as true in Australia as in America.
• * Downton and Downward
  While upward mobility in class-conscious Britain, and most of Western Europe, is rising, the American dream of opportunity is vanishing. Australia tends to follow America in many ways. Is this one we want?
• The Rise of the Permanent Temp Economy
  To avoid union opposition, the postwar temp industry exploited cultural ambivalence about middle-class white women's work. Then it became a model for corporate America. We might not have gone as far, but it's happening here in Australia too.
• * It's P.Q. and C.Q. as Much as I.Q.
  The Great Inflection has transformed the world over the past decade. Each individual has to adapt.
• * Give Pot a Chance
  Forget all the lame jokes about Cheech and Chong: social revolutions in a democracy should not be lightly dismissed.

Two videos

• Jeremy Grantham interview, 53½ minutes
  Wide ranging interview covering the environment, resources, how old people are robbed by low interest rates, why no one is interested in long term, only short term and much more.
  I found it interesting and informative.
  Grantham is regarded as a highly knowledgeable investor in various stock, bond, and commodity markets, and is particularly noted for his prediction of various bubbles. You can find out more about him on the Wikipedia Jeremy Grantham page.
• Politics — Reagan at a dinner honouring Tip O'Neill
  This is only a few minutes but it shows how two men from the opposite sides of politics who disagreed on most things could work together for a common good. Despite their differences, they could call each other friends.
  Can you imagine anything like that from Obama and Boehner or Gillard and Abbott? There are many reasons to prefer the present to the past. Politics is not one of them.

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Nature — A Celebration

Interesting stories

• Miner Consternations
  Noisy miners — native pride or avian thug? It turns out these masters of aggression are wreaking havoc on our other less brazen native wildlife. "Bell miners (first cousins of noisy miners) are now responsible for extreme forest ecosystem degradation and dieback in an increasing number of wet and dry sclerophyll forests in eastern Australia."
• Marvellous mistletoe: Giving forests the kiss of life
  Forget its reputation as a parasitic tree killer, mistletoe is an unsung hero of the woods.
• * DNA suggests marine reserves boost commercial fishing
  If you protect fish, there will be more of them to catch. That's the reasoning conservationists have long used to persuade commercial fisheries of the benefits of marine reserves. Now they may have DNA confirmation.
• * Matches Made in the Wilderness, in the Name of Science
  Adventurers and Scientists for Conservation is dedicated to improving the accessibility of scientific knowledge through partnerships between outdoor enthusiasts and scientists.

Wonderful photos

The following are all power point presentations.

• From the sky
  Aerial views of our planet by Yann Arthus-Bertrand.
• National Geographic Photos
  A collection of some of the best photos from National Geographic
• Bird Fashion Show
  A truly incredible collection of bird photos.
• The Pantanal of Bolivia
  The Pantanal also extends into Brazil. We hope to offer a trip which will visit the Pantanal in 2014.
• And finally, Views from space
  Something to put our world and our problems into perspective.

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Looking Back

Kakadu in the 1960s

Fire and buffalo in Kakadu — a 1960's video clip

Plan ahead. The full video runs a bit over 20 minutes.

Greg Miles, a ranger who served in the park for something like 20 years from the time it was proclaimed wrote the following to accompany the video.

Actually, there is no sign of fire despite it being in October or November.

Check this old video out and look at the vegetation at the height of the buff era. Although they say this is filmed at Goodparla — the stone country in the floodplain filming was done at Cannon Hill on the East Alligator River. Sab Lord found this clip. He was brought up at Munmarlary as a child when all this was happening. The Cannon Hill buff trap was still in use in the same spot at Cannon Hill when I arrived there in 1976.

You might have to turn the volume off so that you don't have to hear the AJ's (American Jerks). Looking at them is bad enough!!

But if ever you wanted evidence that buffalo would have had an impact on the frequency and intensity of fire — look no further.

There is an interesting temporal issue to this as well. IE, Back then, when the wet season finished there was the maximum amount of fuel standing (as happens now). But early dry season fires might have been (lets say 40%) less hot and less damaging to the total ecology — than the same time today — due to the activities of buff over the wet season. But as the dry season progressed there would not have been much production of new grass as growth slows to a standstill as the dry progresses (as happens now). But the appetites of buffalo did not stop. Therefore, over the dry season they continued eating — moving progressively from the woodlands to the plains. As each dry season month passed, the country became less flammable due to buffalo removing grass. This meant that by September, the country wasn't very flammable at all — as you can see in the video clip. And would not be prone to lightning strike ignition, because of the increasing rarity of grass.

Could it be argued therefore, — that during the buff decades — late dry season, hot fires were rare?

But today — in the absence of buffalo — late season hot fires are common and disastrous, forcing land managers to unnaturally burn vast areas of country in the early dry season, as a modern, preventative measure — but this measure is doing massive and cumulative damage to the total ecology. Maybe small mammals are the first to go under this new and unnatural fire regime. But — you will ask — what suppressed the grass pre-buffalo? 'Fine scale, Aboriginal burning' is the answer of course.

I am just thinking out loud with this, but .....

Rock Art Movies

Prehistoric cinema: A silver screen on the cave wall
With cartoon frescoes, shadow theatre and a rudimentary form of animation, our ancestors knew how to bring their stories to life.

Finally, still looking back ...

The History of the World in Two Minutes

This amazing clip was a project by a high school student. Some of those who viewed it wanted to see it in slower motion. It is possible.

• First, download the video rather than watching it online. You can do this using a number of free bits of software. For example Free Download Manager
• Once installed, Free Download Manager provides a small icon on the browser web page with the video, when you hover over certain places on the web page, which if you click it, it will allow you to download the video. I find it easier to use Free Download Manager from YouTube. There is a link down the bottom of the web page you posted that takes you to YouTube to watch the video. Or see YouTube Free Download Manager
• When using Free Download Manager, you need to select to "convert the file format automatically after downloading it", which is an option that appears on the download window.
• Then, if you are using the default Windows Media Player to play the video, right-click the top of the window bar and there should be an option to change the playback speed. On my version, you get there via Enhancements > Play Speed Settings. I found that this slowed the video down to some extent, but it could be better. There are a number of other media players available for free on the web that offer slow playback speeds, so I expect one of those would do a better job.

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News About This Newsletter

Contents

Before I finish one newsletter, I'm already working on the next. I often find that I've got too many interesting things for a single newsletter. I'm also always looking for other interesting items I can add. I'm particularly interested in environmental issues, especially those which might affect bushwalking and in the technology which is shaping our lives. As I said in the last newsletter, Suggestions welcome.

Sending the newsletter

The program I use to send the newsletters is hosted on the same server that hosts our website. The newsletters are sent from walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au. This is the contact address on our website. If you would like to continue to receive these newsletters, please include this address in your "friends list" so that it isn't blocked.

For some reason, some servers block the newsletters no matter what you try and do. I send these in small groups from my normal email. It's not a simple problem. If anyone thinks they might have an idea how to overcome the problem, I'd love to hear from you.

Emails sent to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au are currently automatically forwarded to rrwillis at internode.on.net. If you want to send an email to that address, replace the word "at" with the symbol @. I am trying not to put that address any place where it can be harvested by spam bots.

We don't want to add to the mass of email spam. If you don't want our newsletter, please send us an email and let us know. We'll then delete your name from our newsletter list.

Our email address is walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au.

Note. The program we use to send this newsletter has an automatic delete at the bottom. Clicking that link will delete you from the mailing list on the server but it will not delete you from our main database. My newsletter mailing program will not allow the auto delete to send me an email notifying me that a deletion has been made. If you want to be removed from all further mailings, please send an email to walkabout@bushwalkingholidays.com.au

If you know someone you think would enjoy this newsletter, please forward it to them. The more people who get it, the more likely it is that I'll be able to run the trips which might interest you.

Best wishes to all,
Russell Willis

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